Newcastle v Brighton predictions: @footyaccums' best bets

Domestic action returns this weekend, and we’re awfully excited around PP Towers. Now that Thomas Tuchel has been announced as the new England manager, all the hubbub surrounding Newcastle’s Eddie Howe can be put to bed, and he can fully concentrate on ongoings at St. James’ Park.

Toon host Brighton on Saturday afternoon and it promised to be a lively affair as both sides have only lost once so far this season.

Twitter tipsters @FootyAccums are back again looking to help you pocket some moolah. Here are their best Newcastle v Brighton betting tips.

Newcastle v Brighton predictions

Draw
Correct score: 1-1

WHEN: Saturday 19th of October, 3pm
WHERE: St James’ Park, Newcastle

The atmosphere at St. James’ Park is a mixed one coming into this game. A positive start to the campaign has tailed off somewhat with the Magpies now winless in their last three league games and possessing some issues in front of goal.

Not helped by the absence of Alexander Isak, Newcastle’s only goals in their last three games have come from the penalty spot and when Anthony Gordon failed to convert his spot kick against Everton, Eddie Howe’s side had to settle for a 0-0 draw.

It’s alarming for the hosts how poor they have been in front of goal considering they have amassed 43 shots in their last three games, generated an xG of 5.59 but have only scored twice. Even if you remove the xG from the three penalties they have been awarded, their xG total is 3.31 from which they haven’t scored at all.

There have been no such issues for visitors Brighton. 10 goals in their last four games have shown how clinical Hurzerler’s men can be, with their home game against Ipswich being the only time they’ve failed to find the net this season.

Joao Pedro was in good form for the Seagulls but has been absent through injury; however, it is a testament to the depth of squad Hurzerler has at his disposal that summer signing Georginio Rutter could come in and replace Pedro so effectively, scoring in each of his last two games.

Danny Welbeck is another who has started the season well, scoring four goals, including the winner over Spurs last time out, as well as registering one assist. His best-scoring campaign for the Seagulls is seven, so he is very much on course to beat that.

Fortunately for Newcastle, the Seagulls are a bit leaky at the back, having also conceded 10 goals in their last four games, possibly presenting an opportunity for the Magpies to rediscover their scoring form. Both Chelsea and Spurs were able to carve Brighton apart with ease at times, exploiting space behind their high line and sometimes disjointed press. That will be music to the ears of Anthony Gordon who thrives on having space to run into.

Newcastle might get fortunate again in this game anyway, with Brighton conceding penalties in two of their last three matches, but regardless, the Magpies should have enough quality in their attack to find the net against this open Brighton defence.

Newcastle Team News

Newcastle have been boosted by the return to training of forwards Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson. Isak is expected to be available, but caution is being taken with Wilson so the former Bournemouth man isn’t expected to feature.

Kieran Trippier went off injured in the draw with Everton and is still not in training, so could miss out on Saturday. The Magpies are still without fellow defenders Jamal Lascelles and Sven Botman to long-term injuries.

Brighton Team News

Brighton’s list of absentees continues to pile up. Adam Webster replaced Jan Paul van Hecke in the Brighton defence against Chelsea and Tottenham but now joins him on the treatment table, whilst Joao Pedro, Simon Adingra and James Milner are all still doubts having missed the win over Spurs.

Long-term absentee Matt O’Riley remains absent whilst it is presumed too early for Solly March to return from his knee injury, having not featured for almost a year.

Form Guide

Newcastle

Newcastle’s start to the season had been positive results-wise, but performances suggested there were likely to be issues if they didn’t improve. Since a 2-1 win over Wolves in mid-September, the Magpies’ only victory has been over League Two AFC Wimbledon in the Carabao Cup.

A respectable home draw with Manchester City was sandwiched between a defeat at Fulham and a 0-0 draw at Everton, making it three league games without a win for Eddie Howe’s men.

Brighton

Brighton’s start to life under Fabian Hurzerler has been impressive, although they too looked like they were heading for three games without a win at half-time of their last match with Tottenham. At 2-0 down, Brighton pulled off a spectacular comeback to win 3-2 meaning their only defeat of the campaign thus far came the week before at Stamford Bridge where they lost 4-2 to Chelsea.

Three league draws prior to that come with mixed perspectives. 1-1 with Arsenal in London was beyond expectations, but failure to beat Ipswich Town and Nottingham Forest at home were seen as disappointments. A 3-2 win over Wolves in the Carabao Cup came between those two draws in the league, setting up a tie with Liverpool in the 4th round.

Brighton had the better of this fixture last season, winning 3-1 at the Amex, whilst the game at St. James’ Park resulted in a 1-1 draw.

Newcastle v Brighton betting tips

Brighton haven’t won any of their last three trips to St. James’ Park but did collect a point when the two sides met in Newcastle last season.

The hosts have been struggling in front of goal of late, but they face a Seagulls side whose games have seen goals aplenty at both ends, which should present opportunities for Newcastle in this match, especially with Brighton missing a couple of defenders through injury.

The question is whether Newcastle can keep them out at the back themselves. Despite only conceding seven goals (4th best in the division) their only league clean sheets have come against Southampton and Everton, two of the lowest scoring sides in the division. Brighton, meanwhile, have scored at least two goals in seven of their nine games in all competitions.

These two teams have seen BTTS land in six of the last seven meetings and in each of the last four, which lends itself to there being goals for both sides in this one. The two teams sit side by side in a lot of underlying numbers this campaign (xG 10.5 – 10.8 and xG conceded 10.4 – 11.3) therefore we are expecting quite an evenly matched affair.

Our prediction, Newcastle 1-1 Brighton

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