Nobody predicted that Brentford v Wolves would end up being the best Premier League fixture of the weekend. Six of the eight goals came before halftime in an absolute belter of a match.
Most people would probably have picked Aston Villa v Man United as the standout game, but after a drab 0-0, there’s yet more pressure on United manager Erik ten Hag. His compatriot Ruud van Nistelrooy is now a firm favourite in the next Man Utd manager odds market.
Our football tipster and stats man Andrew Beasley is here to review the weekend’s action and analyze the emerging betting patterns.
The narratives for 2024/25 appear firmly set. The top three look largely unstoppable, having won 16 of their 21 collective matches.
At the bottom are four teams yet to celebrate a victory. Their managers won’t sleep easily through the international break, what with Sam Allardyce being available. Do you think Oliver Glasner enjoyed seeing Alan Pardew at Selhurst Park on Saturday?
Here are some less obvious trends and betting angles that fell into place this weekend.
City consistent conceding
Rodri only played 65 minutes in total this Premier League season, with Manchester City ‘winning’ 1-0 while he was on the pitch. His absence has unsurprisingly made the Cityzens a softer touch.
Last season, both teams scored in the first half of eight City matches, just two off the fewest of any team in the division. Yet a bet on that outcome has already paid out five times this term, including against Fulham on Saturday.
Remember the draw with Arsenal? Rodri went off in the first half, and the Gunners were level inside about a minute. With Ipswich and West Ham having scored in the first 20 minutes against City this season, it’s reasonable to assume anyone can.
Spot kickers not delivering
It’s not a proper Premier League weekend without some penalty controversy.
At Crystal Palace, Virgil van Dijk held Marc Guehi as a cross came into the Liverpool box, but referee Simon Hooper opted against awarding a penalty. He and his colleagues have been carrying this mindset a lot.
Last season, the average number of penalties per game was 0.28. It has dropped to 0.17 in 2024/25.
And up at Everton, the scriptwriters thought it too obvious if Anthony Gordon converted from the spot against his old club. The success rate for penalties was 89.7% last season but it’s just 75% so far this season.
If you bank on penalty takers in the goal scorer markets, it might be time for a rethink.
Gunners’ homeboy
It’s understandable if a player scores more of their goals in front of their own fans. The average goals by a Premier League home team are 1.56 per game, compared to 1.31 for away sides.
But Kai Havertz is taking this to new levels. His last seven Arsenal goals have been scored at the Emirates Stadium, as have nine of his last 10.
Havertz netted there just three minutes after Southampton took a shock lead on Saturday. Having already opened the scoring against Wolves, Brighton, and Paris Saint-Germain at home this season, you need to have Havertz in mind for goal scorer bets at the Emirates.
Semenyo cherry shots
Havertz scores so often because he’s among the top shot takers in England. It’s a list headed by Erling Haaland. I know, right? You’d never have guessed.
If that’s not a surprise, seeing Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo second in the chart certainly is. The former Newport County, Sunderland, and Bristol City forward has a level of consistency even Haaland can’t match too.
Semenyo had three shots in the Cherries’ 1-0 loss at Leicester on Saturday. After seven weeks of 2024/25, he is the only player in the Premier League to have hit that mark seven times.
The Bournemouth man averaged 2.99 shots per 90 minutes last season; he hasn’t taken a massive leap. His improved consistency means he’s always worth a look in Player Shots markets, though.
Foxes in both boxes
The rate of games in which both teams score has risen slightly from last season. This is despite Liverpool going from one of the top teams for this bet to the worst. Bloody Arne Slot makes them harder to score against.
Anyway, one of four matches this weekend with a nil in the score line occurred at the King Power, with Leicester collecting their first win. They were the only team to see both teams scoring in their first six matches, so the final unbroken streak has broken.
But remember that Bournemouth amassed 1.8 expected goals and five Opta-defined big chances, so they should really have found the net at least once. Leicester remain a very good ‘yes’ bet in the Both Teams to Score market.
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