Football Tips: Villa for Top 6 but can Forest and Leeds Survive?

Football tipster Shane O'Brien looks for some value in the end-of-season markets.

Premier League Top 6 and Relegation Best Bets 2022/23


Premier League Betting Tips

Aston Villa To Finish in the Top Six
Nottingham Forest to Avoid Relegation
Leeds to Avoid Relegation

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Aston Villa To Finish in the Top Six

The odds may be stacked against them following Brighton’s last-gasp win over Manchester United and Liverpool’s new-found form, but it would be foolish to write Villa off just yet.

Unai Emery’s side are currently one point behind sixth-placed Brighton having played two games more, but Brighton’s two games-in-hand are games against City and Newcastle, so it would be surprising if they even managed to extend their lead over Villa to three points.

Brighton also have to go to Arsenal as well and face potential banana skins against Everton and Southampton, with the Saints already taking points off Manchester United and Arsenal on the road this season.

Villa, meanwhile, face a tricky trip to Anfield but should be confident of beating Wolves and Tottenham before a potential final-day showdown with Brighton at Villa Park.

Currently priced at 15/2, they are an attractive price to finish in the top six.

Nottingham Forest to Avoid Relegation

Nottingham Forest’s survival hopes took a major blow with the concession of two late goals against Brentford recently, but they still have a decent shout of pulling themselves out of the relegation scrap.

Monday’s game against Southampton will be key to Forest’s chances; win and they give themselves some (temporary) breathing space; lose and it’s probably goodnight and thanks for calling.

Even with a win on Monday, Forest will likely have to pick up more points before the season’s end and face a tricky fixture list on paper, with trips to Chelsea and in-form Crystal Palace and a home meeting with Arsenal.

However, Chelsea seem to be giving out three points to every team they face and Forest will hope that they can get an away result for just the fifth time this season when they travel to Stamford Bridge.

The fixture list has also been kind to Forest in the sense that the Premier League title race will probably be wrapped up by the time Arsenal come to town, meaning that Arsenal will have nothing to play for.

Their trip to Palace on the final day will similarly see a team facing relegation up against a team on the metaphorical beach, giving Forest hope of picking up invaluable points.

Jack Harrison, Leeds, April 2023

Leeds to Avoid Relegation

Big Sam has his work cut out for him if he is to keep Leeds in the Premier League and it doesn’t get more difficult than his opening two games. A trip to Manchester City this Saturday will almost certainly end in defeat, while Leeds would do well to take anything off Newcastle when they come to Elland Road next week.

However, Leeds end the season with two winnable games. First up is a trip to fellow relegation rivals West Ham, who could well be safe by the penultimate game of the season.

Leeds’s final game of the season is a home meeting with a dreadfully out-of-form Tottenham, who have taken just one point from their last available 12 and have the look of a team who can’t wait for the season to end. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Leeds should be comfortable favourites for that Tottenham game on the final day.

With Everton facing tough games against Brighton and Man City, and Leicester facing even tougher games against Liverpool and Newcastle, Leeds will give themselves a huge chance of staying up if they can pick up six points in their final four games.

That might have been a stretch under Javi Gracia, but Sam Allardyce has been in this situation several times before and can inspire his new players to Premier League safety.


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