Football Tips: Sam Farley’s best bets for Scotland v Greece include a 12/1 shot

Tipster Sam Farley delivers his top picks, and reckons Scotland are in for a long night.

By / Football Tips / 2 days ago

The Nations League rolls into Hampden Park on Sunday evening when Scotland take on Greece.

Thursday’s first leg ended in a 0-1 win for the Scottish, and they’ll be looking to take full advantage of their boisterous home support to help them over the line.

Ahead of a big night for Steve Clarke’s side, tipster Sam Farley has delivered his best bets for the game, including a correct score punt.

Scotland v Greece Betting Tips

Greece to win
Konstantinos Karetsas to score or assist
Greece to win 2-0

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

WHEN: Sunday, 23rd of March, 5pm
WHERE: Hampden Park, Glasgow
TV: BBC Scotland, BBC iPlayer

Greece to win

Scotland return from Athens with a 1-0 lead in their play off and will be hopeful of doing enough at Hampden Park to ensure League A status for the next Nations League campaign.

However, things might not be quite that simple. This is a Greek team that has four away games on the bounce, including that famous win over England at Wembley.

We also need to consider what we saw over in Greece in the first leg. Scotland may have won, but Greece were the superior team on the day.

They out-shot Scotland by a staggering 24 to eight, although it has to be said that only one landed on target. They need to be far more clinical here, although, with Benfica’s Vangelis Pavlidis up front, they have a player who is more than capable of big performances, having scored a brace in that win over England and a hat-trick against Barcelona in the Champions League.

It’s unlikely that Greece will dominate possession in Scotland to the extent that they did on home soil but they should still shade it, and with slightly better finishing and having learned the lessons from Thursday, they’ll be in a far better position to succeed.

They’re a big price to win this, and with Scotland knowing a draw is enough, we should see Steve Clarke’s team play conservatively and allow Greece to come at them.

Konstantinos Karetsas to score or assist

The first leg of this tie was an interesting game, but for Greek fans, it might end up being long remembered as Konstantinos Karetsas’s debut. The 17-year-old has been a regular for Genk this season in the Jupiler Pro League and impressed when coming on as a second-half sub.

He instantly improved the team following his halftime introduction, and Ivan Jovanovic surely has to start him on Sunday. After a nervous beginning that saw a couple of overhit passes, he grew into the game, and his dribbling ability really shone, as did his willingness to attack, something that bodes well for him to score or assist. Unlike some debutants, he really took the game to Scotland, with some deft crossing and acrobatic attempts at goal.

Although only coming on at halftime, he still led the team in shots (five), blocked shots (two), and had the second most crosses with eight.

He was really involved in everything in that second half and looks like somebody on the cusp of a great career. At a big price, he’s worth backing to be a difference-maker on Sunday. At 11/1, he’s also a big price to open the scoring, too.

Greece to win 2-0

We’ve covered Greece winning at a punter-friendly price, as well as the dangers that Pavlidis and Karetsas threaten. So, we’re doubling down on the win and backing a 2-0 correct score.

There are a couple of reasons why this makes sense. We saw in the Nations League group stage that Greece can score; in all but one of their games, they bagged at least two goals.

If they take the lead, then it’s really game on in the tie, and Scotland will then need to start really pushing for it, adapting the defensive shape that they had for large periods on Thursday and making them susceptible to being hit on the break when spaces open up.

The other major issue for Scotland is a lack of goals. Che Adams isn’t good enough for this level, and the other striking options seemingly can’t cut the mustard either.

Clarke simply can’t keep relying on Scott McTominay to dig his team out of holes again and again. McTominay is becoming a beloved figure in Naples and does have the ability to cause problems for defences, but he’s not an out-and-out goalscorer even when in an advanced position.

Scotland created so little on Thursday, and were it not for their penalty, which, let’s be honest, was very generous, they wouldn’t have scored at all.

Scotland v Greece Betting Tips

Greece to win
Konstantinos Karetsas to score or assist
Greece to win 2-0

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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