We’ve got some great matches on Sunday night in the Nations League.
In the League A Play Offs, France face Croatia, Germany take on Italy, Portugal entertain Denmark and Spain host Netherlands. Elsewhere, Belgium take on Ukraine in the League A/B Relegation clash.
Football tipster, Paddy Murphy, has dived into the best of the fixtures to find five value picks.
With this being a five-fold Acca, too, Paddy’s footy acca betting offer kicks in, so we’ll get our stake back if just one leg lets us down.
Sunday’s Nations League Acca tips
*All games kick off at 7:45pm
France v Croatia – Both teams to score, yes
Germany v Italy – Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals
Portugal v Denmark – Under 2.5 goals
Spain v Netherlands – Both teams to score, yes
Belgium v Ukraine – Both teams to score, yes
- An Acca with these bets pays at approximately 26/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
France v Croatia – Both teams to score, yes
Nations League match at the Stade de France, Saint-Denis
TV: Amazon Prime, 7:45pm
While the first leg ended 2-0 to Croatia it doesn’t really paint a full picture of the game. Dominik Livakovic, Croatia’s goalkeeper, had a fine match, making six saves, and both ended with an xG of 1.43 and 1.49, respectively. On home soil here, France will be eager to get things right and get into a semifinal against either the Netherlands or Spain.
Thursday night’s victory was Croatia’s second in a row over the French, and it really wouldn’t be surprising if they pulled off a third win here.
Granted, France are massive favourites, and Croatia’s away from over the last few months hasn’t been great, but they have a good record when it comes to scoring goals on the road, and while it might look like France have a good record of home clean sheets, we have to remember those clean sheets came against Isreal, Canada, Luxembourg and Gibraltar and two against a Belgium side who are all over the shop.
France need to win and will push forward, and that’s exactly the trap Croatia will exploit.
Germany v Italy – Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals
Nations League match at the Westfalenstadion, Dortmund
TV: Amazon Prime, 7:45pm
Germany came from being 1-0 down at halftime to beat the Italians 1-2 at the San Siro on Thursday night. There was very little between them other than that deciding goal. xG stood at 1.18 and 1.11 with six to four in terms of shots on goal and two to five in terms of goalkeeper saves.
Italy haven’t beaten Germany since the 2012 Euros when a certain Mario Balotelli scored a brace in the semifinal in Warsaw. Since then, Germany have beaten them twice on German soil, 5-2 in June 2022 and 4-1 back in 2016, and also beat them on penalties at the 2016 Euros in the quarter-finals in Bordeaux.
It’s tough to pick a winner here, but both teams have found their scoring boots of late. Germany have banged in 13 over their last five games, while Italy have scored nine over the same period. Both teams will surely be scoring here, and we can certainly see one of them bagging twice.
Portugal v Denmark – Under 2.5 goals
Nations League match at the Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon
TV: Amazon Prime, 7:45pm
Rasmus Hojlund surprised us all on Thursday night when he did something he was actually supposed to do and scored a rare goal. Portugal were terrible, and Christian Ronaldo didn’t look too impressed when Hojlund did ‘his’ celebration. They had two shots on goal, and their xG was just 0.51. Denmark’s was 2.78, although we have to say that Christian Eriksen missed a first-half penalty.
Anyone interested in this match is going to lean towards a Portugal win. Of course, they are; just compare the two squads. But hold your donkeys. Portugal have lost to Denmark, drawn with Croatia (fair enough; they’re good), drawn with Scotland, who aren’t good, and beat Poland twice, who are probably the worst Poland side in living memory.
Saying that, Denmark’s win over Portugal was a shock. They’d recently been beaten by Spain twice and drawn with Switzerland and Serbia. The Danes will sit back and soak up all the pressure here, and apart from those Poland games, Portugal has been struggling for goals.
This one’s going to be tight and tense and tough to watch if you’re a fan of the home side.
Spain v Netherlands – Both teams to score, yes
Nations League match at the Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
TV: Amazon Prime, 7:45pm
Arsenal’s Mikel Merino rescued a draw in the 93rd minute in the first leg on Thursday night. The Spaniards had the better chances in the game; they had more shots on goal and a higher xG, so you couldn’t exactly say they didn’t deserve it, but Ronald Koeman’s Dutch side will still have been kicking themselves after squandering their lead.
It’s advantage Spain now as they return to home soil where they’ve lost just one of their last 12 games. They’ve scored 13 over their last five at home, conceding four, while the Dutch have won just one of their last five away (non-tournament) games, drawing two and losing two, both of which were against Germany.
That looks bad for Koeman’s side, but over their last 20 fixtures in all competitions, they’ve only been held scoreless twice, and while Spain’s home record is impressive, against the better sides, they don’t keep many clean sheets. Spain to win has no value because the Dutch have recorded so many draws of late, it’s got to be a Both Teams to Score pick.
Belgium v Ukraine – Both teams to score, yes
Nations League match at the Cegeka Arena, Genk
TV: Amazon Prime, 7:45pm
Belgium are an absolute mess, it’s pure car crash stuff at the moment. They are winless over their last six fixtures now, and Rudi Garcia has a job on his hands. They’ve such a great squad, but the problem with Belgium has always been about unity, and it probably always will be, but let’s not get political.
Can Belgium beat Ukraine here? Of course, they can. Will they? That’s a different kettle of carp. They have to if they’re going to remain in League A, and Ukraine can take their place here, but the away side’s late run to a place in the playoffs is a bit suspect. They’ve beaten Albania and Georgia, drawn with Czechia and Georgia, and lost to both Albania and Czechia, so they’ve been in good form of late, true, but they’ve not been playing against tough sides.
Having said all that, the Ukrainians are 3-1 up after the first leg. That’s quite the cushion, and an early goal from them will kill the match. Should Belgium score first or even then get a second, Ukraine can still sneak one and see out the tie.
Nations League Acca tips
France v Croatia – Both teams to score, yes
Germany v Italy – Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals
Portugal v Denmark – Under 2.5 goals
Spain v Netherlands – Both teams to score, yes
Belgium v Ukraine – Both teams to score, yes
- An Acca with these bets pays at approximately 26/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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