We’re back to some World Cup Qualifiers on Monday night. England face Latvia, Poland take on Malta, Bosnia host Cyprus, Romania travel to San Marino where they’ll surely fill their boots, and Albania entertain Andorra.
PP Football tipster Paddy Murphy has dived into the stats and markets for the above fixtures to find five value picks.
With this being a five-fold Acca, too, Paddy’s footy acca betting offer kicks in, so we’ll get our stake back if just one leg lets us down.
Monday’s World Cup Qualifiers Acca tips
*All games kick off at 7:45pm
Albania v Andorra – Under 2.5 goals
Bosnia & Herzegovina v Cyprus – Both teams to score, yes
England v Latvia – England goal range, 2-4
Poland v Malta – Robert Lewandowski first goalscorer
San Marino v Romania – Romania -2
- An Acca with these bets pays at approximately 27/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Albania v Andorra – Under 2.5 goals
Nations League match at the Air Albania Stadium, Tirana
TV: Viaplay YouTube, 7:45pm
This is certainly an interesting round of fixtures. Have we ever seen five games all kicking off at the same time with such clear favourites? This just means we have to go deep into the markets and find where the value is.
Albania are very short-odd to take the three points here, but they’ve won the same amount of games as Andorra have over their last five, a paltry one each. They’ve scored four over their last five on home soil, but three of them came in their 3-1 win over Azerbaijan.
The away side also have a problem when it comes to scoring, they’ve bagged a grand total of two goals over their last 10 fixtures, and just one over their last 10 away games.
Only three of their last 10 combined games have seen three goals or more. The value here is most certainly in backing a lack of them.
Bosnia & Herzegovina v Cyprus – Both teams to score, yes
Nations League match at the Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica
TV: Viaplay YouTube, 7:45pm
Bosnia has won a total of one of their last 13 games in all competitions and just one of their last six on home soil, and that was against the mighty Liechtenstein, so we can’t exactly read too much into that. Seeing their odds so short to beat Cyprus seems a tad off, seeing as the away side have won four of their last eight games, but they were both against Lithuania and San Marino.
For comparison, Lithuania is ranked just one place above Liechtenstein in the European FIFA rankings, and San Marino is at the bottom of the list.
Bosnia’s opening day win over Romania was their first in 12, but when they were enduring that long run of bad form at home, they were scoring goals, scoring four over their last five on home soil at least, albeit they conceded nine.
Cyprus have scored five over their last three games and, on the road, have rattled the net eight times over their last five, four of which were against San Marino, but if we scratch that one, four away goals is still fairly acceptable.
Bosnia are expected to turn a corner in this campaign, and they’ve got a good mix of experience and youth among the ranks, but that defence is still not looking exactly trustworthy, and the away side have shown that they’re well able to nick a goal.
England v Latvia – England goal range, 2-4
Nations League match at Wembley, London
TV: ITV, 7:45pm
England made light work of Albania on Friday last, but Thomas Tuchel played it smart by biding his team in taking over England.
The Three Lions aren’t going to be really tested until they face Serbia, and that’s not until September. Yes, the Senegal friendly in June might be fun if Senegal bring their best players, and England do, too. But we all know that England players don’t take friendlies seriously, and so most will be asking their club doctors for a sick note.
That aside, we all know what’s going to happen here. Latvia will stand in the middle of the park for their national anthem and then camp out on the edge of their penalty box. England will huff and puff and score one or two before halftime, and they’ll repeat the process in the second half.
Poland v Malta – Robert Lewandowski first goalscorer
Nations League match at the Stadion Narodowy, Warsaw
TV: Amazon Prime, 7:45pm
Lithuania made Poland work hard for their 1-0 win in Warsaw on Friday night. Sure, you’d have expected Poland to win, but let’s cut them some slack. Poland and Lithuania used to be a joint kingdom, so while the countries are on mostly friendly terms, when it comes to sports there can be a bit of needle.
The Poles have been very bad for quite a while now. That win was their first in six, and on home soil, they’ve won just one of their last five, although we must point out they’d won four of their five prior to those.
Malta have won three of their last five games, but they were against Andorra, Moldova, and Liechtenstein, so they’re not worth much. Away from home, they’ve lost 4-0 to Italy, 2-0 to England, 7-1 to Czechia, 2-0 to Moldova, and they beat Andorra 0-1 last September.
Poland will see this game as an easy three points, so we expect Michal Probierz to put out a full-strength starting XI, and with Robert Lewandowski in such great form for Barcelona this season and bagging that goal on Friday night, we’re going to back him to open the scoring here.
San Marino v Romania – Romania -2
Nations League match at the Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle, Serravalle
TV: Viaplay YouTube, 7:45pm
Romania lost their opening qualifier against Bosnia on Friday night, and it was a game they should have been nailed on to win. Conceding an early goal, they were playing catch up for most of the game, but with 15 goal attempts, nine shots from inside the penalty area, and possession of 66%, they should have, at least, come away with a draw.
Normal service will resume here as the away side have enjoyed a run of six wins in a row before that loss to Bosnia, and we all know how bad San Marino are. Sure, they’ve taken three points from their last two home games, but they were against Gibraltar and Liechtenstein, and of their last seven home games, they’ve conceded at least three goals in four of them.
Match this with Romania’s recent goalscoring record of netting at least three in five of their last seven fixtures, and we are definitely taking the away side in the -2 Handicap market here.
Monday’s Internation football betting tips
Albania v Andorra – Under 2.5 goals
Bosnia & Herzegovina v Cyprus – Both teams to score, yes
England v Latvia – England goal range, 2-4
Poland v Malta – Robert Lewandowski first goalscorer
San Marino v Romania – Romania -2
- An Acca with these bets pays at approximately 27/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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