Is it coming home in 2026? The Age of Tuchel begins on Friday night at Wembley for an expectant England…
Thomas Tuchel takes his England bow with what should be a comfortable evening against Albania, where he’ll be hoping to get World Cup 2026 qualification off to a strong start.
The German has done a good job of fielding media questions this week on the national anthem, but his side need to put on a strong show to avoid further scrutiny, especially having rooted through the archives of English players in his squad selection.
Ahead of a big night, Oli Nixon has whipped up four value plays which are covered by Paddy Power’s Super Sub offer, meaning if a player is substituted, the pick carries over to his replacement.
Friday’s World Cup qualifier tips
7:45pm – England v Albania
Kristjan Asllani to have 1+ shots
Kristjan Asllani to be fouled 1+ times
Nedim Bajrami to have 1+ shots
Jude Bellingham to be fouled 2+ times
- You can also add Oli’s picks into a Bet Builder which pays at approximately 6/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
England v Albania
World Cup qualifier at Wembley Stadium, London
TV: ITVX/ITV Player, 7:45pm
Kristjan Asllani to have 1+ shots
Whilst Albania are undoubtedly underdogs in this game, their recent data suggests they’re capable of attacking stronger opposition, averaging nearly 10 shots per game across their last 15 competitive matches. That includes landing 10, 15 and eight shots at Euro 2024 against Spain, Croatia and Italy respectively, and so they’re no mugs.
Across those matches, Kristjan Asllani has been the most potent attacking threat, averaging 2.13 shots per 90 and having at least one shot in all but two games. That includes having had four efforts against Spain and two each against Croatia and Italy, so he shouldn’t be phased by a trip to Wembley.
Kristjan Asllani to be fouled 1+ times
As well as being competitive in matches, Albania also draw plenty of opposition fouls, averaging 15.3 free kicks per game. Even though Spain and Croatia dominated the ball against them at the Euros, they still committed 15 fouls each, demonstrating how well the Albanians draw contact. Tuchel’s last three club teams have given up 12.5 free kicks per game on average. so again that data suggests Albania’s trend can continue in this game.
Asllani is one of their most fouled players, drawing an average of 1.86 infringements per 90 in his last 15 starts for his country. He’s only failed to be fouled in two of those games, and having drawn three against Spain, he should be able to pick up at least one in a game which will have a similar pattern.
Nedim Bajrami to have 1+ shots
In Nations League action in October, Greece showed that England are far from solid on home soil when they managed 12 shots. Tuchel has also managed teams who are usually dominant in most matches in his last few jobs, however, his Bayern side allowed 10.29 shots per game and at PSG and Chelsea they conceded 9.03 and 10.16 shot per game respectively. All this data suggests Albania can have some joy in attack on Friday night.
One Albanian who is not shy in front of goal is Nedim Bajrami. The Rangers midfielder has taken 1.39 shots per 90 in Albania’s last 15 games and had three in three games at Euro 2024, including scoring the opener against Italy. At club level this season, 48% of his shots have come from outside the box, and with Albania likely to be restricted to efforts from range, he feels a good bet for at least one frustrated shot.
Jude Bellingham to be fouled 2+ times
Closing out our Bet Builder is England’s golden boy Jude Bellingham. The Real Madrid superstar has taken up the mantle of being the Three Lions latest hero, his last-minute bicycle kick against Slovakia at Euro 2024 still lives long in the memory.
So strong is Bellingham’s impact on games, opponents have taken to kicking him as often as possible, to ensure he cannot influence games as much as he’d like. For Real Madrid he’s been fouled 2.39 times per 90, and for his country, he’s drawn 24 fouls in his last eight starts, with at least two in all eight of those. With plenty of strong foulers in Albania’s midfield, the streak looks set to continue.
Friday’s World Cup qualifier betting tips
7:45pm – England v Albania
Kristjan Asllani to have 1+ shots
Kristjan Asllani to be fouled 1+ times
Nedim Bajrami to have 1+ shots
Jude Bellingham to be fouled 2+ times
- You can also add Oli’s picks into a Bet Builder which pays at approximately 6/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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