Football Tips: We’ve got 5 value picks for 3 Sunday’s derbies in the UK

PP football tipster Oli Nixon has five value picks for Sunday's clashes.

By / Football Tips / 16 hours ago

Sunday is not just the first domestic cup final of the season; it’s Derby Day across multiple leagues, and we all know that victory in these ties means as much, if not more, to most fans than lifting any trophy. The glory of beating your rivals and rubbing it in their faces at work on Monday is a feeling like no other so why not make it even better with some winners?

Kicking off at 12:30pm, we have the Sheffield derby in the Championship, while north of the border in the Premiership, Celtic take on Rangers. Then, at 1:30pm, Arsenal entertains Chelsea in the Premier League.

Paddy’s football tipster Oli Nixon, has five monster picks for us, so let’s get stuck in. 

Sunday’s football betting tips

12:30pm Sheffield Wednesday v Sheffield United
Anel Ahmedhodzic to have 1+ shots on target &
Anel Ahmedhodzic to score

12:30pm Celtic v Rangers
Celtic goalkeeper to make 4+ saves

1:30pm Arsenal v Chelsea
Moises Caicedo to commit 1+ fouls on Martin Odegaard
Thomas Partey to commit 1+ fouls on Enzo Fernandez

Sheffield Wednesday v Sheffield United – Anel Ahmedhodzic to have 1+ shots on target & Anel Ahmedhodzic to score

Championship match at Hillsborough, Sheffield
TV: Sky Sports+, 12:30pm

The Steel City derby takes place at 12:30, with Wednesday desperate to put a dent in United’s promotion push and, in turn, keep themselves in the mix for the play-offs. This is the first derby at Hillsborough since 2019, and the fact there is so much on the line for both clubs makes it even more mouthwatering, even if there’s only been one goal across the last four meetings.

One thing which is likely to feature heavily in what is set to be a tight game is Sheffield Wednesday’s inability to defend set pieces. The Owls have conceded the joint most set plays of all teams in the Championship with a whopping 17 and it’s a weakness that the Blades exposed in the reverse fixture where Tyrese Campbell netted the only goal from a set piece.

With such a glaring weakness, it makes sense to side with a Sheffield United centre back for shots and goals. Having scored 11 goals in his 102 appearances for Chris Wilder’s side, Anel Ahmedhodzic feels the best option. He’s only had two shots on target all season, but they both found the back of the net, one from a corner and another from a throw-in and so if he’s going to hit the target, we might as well be on the anytime goalscorer too.

Celtic v Rangers – Celtic goalkeeper to make 4+ saves

Premiership match at the Celtic Park, Glasgow
TV: Sky Sports Football, 12:30pm

Celtic have all but wrapped up another title in Scotland but will have revenge on their mind after losing the reverse fixture, their first Old Firm defeat in eight meetings. Their home record of just three goals conceded in 14 suggests that doing the double over their fierce rivals is unlikely for Rangers, but with no jeopardy for them in the league, they can throw their all into earning the Glasgow bragging rights.

Despite Rangers’ torrid recent record in this fixture, it’s not for lack of trying. Across the last four meetings, Celtic’s goalkeeper has been forced into 20 saves, with this bet landing in each of the last three. Even though Barry Ferguson’s men led from the 7th minute in the reverse fixture, they still forced Kasper Schmeichel into six saves.

Such a good recent record of saves in this fixture for Celtic coupled with Rangers desire to do the double to rescue something from their season makes the price on offer for 4 Schmeichel saves appealing.

Arsenal v Chelsea – Moises Caicedo to commit 1+ fouls on Martin Odegaard & Thomas Partey to commit 1+ fouls on Enzo Fernandez

Premier League match at the Emirates Stadium, London
TV: Premier Sports Premier League & Sky Sports Main Event

Our final battle between local rivals takes place in London, where Arsenal host Chelsea with both sides in need of points, having secured their path to the quarter-finals of their respective European competitions in midweek.

A Derby Day article without mention of fouls or cards would be like St Patrick’s Day without Guinness, and we’re not about to even consider either possibility. With the likes of Thomas Partey, Enzo Fernandez, and Moises Caicedo all in close proximity on the pitch, this one feels ripe for some foul match-ups.

Caicedo has committed the second most fouls of any Premier League player this season and committed two fouls in the reverse fixture. One of those fouls was on Norwegian midfielder Martin Odegaard, who has been felled eight times in his last eight matches at home. When Caicedo makes 1.97 per 90 minutes, he looks a nice price to bring him down again.

Speaking of players who are fouled regularly, in his last eight starts, Enzo Fernandez has drawn a huge 18 infringements. The Argentinian midfielder has been kicked all over the place and will be opposed by Thomas Partey, who makes over a foul a game across his career. In his last two games against the Blues, he’s made two fouls in each, and if he repeats that trick, Enzo is one of the most likely recipients

Saturday’s football betting tips

Sheffield Wednesday v Sheffield United
Anel Ahmedhodzic to have 1+ shots on target &
Anel Ahmedhodzic to score

Celtic v Rangers
Celtic goalkeeper to make 4+ saves

Arsenal v Chelsea
Moises Caicedo to commit 1+ fouls on Martin Odegaard
Thomas Partey to commit 1+ fouls on Enzo Fernandez

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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