It will be all eyes on Anfield tonight as the Champions League rolls into town with Liverpool leading PSG 1-0 ahead of their last 16 second leg showdown.
Harvey Elliott’s late goal ensured a Parisian heist for Arne Slot last week and the Reds will be looking to harness the power of the home crowd to drive them into the quarter finals.
Andy Robson is on Anfield duty, and four of his picks here are covered by Paddy’s Super Sub offer, which means that if your man is substituted, the pick carries over to his replacement. Let’s get his Liverpool v PSG betting tips.
Liverpool v PSG Bet Builder tips
Ryan Gravenberch to commit 1+ fouls
Vitinha to be fouled 1+ times
Over 4.5 PSG corners
Mohamed Salah to score or assist
Alisson to make 3+ saves
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 7/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Further Bet Builder stats are available on Andy’s Opta-powered Bet Builder stats tool, which is free to use on his website, Andy’s Bet Club. It’s also showcasing Cheltenham Festival Betting Tips, with a bunch of free horse racing data tools to help you bet smarter.
WHEN: Tuesday 11th of March, 8pm
WHERE: Anfield, Liverpool
TV: Amazon Prime
Ryan Gravenberch to commit 1+ fouls
Ryan Gravenberch is crucial to how Liverpool play, the central midfielder is key in pushing the ball through the thirds and acting as a connector between the backline and the dangerous attacking quartet. His role naturally sees him win a lot of fouls with Gravenberch very clever in receiving and turning on the ball.
Gravenberch has won five fouls across his eight Champions League appearances this season (0.68 per 90) and has won 38 fouls across his 29 Premier League appearances this season (1.38 per 90). His promising numbers over a larger sample size suggest he is quite consistent when it comes to winning fouls.
The midfield battle will be key here, there is a real clash of styles with Liverpool boasting the physical advantage in the middle of the park, but PSG’s midfield are definitely more technically sound. Gravenberch was fouled once in the initial meeting between the sides, in which PSG only committed three fouls. We can expect those numbers to rise, as PSG are now the away side and may have to commit more tactical fouls in order to stop Liverpool counter attacking.
Vitinha to be fouled 1+ times
Vitinha has won 11 fouls across his 11 Champions League appearances this season (1.13 per 90). The central midfielder is crucial to how PSG play and sits at the heart of their midfield, it’s clear Luis Enrique trusts him to control the game and he certainly did that in the first leg. Vitinha made 109 passes in Paris, more than any other player on the pitch, showcasing his ability in that area.
His style of play naturally draws fouls, especially against a side like Liverpool who are so aggressive in pressing the opposition in their own half. This is best evidenced by the fact that 58 of the 94 fouls Liverpool have committed in the Champions League this season have come in the opponents half, meaning that over 60% of their infringements in Europe this season have come in there.
Vitinha will be up against Dominik Szoboszlai, who committed one foul in the first leg, and averages 1.61 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League. Vitinha was fouled once in the first leg, unsurprisingly in his own half as a result of the Liverpool press.
Over 4.5 PSG corners
PSG racked up 14 corners in the first leg, as Luis Enrique’s side were effective in sustaining pressure in Liverpool’s half, with the Reds penned in.
They are unlikely to have that many corners again here but their record across the Champions League as a whole is quite promising. PSG have won 78 corners across their 11 games in the competition this season (7.09 per game).
Liverpool have been pretty dominant in Europe in 2024/25 but not without withstanding serious pressure from the opposition. They’ve conceded 5+ corners in five of their nine assignments in the Champions League this season.
Mohamed Salah to score or assist
This selection landed in the first leg thanks to Super Sub with Harvey Elliot coming off the bench to fire in the winner in a nod to Liverpool’s impressive depth which keeps them in games with the options they have on the bench.
Salah’s blank against PSG brought to an end a nine game run with either a goal or an assist for the 32 year old, he didn’t take too long to get back to it with a brace against Southampton in preparation for this second leg. Salah has registered seven goal contributions across his eight appearances in the Champions League this season (3 goals, 4 assists).
Liverpool only had two shots in the first game which is a total we can expect to rise substantially given the extra spaces that will appear as PSG push for an equaliser to get back in the tie. Liverpool and Salah in particular thrive in these situations, the Reds will have greater licence to get forward in front of the Anfield crowd, which should give him more opportunities to register a goal contribution here.
Alisson to make 3+ saves
PSG’s attacking pedigree is undeniable, Luis Enrique has assembled a balanced and young side which is unlike the egocentric teams of past campaigns – but despite their improved temperament and togetherness, this may still prove a step too far in Europe against a Liverpool side that look unbeatable at the moment.
Part of that superiority over other sides in Europe is down to Alisson, arguably the best keeper in the world. He showcased his ability with nine saves in the first leg, PSG may have looked totally dominant in the game but their flurry of efforts only returned an xG of 1.78, which indicates Liverpool were effective in controlling the number of truly dangerous chances afforded to the Parisians. This is best illustrated by the fact 16 of their attempts in the first leg were from outside the box.
This tendency to let fly may cost PSG in terms of progressing through to the next round, but it aids our selection here. PSG will get chances in the game purely due to the quality they possess in forward areas, but Alisson has already shown he can match their quality with goalkeeping brilliance. The Brazilian has made 3+ saves in four of his nine Champions League appearances this season while PSG have drawn 3+ saves from the opposition keeper in eight of their 11 Champions League assignments.
Liverpool v PSG betting tips
Ryan Gravenberch to commit 1+ fouls
Vitinha to be fouled 1+ times
Over 4.5 PSG corners
Mohamed Salah to score or assist
Alisson to make 3+ saves
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 7/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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