Football Tips: Matthew O’Regan’s Saturday EFL Best Bets make a 15/1 treble

Our tipster Matthew O'Regan has fancies in the Championship, League One and League Two.

By / Football Tips / 6 hours ago

We’ve got another EFL slate and Matthew O’Regan has hunted out plenty of value including his NAP, Next Best and Longshots.

EFL Saturday Betting Tips

All games kick off at 3pm on Saturday

NAP
Burnley v Luton – Burnley to win and under 3.5 goals

Next Best
Birmingham v Lincoln – Birmingham to win and under 3.5 goals

Longshot
Burton v Bolton – Bolton to win and both teams to score, yes

Best of the rest
Wrexham v Rotherham – Wrexham to win
Tranmere v Bromley – Under 2.5 goals

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

NAP: Burnley v Luton – Burnley to win and under 3.5 goals

On Tuesday, the unthinkable happened. Burnley conceded a league goal. When Yousef Salech scored after 42 minutes for Cardiff, it marked the first time James Trafford had conceded in 2025. It is March. Since Kwado Baah scored for Watford at Turf Moor, Christmas has been and gone, we have entered a new year and TikTok was banned and then unbanned – all since Burnley last conceded a league goal and Luton won a game of football.

Despite their tremendous defence finally being breached, the most important thing was another three points in their pursuit of automatic promotion. Scott Parker’s side sit two points off Sheffield United in second and five off table toppers Leeds. The Clarets have conceded just ten goals this season, with games at Turf Moor averaging just 1.53 goals. Of their 17 games at home, 15 have seen three or less goals.

Relegated from the Premier League last year were Luton. The Hatters surprised many by reaching the pinnacle of English football and put in some brave performances but were ultimately relegated. Optimism was high heading into this season, with their recruiting of top Championship talents seemingly boding well for the campaign ahead.

However, this has yet to materialise for The Hatters who sit 22nd in the league, five points from safety. Rob Edwards was sacked and replaced with Wycombe manager Matt Bloomfield who has struggled to get a tune from an out-of-sorts side. Saturday’s cagey 1-0 win over Portsmouth was the 41-year-olds first win from nine games but his side are still bang in trouble.

The main worry is the away form. Luton have lost 14 of their last 15 away games in all competitions, with a smash-and-grab 1-1 draw at Hillsborough the only game where they avoided defeat. Only basement boys Plymouth have a worse away record than Luton’s five points.

Scoring goals has also been a real issue – no side has scored fewer goals. Heading to a Burnley side who boast an incredible defence, it may be another disappointing away day for the travelling Hatters faithful.

1/1
Burnley And Under 3.5 WDW & O/U 3.5 Goals

Next Best – Birmingham v Lincoln – Birmingham to win and under 3.5 goals

Unsurprisingly, Birmingham have taken League One by storm. The Blues sit nine points clear at the top of the table with a game in hand on the chasing pack. Chris Davies has by far the best squad and biggest budget at his disposal and is making the most of it.

Birmingham are unbeaten at home, taking 45 points from a possible 51, conceding just seven goals in the process. Games at St. Andrews have averaged 2.18 goals, with under 3.5 goals landing in 14/17 games (82%).

Lincoln have had a disappointing season and now have nothing to play for in 12th. Michael Skubala is under pressure, but a 4-1 win over Crawley midweek has bided him some time. Away from home, The Imps have picked up just 21 points from 18 games, with these matches averaging 2.6 goals. Of these 18 matches, 14 have seen three or less goals.

1/1
Birmingham And Under 3.5 WDW & O/U 3.5 Goals

Longshot – Burton v Bolton – Bolton to win and both teams to score, yes

Burton looked dead and buried until the experienced Gary Bowyer was appointed to steady the ship. The Brewers have taken 21 points from his 16 matches – a run that has seen them move to within three points of safety.

The 51-year-old has also improved an impotent attack, only failing to score in four games under him- with three of these coming away at Birmingham, Barnsley and Wycombe. Bowyer has shown flexibility in his tactics but will look to set his team up on the front foot in their desperate please for wins.

Bolton made the decision to sack long-serving manager Ian Evatt after a poor run of results that saw them lingering outside the playoffs. Steven Schumacher was appointed as his replacement and has fired The Trotters just one point off the playoffs.

Under his guise their games have been entertaining, averaging 3.8 goals. The 0-0 draw at Wrexham – despite a combined 3.26 xG is the blemish on the BTTS record, with Bolton winning and both teams scoring in four of his five games in charge.

11/4
Bolton Result & Both to Score

The Best Of The Rest

Wrexham v Rotherham – Wrexham to win

Wrexham continued their pursuit of automatic promotion to the Championship with a gritty 0-1 win at Huddersfield thanks to a 73rd minute Steven Fletcher winner. The 37-year-old was miles offside but was not bothered as he wheeled off to celebrate with his teammates. This result kept Wrexham third, just two points off Wycombe who occupy the final automatic promotion spot.

The Red Dragons have been relentless at home, picking up 40 points from 18 games 0 only runaway leaders Birmingham boast a better home record.

Rotherham were relegated from the Championship again last season, but the appointment of Steve Evans bred optimism in South Yorkshire. However, the Millers are lingering in 14th with nothing to play for.

Their away form has been the biggest stumbling block, taking just 14 points from 17 games. Away at a strong Wrexham side, the value lays with the hosts.

19/20
Wrexham Match Odds

Tranmere v Bromley – Under 2.5 goals

Tranmere are in a spot of bother in League Two. Rovers are 12 games without a win and have slipped down 22nd – a run of form that ultimately cost Nigel Adkins his job. Andy Crosby has drawn 1-1 in both his games in interim charge – two low-quality games. Tranmere have struggled in front of goal, with their 25 goals scored the fewest in the league.

Of their 18 games at Prenton Park, 14 have seen under 2.5 goals landing, which is the most in the league.

Bromley have taken to League Two like a duck to water after gaining promotion to the Football League for the first time in their history through the playoffs. Andy Woodman’s side are now just four points off the top seven after five wins from six, keeping a clean sheet in all of these.

The Ravens will fancy their chances of upsetting the apple cart but face a tough task. Their tight-knit defence and the goals of Michael Cheek will be key. Of their 35 league games, 22 have seen under 2.5 goals land, including their last six.

8/11
Under 2.5 Goals Over/Under 2.5 Goals

EFL Saturday Betting Tips

All games kick off at 3pm on Saturday

NAP
Burnley v Luton – Burnley to win and under 3.5 goals

Next Best
Birmingham v Lincoln – Birmingham to win and under 3.5 goals

Longshot
Burton v Bolton – Bolton to win and both teams to score, yes

Best of the rest
Wrexham v Rotherham – Wrexham to win
Tranmere v Bromley – Under 2.5 goals

  • And if you’re really keen, all five selections in this week’s column combine into a Paddy Power acca – where you’ll get your money back if one leg let’s you down – which pays at approximately 52/1. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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