Saturday sees one of the most interesting games in this FA Cup 5th Round with Manchester City hosting Plymouth Argyle. The Pilgrims are deep in a relegation battle but have been the giant killers of this year’s Cup, defeating Premier League teams Brentford and Liverpool to set up this 5th round match.
Football tipster Sam Farley has researched the markets what should be a rather one-sided affair and come up with three separate bets, a value pick, a longshot and a Bet Builder.
All four of Sam’s Bet Builder picks are covered by Paddy’s Super Sub offer, too, meaning that if a player is replaced, the pick carries over to his replacement.
Man City v Plymouth betting tips
The value bet – Plymouth +3
The fouls Bet Builder – Adam Randell, Maksym Talovierov, Tymoteusz Puchacz & Matthew Sorinola to commit 1+ fouls
The longshot – Nikola Katic to score anytime
The Value Bet – Plymouth +3
On the face of it, this is a game that should be easy for Man City to win. After all, they’re still the reigning Premier League champions, and despite this being their worst season under Pep Guardiola, they’re still fourth in the table and consistently strong at home, while Plymouth Argyle are stuck in the relegation zone and desperately fighting to survive.
However, a closer look at these teams shows a very different story. Argyle are in the predicament they’re in because of the decision to appoint Wayne Rooney.
Since Miron Muslic has come into the team, they’ve gradually improved, they’ve had a drastic change in style of play, and have upgraded hugely defensively. They may be fighting for survival but in the Championship form table they’re tenth over the past six games. This team are not as bad as their position in the table.
While being away is obviously a disadvantage for Argyle, we also need to consider their style of play. Towering centreback Nikola Katic already has 62 clearances in just five Championship games, that’s largely down to how Muslic sets up the team to defend.
They congest the middle of the park and force teams wide to put in crosses that their tall defence can gobble up, or try hopeful balls over the top that aren’t very efficient. It’s not pretty, but it’s effective, and it’s a style that should be able to slow City down, at least early in the game.
City have the quality and the coaching to be able to solve the puzzle against Argyle and win, but it’s not going to be a walkover, and the goals could come later in the game. If Guardiola is as arrogant as Arne Slot and selects a lot of kids with a weak bench, then it’s only going to further increase the chances of Argyle staying within touching distance.
The hosts should get the win and progress to the quarterfinals, but it’s going to be 90 minutes of tough-tackling, organised, back-to-the-wall stuff, and they could be frustrated for large periods.
The fouls Bet Builder – Adam Randell, Maksym Talovierov, Tymoteusz Puchacz & Matthew Sorinola to commit 1+ fouls each
Picking a Bet Builder for this game is tricky.
We don’t know who’ll line up for City thanks to Pep roulette, and Argyle also have question marks, thanks to an injury to Ryan Hardie, who scored the goal to defeat Liverpool, as well as a potential change to the third central defender that might see Victor Palsson benched and their right back from the weekend, Kornel Szucs move into the middle.
However, there are four players who are likely to start, that all look like very good value bets to commit a foul, so we’ve bundled them into a four-fold Bet Builder.
Firstly, Adam Randell, he’s the hometown hero for Argyle, a local lad who wears the armband and plays in the middle of the park. He averages 1.1 fouls per game in the Championship, but against a midfield with the quality of City, he’s going to need to be everywhere, including dropping back in to the help the defence.
There are three of the back five who are likely to give up a foul, they are Maksym Talovierov, Tymoteusz Puchacz and Matthew Sorinola.
Talovierov plays on the right side of the three centre-backs but often gets pulled out wide, where he relishes the chance to tackle. That’s all well and good in the Championship, but against top players and dribblers the likes of Jack Grealish and Jeremy Doku, it’s an issue that’ll see him give up a freekick.
Then there are the fullbacks, and while Puchacz has impressed since arriving from Bundesliga, he’ll struggle with the quality of the City team, meaning he could get isolated at left-back.
We have to mention fan favourite Matty Sorinola, too. He plays at 110% every game, which often leads to giving up fouls. Much like Talovierov he’ll have to deal with those players on City’s left flank who happen to be their best dribblers of a football.
- With these bets, a Bet Builder pays approximately 3/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
The longshot – Nikola Katic to score anytime
When you’re looking for a long shot, you really have to consider somebody in green, with City players incredibly short odds for nearly everything. That leads us to consider a potential Argyle goal and who would score it. Hardie is out injured, and the rest of the team’s forwards will struggle against City’s backline.
However, one area in which Argyle will have an advantage is in terms of height with Talovierov and Nikola Katic, both gigantic defenders, who consistently look threatening at set pieces.
Guardiola’s side have allowed just three set-piece goals, the fewest in the Premier League this season, but they aren’t infallible, and the height of the Ukrainian and Bosnian center-backs will be an issue for Guardiola’s team. Both Talovierov and Katic have already scored for Argyle despite playing just five games each, and they’re the dangermen here.
We’ll take Katic, the best of the two in the air, as the bet with 22/1 odds available on an anytime goal and a staggering 80/1 available if you back the former Rangers man to open the scoring.
Man City v Plymouth betting tips
The value bet – Plymouth +3
The fouls Bet Builder – Adam Randell, Maksym Talovierov, Tymoteusz Puchacz & Matthew Sorinola to commit 1+ fouls
The longshot – Nikola Katic to score anytime
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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