After some tasty wins from his NAP and longshot last week, Matthew O’Regan is back with his EFL column looking to unearth some more nuggets for this weekend’s action.
With a slightly reduced EFL slate owing to five Championship teams still in the FA Cup, he has provided us with four goalscorer picks and the usual NAP, Next Best and Longshot.
Goalscorer Best Bets
Crawley v Cambridge – Josh Stokes to score
Cheltenham v Grimsby – Justin Obikwu to score
Fleetwood v Notts County – Alassana Jatta to score
AFC Wimbledon v Bromley – Michael Cheek to Score
Best Bets
NAP: Walsall v Swindon – Both teams to score? Yes
Next Best: Burton v Mansfield – Burton draw no bet
Long Shot: Luton v Portsmouth – Portsmouth and Both teams to score? Yes
Goalscorer Best Bets
Crawley v Cambridge – Josh Stokes
The first goalscorer comes from League One and I am stoke(d) to tip it. Josh Stokes was first on my radar when he signed for Aldershot from AFC Sudbury and was constantly a juicy price to score. A move to Bristol City followed, before he was loaned to Cambridge.
The 20-year-old is a firm fan favourite and has scored five goals in 13 starts, including a brace in the 2-0 win against Stockport last time out. Stokes is averaging 0.35 goals per 90 from 2.54 shots and 1.13 shots on target.
Crawley sit 22nd, three points clear of basement boys Cambridge. The Red Devils have the joint-worst defensive record in the league and have kept just one clean sheet in their last 15 matches.
Cheered on by a 1,000+ away following, the visitors will fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet. If they do, the in-form Josh Stokes looks best-priced.
Cheltenham v Grimsby – Justin Obikwu to score
The second goalscorer bet comes from League Two and another loanee. Justin Obikwu is in his second spell at Grimsby after a brief loan spell last season.
The 21-year-old is enjoying a stellar campaign thus far, scoring seven goals in ten starts, including the last three games, averaging 0.85 goals per 90. Only Grimsby have conceded more goals than Cheltenham in the top 14 of the league, so the Mariners should have ample opportunity to get on the scoresheet.
Fleetwood v Notts County – Alassana Jatta to score
Alassana Jatta was signed last January as a future replacement for Macaulay Langstaff who departed for Millwall in the summer. The gangly Gambian scored five goals in six starts (10 appearances) last season and has continued this fine form into this campaign.
Jatta has 15 goals in 26 starts, averaging 0.59 goals per 90 – a tally that puts him joint second in the goalscoring charts, one goal off Mathew Stevens and Michael Cheek.
AFC Wimbledon v Bromley – Michael Cheek to score
Speaking of the devil, it would be rude not to have a cheeky bet on Michael Cheek. The Bromley talisman was a staple for goals in the National League and has translated that form into League Two.
93 goals across four seasons helped fire his side into promotion, and he has scored 16 goals thus far, averaging 0.54 goals per 90 minutes. The odds look far too high for such a prolific finisher, even with AFC Wimbledon’s mean defence.
Nap, Next Best and Longshot
NAPS and Next Bests are my bread and butter. For good measure, I have also thrown in a longshot.
NAP: Walsall v Swindon – Both teams to score? Yes
With so much automatic promotion, playoff and relegation drama to start the League Two season, Walsall looked to be coasting to the League Two title, but a recent blip has thrown a spanner in the works.
Since the nine-game league winning streak stretching from the third of December to the 18th of January, The Saddlers have won just twice in the next eight games, including throwing away a two-goal lead in added time at home to Cheltenham in midweek.
Matt Saddlers’ side boasted one of the best defensive records in the league, but their only clean sheet in their last 12 came against a feeble Morecambe side who had ten men for the majority of the second half.
After a 1-0 loss at Bradford in early December, Ian Holloway confronted angry Swindon fans in the away end, annoyed with yet another defeat as they looked to be sleep walking towards relegation.
Two losses in the next thirteen followed, with the eccentric Holloway getting a tune out of a stuttering side. The Robins have scored in ten of these games and will fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet against a struggling Walsall defence.
Walsall have seen BTTS in 12/17 home games (the most in the league), while Swindon have seen it in 12/17 away games, too (the most in the league).
Next Best: Burton v Mansfield – Burton draw no bet
A summer that saw huge upheaval and a shift in recruitment policy meant that Burton struggled in the early stages and were battling relegation.
However, the appointment of the experienced Gary Bowyer has steered them in the right direction. The Brewers are now two points off safety after just one defeat in their last nine.
Mansfield started their first season back in League One very strongly but are now anxiously checking their shoulders. The Stags have lost eight of their last nine games as they continue to slide down the table.
With the ‘draw no bet’ market providing a refund if the match ends in a draw, it looks a nice way to back an in-form Burton against an out-of-sorts Mansfield.
Long Shot: Luton v Portsmouth – Portsmouth and Both teams to score? Yes
Three wins on the bounce has seen Portsmouth storm nine points clear of safety, knowing a win away at basement boys Luton will give them even more breathing room.
John Mousinho’s side have scored the second most goals in the bottom half, scoring in their last four games. ‘Both Teams To Score’ has landed in 10/17 away games for Pompey.
Luton have struggled after relegation from the Premier League and are on the brink of back-to-back relegations. Rob Edwards was dismissed as manager and replaced by Matt Bloomfield.
The 41-year-old has failed to win any of his eight games in charge and pressure is beginning to build on him. The Hatters are five points from safety and need wins fast, so expect a front-foot performance from the off – something that will suit the away side looking to counterattack.
BTTS has landed in 10/17 games at Kenilworth Road.
Saturday’s EFL Betting Tips
Goalscorer Best Bets
Crawley v Cambridge – Josh Stokes to score
Cheltenham v Grimsby – Justin Obikwu to score
Fleetwood v Notts County – Alassana Jatta to score
AFC Wimbledon v Bromley – Michael Cheek to Score
Best Bets
NAP: Walsall v Swindon – Both teams to score? Yes
Next Best: Burton v Mansfield – Burton draw no bet
Long Shot: Luton v Portsmouth – Portsmouth and Both teams to score? Yes
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