The end of February signals the end of the horrible winter months and also the beginning of the final stretch of the football season.
Titles, relegations and continental competition qualification will be won and lost in the next few weeks.
Our tipster Oli Nixon is off on another European tour for Saturday’s best bets, taking in the Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A.
We’ve got singles, a fouls multiplier and a dishy double in the Inter game to ponder so let’s get into it.
Euro footy best bets
5.30pm: Borussia Dortmund v Union Berlin – Dortmund (-1)
5.30pm: Valencia v Atletico Madrid – Luis Rioja to be fouled once and then twice
7.45pm: Inter Milan v Genoa – Denzel Dumfries to have 2+ shots, Genoa goalkeeper to make 3+ saves
5.30pm: Dortmund v Union Berlin – Dortmund (-1)
TV: Sky Sports Football
We start in Germany where Dortmund are enduring a terrible season, currently sat in the bottom half of the Bundesliga. Despite this poor form, they still have the 5th best home record in the division and entertain a Union Berlin side who have taken just 8 points from 11 games on the road.
Dortmund last tasted domestic victory on home soil back in November and so are well overdue a win. They’ll be pleased to see Union Berlin on the fixture list next though as they’ve won the last 4 head-to-heads in a row at home, covering the -1 handicap in 4 of those.
Union’s victory at Hoffenheim in their last game on their travels snapped a streak of 7 losses in a row away from home, during which they were beaten by more than 1 goal in 5 of those. When they do lose away, they’re being hammered and they look the perfect opponent for Dortmund to regain some confidence against.
5.30pm: Valencia v Atletico – Rioja fouled once & twice
TV: Premier Sports 1 and LALIGATV
Valencia host Atletico Madrid in the evening desperate for points in their battle for survival whilst their visitors sit one point off the summit. With so much on the line for both sides, the foul markets feel a good place to land.
Luis Rioja has drawn 1.21 fouls per 90 this season and in his last 5 home games has been fouled 8 times, including once in every game. He was fouled twice in the reverse fixture and the same again would do nicely.
Rioja has been played at right back and right wing in his last 2 games and if on that side again in this one he’ll be opposing Javi Galan and Samuel Lino who make 2.76 fouls per 90 between them and so he’ll have plenty of opportunities to go down.
7.45pm: Inter v Genoa – Dumfries 2+ shots & Genoa GK 3+ saves
TV: TNT Sports 1 and OneFootball
Having lost at Juventus last weekend, Inter missed out on the opportunity to capitalise on title rivals Napoli dropping points for a third consecutive game. However, a home tie against Genoa represents a good opportunity to go back to the top of Serie A, putting pressure on Napoli’s trip to Como on Sunday.
Denzel Dumfries has been enjoying life at wing back this season, the Dutchman providing 6 goals from an average of 1.77 shots per 90. At home, this average jumps to 1.83 where he’s had 2 or more shots in 4 of his last 6 starts.
Genoa will come under plenty of pressure as away goalkeepers at the San Siro are making 4 saves per game and Nicola Leali has made at least 3 saves in each of his last 6 games on the road. This part of the bet has also landed in each of the last 6 meetings between these sides including in the reverse where Pierluigi Gollini was forced into 5 saves.
Saturday’s football betting tips
5.30pm: Borussia Dortmund v Union Berlin – Dortmund (-1)
5.30pm: Valencia v Atletico Madrid – Luis Rioja to be fouled once and twice
7.45pm: Inter Milan v Genoa – Denzel Dumfries to have 2+ shots, Genoa goalkeeper to make 3+ saves
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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