Our resident EFL tipster Matthew O’Regan is here with his new-look column, with underdog and goalscorer bets, as well as his NAP, next best and longshot pick for Saturday’s 3pm games across the leagues.
Underdog Treble
Blackburn v Plymouth – Plymouth to win
Shrewsbury v Bolton – Shrewsbury to win
Walsall v Chesterfield – Chesterfield to win
- Plymouth, Shrewsbury & Chesterfield all to win adds up to 81/1 CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Goal scorer selections
Millwall v West Brom – Adam Armstrong To Score
Birmingham v Charlton – Jay Stansfield To Score
Bristol Rovers v Burton – Rumarn Burrell To Score
Crawley v Wycombe – Richard Kone To Score
- Saturday’s goal-scorer acca adds up to 70/1 CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Best Bets
NAP: Blackpool v Mansfield – Blackpool Win
Next Best: Carlisle v Colchester – Colchester Win
Long Shot: Crawley v Wycombe – Wycombe Win and BTTS
Underdog acca
Everybody loves backing an underdog. What’s better than a Saturday afternoon sweat watching the team you backed at 4/1 cling on for over an hour? With that in mind, I have identified a big price from each division. The +1 handicap treble pays a cool 6/1, but those ambitious enough can take the win treble at 81/1?
Blackburn v Plymouth – Plymouth to win
Plymouth looked destined for the drop when Wayne Rooney was dismissed on New Year’s Eve. The Pilgrims were rooted to the foot of the table and the Home Park faithful had begun to get toxic. Step forward Miron Muslic. The bearded genius has transformed Argyle, lifting them off the bottom of the table for the first time in 54 days.
The win over the Premier League leaders were sandwiched in between impressive home wins against West Brom (2-1) and Millwall (5-1) while a 2-2 draw at Sunderland kick-started this four-game unbeaten run. Muslic’s first task will be to improve their away form, with Argyle picking up just four points on their travels. However, he will see an away game against an out-of-sorts Blackburn as the ideal opportunity.
Despite being in the playoff positions, John Eustace swapped Blackburn for relegation-threatened Derby County – a sign that all is not well behind the scenes at Ewood Park. Rovers responded with a fantastic 0-2 win at The Hawthorns against West Brom. While the players showed tremendous spirit and endeavour to get the victory over a strong West Brom side, it was a low quality, low-margin game (0.56 – 0.70 xG). Plymouth will set up to frustrate Rovers and may find joy again from set pieces.
Shrewsbury v Bolton – Shrewsbury to win
Another team that looked dead and buried until a change of manager is Shrewsbury. The Shrews were in dire straits in League One under Paul Hurst, so the Salop hierarchy turned to Gareth Ainsworth to breathe some life into the club. Under his tenure, Shrewsbury have already beaten promotion favourites Birmingham and Wrexham at home, with the 51-year-old excelling as an underdog.
A new-look Bolton is perhaps the perfect opponent for Ainsworth’s low-block football. Steven Schumacher emerged victorious in his first game in charge against Crawley, despite being 3-1 down in the 67th minute. Under Evatt, the Trotters were possession heavy – something Schumacher will look to continue.
Bolton have struggled away at teams who like to surrender possession, losing 2-1 at Mansfield (67% possession), drawing the reverse fixture 2-2 (72% possession) and drawing at Cambridge (71% possession). Ainsworth will pack the defence and make his side hard to beat and this may see Salop reap the rewards in their climb up the table.
Walsall v Chesterfield – Chesterfield to win
Walsall looked to be storming to the League Two title after a ferocious start, spearheaded by loan star Nathan Lowe. However, the talented teen has been recalled by parent club Stoke and the Saddlers are feeling the effects, picking up just two points from their last five, scoring four goals in the process. While Matt Saddler’s side still have an eight-point gap on the chasing pack, they are bound to be feeling the pressure and will dread the visit of 10th place Chesterfield who are fresh off a 5-2 win over high-flying Doncaster.
Paul Cook’s side stormed to the National League title last year and were priced as favourites to win League Two this season. While the Spireites won’t win the league, they are finely poised to make a late playoff dash, sat six points off seventh placed Salford with a game in hand.
Chesterfield, particularly away from home, are very inconsistent and unpredictable but boast a potent attack – only Saturday’s hosts have scored more than their 48. In what could be a chaotic, high-scoring game, Chesterfield will fancy their chances of upsetting the apple cart yet again.
- Plymouth, Shrewsbury & Chesterfield all to win adds up to 81/1 CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
- Plymouth, Shrewsbury & Chesterfield + 1 handicap treble adds up to 6/1 CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Saturday’s Goal scorer Bets
Backing goalscorers can often yield big profit, with a lot of value to be scoped out. I have four selections that look value as singles, but can also be combined for a 69/1 acca
Millwall v West Brom – Adam Armstrong To Score
Adam Armstrong is a player that perhaps falls into the Chris Jerome/Dwight Gayle category of ‘too good for the Championship but not good enough for the Premier League.’
The 28-year-old scored 28 league goals for Blackburn in the 2020/2021 season, securing a move to the Premier League where he scored just four league goals in two years for Southampton. When the Saints won promotion back to the top division, Armstrong was pivotal, notching 24 goals before scoring just twice in half a season on their return. He has since been loaned out to West Brom with hopes of firing The Baggies back to the Premier League for the first time since 2021.
He was lively on his debut against Sheffield Wednesday, registering six shots and scoring the opener after 74 minutes, before having a legitimate goal ruled out in the shock defeat to Blackburn. His last season in the Championship saw him average 0.50 goals per 90, so Armstrong looks a huge price to bag on Saturday.
Birmingham v Charlton – Jay Stansfield To Score
Much was made of Birmingham’s £15m signing of Jay Stansfield. The 22-year-old scored 12 goals in 43 games in a loan spell as the Blues were relegated, scooping up the player of the season award. This prompted new boss Chris Davies to splash out a League One record transfer fee for the 22-year-old.
Stansfield is repaying the faith shown in him, with 15 goals in 20 starts putting him second in the golden boot reckoning. Stansfield is averaging 0.79 goals per 90 from 0.75 xG, scoring three goals in his last two league games.
Bristol Rovers v Burton – Rumarn Burrell To Score
Burton are undergoing a mini revival under the steady guidance of Gary Bowyer. The Brewers are now unbeaten in six games, scoring 11 goals in this time – more than a third of their total for the season. The key to this is the strike partnership of Ruarn Burrell and Jon Dadi Bödvarrson.
Burrell was signed after scoring 21 goals in 34 games for Cove Rangers in Scottish League One. The 24-year-old struggled to hit the ground running in League One but is now in a rich vein of form, scoring six in his last eight.
Crawley v Wycombe- Richard Kone To Score
Leading the League One goalscoring chart is Richard Kone – a player that has hit the headlines for his inspiring story. Playing for Essex Senior League side Athletic Newham, Kone caught the attention of Wycombe who decided to take a punt on the non-league sensation. It could prove to be the best business the Chairboys have ever done, even rejecting a £7m offer from Luton in January.
Kone has missed the last couple of games but scored a brace last time out against Barnsley to take his tally to 16. With 0.80 goals per 90, the Ivorian will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing a Crawley defence that has conceded 53 this season.
- Saturday’s goal-scorer acca adds up to 70/1 CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Nap, Next Best and Longshot
While underdogs and goal scorers are fun bets to place on the weekend, NAPS and Next Bests are the bread and butter. For good measure, I have thrown in a longshot, too.
NAP: Blackpool v Mansfield – Blackpool Win
Blackpool are the draw kings of League One, drawing 13 of their 30 games, including their last three and seven of the last ten. The Tangerines have not lost since Wrexham on Boxing Day, but Steve Bruce will be desperate to convert some of these ties into wins. A home match against Mansfield will be seen as the perfect opportunity.
The Stags’ promotion went under the radar last year with Wrexham taking all the plaudits for their second successive promotion. Nigel Clough’s side started the season strongly, which has given them a safety cushion after a horrific run of form. Mansfield are still ten points clear of safety, but fans will be nervously checking their shoulders after seven straight losses in all competitions.
While defeats against Wigan and Wycombe are to be expected, Clough will be ruing away losses to Cambridge (24th) and Shrewsbury (21st), as well as home losses to Crawley (22nd) and Northampton 17th). Mansfield are in a rut and will be dreading the trip to Bloomfield Road.
Next Best: Carlisle v Colchester – Colchester Win
Many people fancied Carlisle to bounce straight back up after relegation from League One, but things are yet to materialise for the Cumbrians this season. After Paul Simpson was dismissed early on, the bewildering decision to hire Mike Williamson was made, despite his troubles at MK Dons.
His tenure was unsuccessful, so wily campaigner Mark Hughes was appointed the club’s third manager of the season. The 61-year-old started with defeats at Grimsby and Newport, meaning Carlisle have lost four on the bounce and sit six points adrift at the bottom of the table.
Making the treacherous trek to Brunton Park on Saturday are a Colchester side five games unbeaten. Managed by the charismatic brotherly duo of the Cowley brothers, the U’s look an outside shout to qualify for the playoffs, sat just eight points off with a game in hand. As expected, Colchester are defensively resolute with sprinklings of goal-threat, mainly from Lyle Taylor and Jack Payne.
Long Shot: Crawley v Wycombe – Wycombe Win & BTTS
Wycombe have been the surprise package of League One so far and currently take the crown of ‘best of the rest’, sitting four points clear of Wrexham. Despite the departure of Matt Bloomfield to Luton, The Chairboys have been resilient and continue their charge to the Championship.
The Buckinghamshire-based side boast the best away record in the league, taking 31 points from 15, scoring 35 and conceding 20 in the process. BTTS has landed in a league high 12/15 away games.
Crawley bounced back from a 4-3 collapse at Bolton to beat in-form Stevenage 3-1 at the Broadfield Stadium. The Red Devils are now just three points from safety and will be aiming to make their home a fortress now after taking just their 15th point on Tuesday. While just over half (7/13) home games have seen BTTS, Crawley should play on the front foot against Wycombe, leading to a high-scoring game that the visitors should win.
Saturday’s EFL Betting Tips
Underdog Treble
Blackburn v Plymouth – Plymouth to win
Shrewsbury v Bolton – Shrewsbury to win
Walsall v Chesterfield – Chesterfield to win
- Plymouth, Shrewsbury & Chesterfield all to win adds up to 81/1 CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Goal scorer selections
Millwall v West Brom – Adam Armstrong To Score
Birmingham v Charlton – Jay Stansfield To Score
Bristol Rovers v Burton – Rumarn Burrell To Score
Crawley v Wycombe- Richard Kone To Score
- Saturday’s goal-scorer acca adds up to 70/1 CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Best Bets
NAP: Blackpool v Mansfield – Blackpool Win
Next Best: Carlisle v Colchester – Colchester Win
Long Shot: Crawley v Wycombe – Wycombe Win and BTTS
- All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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