In the new Champions League format’s first knockout round, the sides that failed to make the top eight but weren’t bad enough to finish in the bottom twelve fight for the right to progress to the last 16.
It is anyone’s guess why we needed so many matches to eliminate just 12 sides (clue: it involves money), but it has created some decent jeopardy for some of the big boys.
These circumstances have created unique betting opportunities, and Oli Nixon has picked out some of the best on Wednesday night.
Paddy’s Super Sub offer also covers all player picks, so if a player is replaced, the pick will carry over to his substitute.
Champions League betting tips
Club Brugge v Atalanta – Berat Djimsiti to commit 2+ fouls, Berat Djimsiti to be carded
Celtic v Bayern Munich – Alistair Johnston to be fouled 2+ times
Feyenoord v AC Milan – 2+ cards each team, 3+ cards each team
Monaco v Benfica – Nicolas Otamendi and Breel Embolo to commit 1+ fouls each and be fouled 1+ time each, Nicolas Otamendi and Breel Embolo to commit 2+ fouls each and be fouled 2+ times each, Nicolas Otamendi and Breel Embolo both to be carded
Club Brugge v Atalanta – Berat Djimsiti to commit 2+ fouls, Berat Djimsiti to be carded
Two sides who finished at opposite ends of the table will meet in Belgium, desperate to reach the last 16 for just the second time in the last four seasons.
Brugge will be pinning their hopes on their talisman Christos Tzolis, the tricky Greek winger who has been fouled 1.87 times per 90 in the competition this season.
His direct opponent will likely be wing-back Davide Zappacosta, whose attacking instincts could often expose left-sided centre-back Berat Djimsiti. The Albanian has committed 0.88 fouls per 90 in the Champions League.
However, his two fouls against Stuttgart and Shakhtar, where he faced similarly tricky opposition, suggest his prices for both two fouls and a card hold value. He’s been booked six times this season and could be again against Tzolis.
Celtic v Bayern Munich – Alistair Johnston to be fouled 2+ times
Celtic’s best showing in Europe for some time will likely end in early elimination again, thanks to a tough draw against Bayern Munich. Their best hope is that their infamous atmosphere can act as a 12th man in this first leg, but that may still not be enough.
Fullback Alistair Johnston is having a stellar season and has drawn plenty of opposition attention. He’s been fouled 2.19 times per 90 in Europe this season, including being felled five times in Dortmund, three times against Young Boys and twice versus Atalanta.
Johnston will be up against Kingsley Coman, who has committed 2.82 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this season, so it looks like an excellent match-up for Johnston to be fouled twice once again at a lovely price.
Feyenoord v AC Milan – 2+ cards each team, 3+ cards each team
Feyenoord’s hosting of AC Milan has all the makings of a foul-laden contest full of cards. Feyenoord matches in the competition have averaged 3.88 cards, with only their game with Girona seeing 2+ cards for each team; however, for AC Milan, that average is 5.51, with 2+ for each team landing in all eight ties.
We also have a referee in Jose Maria Sanchez, who has dished out 107 yellows and three red cards in just 20 games in charge this season. That’s an average of over five cards per game, and in the Champions League, he’s officiated five matches in which there have been 23 yellow and two red cards.
2+ cards for each team has landed in four of those Champions League fixtures and 3+ in three, so he has plenty of previous. One of those matches involved AC Milan, and Sanchez gave out three yellows to each side and a red to Slovan Bratislava, so hopefully, he’s in a similar mood for this big game.
Monaco v Benfica – Nicolas Otamendi and Breel Embolo to commit 1+ fouls each and be fouled 1+ time each, Nicolas Otamendi and Breel Embolo to commit 2+ fouls each and be fouled 2+ times each, Nicolas Otamendi and Breel Embolo both to be carded
Champions League ties are made for big match-ups and the contest between Nicolas Otamendi and Breel Embolo looks like one of the biggest of this gameweek. Otamendi is best described as combative, the Argentinian committing 1.12 fouls per game in Europe and drawing 0.62 fouls by the same metric.
He will be well up for the physical tussle with Embolo, who himself is a foul magnet. The big striker has been fouled 2.57 per 90 and committed 2.27. His game is all about roughing up the centre-halves, and Otamendi will likely be tasked with keeping him in check, leading to the two having plenty of chances to foul each other.
The stumbling block in backing the foul combinations is that, often, with this sort of clash, an off-the-ball altercation can result in both players being booked. Since neither player is a stranger to the referee’s notebook, it’s worth backing them both to be carded, just in case.
Wednesday’s Champions League tips
Club Brugge v Atalanta – Berat Djimsiti to commit 2+ fouls, Berat Djimsiti to be carded
Celtic v Bayern Munich – Alistair Johnston to be fouled 2+ times
Feyenoord v AC Milan – 2+ cards each team, 3+ cards each team
Monaco v Benfica – Nicolas Otamendi and Breel Embolo to commit 1+ fouls each and be fouled 1+ time each, Nicolas Otamendi and Breel Embolo to commit 2+ fouls each and be fouled 2+ times each, Nicolas Otamendi and Breel Embolo both to be carded
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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