Sandwiched between the end of another tedious January transfer window and the next round of the Champions League, one of the last remaining traditions in English football takes centre stage this weekend with the FA Cup fourth-round ties.
With so much going on at this stage of the season, this set of fixtures creates interesting circumstances that can allow some unique betting opportunities in Sunday’s ties.
Two of Oli Nixon’s player picks are also covered by Paddy’s Super Sub offer, meaning if a player is replaced, the pick carries over to his substitute.
Sunday’s Best Bets
12:30pm Blackburn v Wolves – Blackburn draw no bet, Blackburn to win
3pm Plymouth Argyle v Liverpool – Liverpool to score 3+ goals
5:35pm Aston Villa v Tottenham – Kevin Danso to commit 2+ fouls, Marcus Rashford to score
Blackburn v Wolves – Blackburn draw no bet, Blackburn win
TV: TV: BBC Red Button, BBC iPlayer and BBC Sport Website
Premier League sides who are embroiled in a battle for survival understandably don’t tend to prioritise this competition. At this stage last season, Everton and Leeds both failed to win, Sheffield United conceded five goals in defeat and Burnley were already out.
This season, the bottom five sides in the Premier League all remain in the competition, having faced lower league sides in round three, but with less than half the season to go to save their skin, we can expect them to focus on league fixtures.
A team who undoubtedly fit into this bracket are Wolves, who, despite improving under Vitor Pereira, are only two points clear of the drop zone. Wolves lost to Championship opposition last season, and with eyes on a trip to Anfield next weekend, they can be forgiven for taking their eye off the ball against Blackburn.
Therefore, Rovers are a generous price in the draw no bet market. Wolves have just nine points from 12 games on the road this season and face a Blackburn team with the fifth-best home record in the Championship.
John Eustace’s men have a playoff push of their own to worry about but will be more inclined to try and keep the momentum of winning games going than Wolves and so are a great price to avoid defeat as they have done in 11 of their 17 games at Ewood Park this season. They might even be worth a go at the outright price to win.
3pm Plymouth v Liverpool – Liverpool to score 3+
TV: ITV1, STV, ITVX and STV Player
With the EFL Cup, European competition and domestic league fixtures coming thick and fast, Premier League teams often need to rotate squads and the disjointed line-ups we’re likely to see tend to lead to plenty of goals.
At this stage last season, scorelines included Liverpool 5-2 Norwich, Newport 2-4 Man Utd, Sheffield United 2-5 Brighton and Bournemouth 5-0 Swansea. Given this, it’s worth betting on goals in Plymouth v Liverpool, most notably for the away side and backing Liverpool to score Over 3.5 goals.
Arne Slot’s men have quite the fixture congestion going on, as this will be the second of four matches in just 10 days. However, their demolition of Norwich in this round last season emphasises their quality. They also beat Accrington 4-0 in round three to land this bet.
They’ve already scored seven more goals than any other Premier League side and have netted four or more on five occasions this season. Their opponents, Plymouth, have conceded eight more goals than any other side in the entire EFL and are a good side to take on for this bet.
Despite being improved under new boss Miron Muslic, they still got spanked 5-0 by Burnley at home in January and with them currently rooted to the bottom of the Championship, they have bigger fish to fry than the FA Cup.
They’ve conceded four or more in six matches this season, all against much weaker opposition than the runaway Premier League leaders.
5:35pm Villa v Spurs – Danso to commit 2+ fouls, Rashford to score
TV: BBC One, BBC iPlayer and BBC Sport Website
The final area of note is that, for many sides, this is their first game since transfer deadline day, so it is an opportunity for those last-minute panic buys to show that they were worth the investment.
Tottenham and Aston Villa were two of the busier sides in a relatively quiet window. Both strengthened at the eleventh hour, and their clash on Sunday evening will potentially allow both sides to introduce their new players to the fans.
Spurs may well hand starts to Mathys Tel and Kevin Danso as their patched-up squad desperately needs rest.
If so, Danso’s foul record in Ligue 1 of 2.25 per 90 and his match-up against Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins, who draw plenty of infringements, make him worth a bet in the foul markets.
However, the player most likely to make an instant impact looks like Marcus Rashford, who wants to press the reset button away from Old Trafford.
The troubled winger may go straight into the side with Watkins, Jacob Ramsey, and Rogers, who need rest for the Champions League knockout games.
If he plays, his career record of six goals against Tottenham suggests he’s worth backing in the anytime, first goalscorer, and multi-scorer markets, especially as this Spurs side will likely have a makeshift defence again.
Sunday’s FA Cup Best Bets
12:30pm Blackburn v Wolves – Blackburn draw no bet, Blackburn to win
3pm Plymouth v Liverpool – Liverpool to score 3+ goals
5:35pm Aston Villa v Tottenham – Kevin Danso to commit 2+ fouls, Marcus Rashford to score
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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