It’s go hard or go home time in the Champions League on Wednesday night as everyone battles it out to see if they’re finishing in the top eight, heading for a playoff, or missing out on the knockouts altogether.
This Aston Villa v Celtic clash could decide if either are progressing to the last 16 or if both are set for a last 32 showdown. Technically both can make it into the top eight but it’s a mighty-congested bunch from 8th downwards with just three points between Bayer Leverkusen and Stuttgart in 24th.
One man who’s forgone the permutations is Twitter’s top tipster Andy Robson and he’s dialed in on this battle of Britain up at Villa Park. So, Andy, what’s happening in this midweek match up?
Aston Villa v Celtic tips
Morgan Rogers to have 2+ shots
Callum McGregor to commit 1+ fouls
Ollie Watkins to commit 1+ fouls
Youri Tielemans to be fouled 1+ times
Celtic Goalkeeper to make 3+ saves
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WHEN: Wednesday January 29th, 8pm
WHERE: Villa Park, Birmingham
TV: TNT Sports 1 and TNT Sports Ultimate
Morgan Rogers to have 2+ shots
Morgan Rogers has had 14 shots across his 7 Champions League appearances this season (2.10 per 90). The forward is yet to find the back of the net in the competition but will be eager to break the duck against a Celtic side that has conceded 7 of their 10 goals in the Champions League on the road.
Rogers is also averaging 1.78 shots per 90 across his 22 Premier League appearances this campaign, a total just short of the line required here but Unai Emery’s side are averaging 12.7 shots per game across their 7 games in the competition and face up against a side that is conceding 12.3 shots per game in Europe’s elite competition so there should be opportunities for Rogers to match his Champions League average here.
Rogers had 2 shots in Aston Villa’s 1-0 defeat to Monaco in their most recent Champions League outing, Aston Villa should control the game and could eventually be motivated by urgency if the game is tight going into the latter periods with both of these sides still in contention for automatic progression to the knockout stages.
Callum McGregor to commit 1+ fouls
Callum McGregor has committed 6 fouls across his 7 Champions League appearances so far this season (0.86 per 90). This average is a notable increase on his domestic average (0.40 per 90) suggesting that the holding midfielder is having to get through more defensive work in the Champions League which goes hand in hand with the increase in quality and intensity of the competition compared to the Scottish Premiership.
It’s also worth noting that Aston Villa have been drawing a lot of fouls from their opponents in the Champions League this season, Unai Emery’s side have drawn at least 9 fouls in each of their 7 games in the competition this season with this number rising to 11 in 6 of these encounters. The Villa midfield is a hotspot for winning these fouls which should produce at least 1 foul from McGregor at the heart of Celtic’s midfield.
McGregor will be directly up against Morgan Rogers who is averaging 1.05 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League this season. Rogers should cause McGregor plenty of problems with his strong ball-carrying ability through central areas. Rogers is also averaging 1.49 fouls won per 90 across his 22 Premier League appearances this season.
Ollie Watkins to commit 1+ fouls
Watkins has committed 7 fouls across his 7 appearances in the Champions League this season (1.41 per 90). The Villa forward is constantly on the move and often involved in battles with the opposition centre back as further highlighted by his solid fouls won average in the competition this season (1.41 per 90).
Watkins does a lot of his best work running in behind the opposition defensive line, it’s unlikely that Celtic will be bold in the early stages of this game with so much on the line. This should result in a deeper defensive line with little room for Watkins to get in behind, this usually results in Villa firing long balls up to Watkins which he finds difficult to contest up against two physical centre halves, a situation which informs his fouls committed average in the Champions League and also the Premier League (1.23 fouls committed per 90).
Watkins will be up against Auston Trusty and Cameron Carter-Vickers who have won 6 fouls between them in the Champions League this campaign. Trusty will be the one to watch out of this pairing, the 26-year-old has won 5 of these fouls and is likely the centre-back that will engage in the majority of duels with Watkins. Watkins committed 1 foul in Aston Villa’s 1-0 loss to Monaco last time out.
Youri Tielemans to be fouled 1+ times
Tielemans has won 12 fouls across his 7 Champions League appearances this season (1.78 per 90). The central midfielder also boasts a strong fouls-won record in the Premier League this campaign (1.75 fouls won per 90) and should be hauled down at least once against a Celtic side that will be without the ball for the majority of the game.
This game has the potential to become very scrappy, especially in the early stages with automatic qualification still a possibility for both sides. Aston Villa have drawn at least 9 fouls from the opposition in each of their 7 games in the Champions League games this season, this number rises to 11 fouls won in 6 of these games. Tielemans’ ability to shield the ball and operate in tight areas informs his positive fouls won record in the Champions League this season.
He’ll be up against Reo Hatate and Arne Engels who are averaging 1.99 fouls committed per 90 in the Champions League between them this season. Expect Tielemans to be dragged down at least once in this clash with Unai Emery’s side consistently drawing fouls from the opposition and Tielemans being one of the standouts in this area.
Celtic Goalkeeper to make 3+ saves
Kasper Schmeichel has been busy in the Celtic net in the Champions League this campaign, the 38-year-old has been forced into making 24 saves across the 7 games (3.43 per 90).
Aston Villa have forced 5+ saves in each of their last 2 games in the competition against Monaco and RB Leipzig, Unai Emery’s side are averaging 4.6 shots on target per game in the Champions League this season but we can expect that to rise against a Celtic side who have conceded high shot on target numbers against Atalanta (6) and Dortmund (11), both in away fixtures.
Aston Villa should be able to carve out a few opportunities for their attackers to test Kasper Schmeichel here, Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers offer a central threat for Villa that is supported by Jhon Duran who can come off the bench to impact the game late on as he has done on a few occasions already this season.
Aston Villa v Celtic tips
Morgan Rogers to have 2+ shots
Callum McGregor to commit 1+ fouls
Ollie Watkins to commit 1+ fouls
Youri Tielemans to be fouled 1+ times
Celtic Goalkeeper to make 3+ saves
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 9/2 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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