This is no ordinary Monday Night Football, this is Lancashire v Yorkshire Championship Monday Night Football. Buckle up because this Burnley v Leeds clash could get rather tasty.
These two are going well in the second tier with Leeds top heading into the weekend and the Clarets in third, three points behind their visitors here. It’s all up for grabs and our tipster James O’Rourke is on hand to guide us through this game.
Burnley v Leeds tips
Under 1.5 Goals
Half-time: Draw
Bashir Humphreys To Commit 1+ Fouls
Joël Piroe To Commit 1+ Fouls
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WHEN: Monday 27th of January, 8pm
WHERE: Turf Moor, Burnley
TV: Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Football
UNDER 1.5 GOALS
Although there is certainly enough attacking quality in both teams for this game to take off, the reality is that both respective defensive units are incredibly tough to break down. That is especially the case for a Burnley team that has conceded a mere nine league goals all season, which is quite incredible given we are nearly in February.
The presence of The Clarets in any game decreases the prospect of goals, based on the facts. After all, Burnley’s Championship encounters have only averaged 1.61 goals. This, unsurprisingly, is the fewest of any side in the division.
Leeds are also a well-organised outfit out of possession. Only Burnley and Sheffield United have conceded fewer goals than Daniel Farke’s team. Furthermore, they’ve enjoyed a 57.14% success rate in league action in regards to keeping clean sheets.
Only one other team in the league has managed more shutouts, this is, you guessed it… Burnley. The big edge they have against the opposition is scoring goals, 17 more to be precise. However, Scott Parker’s team were 5-0 up at half-time in their most recent encounter!
Plenty of respect will be on show. Something of a tactical battle is anticipated to play out. A draw wouldn’t be the end of the world for either Burnley or Leeds. Versus top-ten opposition, Burnley have seen eight of those 13 encounters contain no more than one goal. Leeds are winless away to any top-ten club, albeit only from four games, yet three of those also featured one goal or less.
HALF-TIME DRAW
The first goal, should one arrive, will be huge in a match like this. There has been a strong build-up to this contest that both sets of managers, players or fans simply won’t have been able to ignore. That in turn means a degree of nerves are likely to be present on the pitch, which would be understandable. Therefore, there is every chance this already anticipated tactical affair may end up being a slow-burner in relation to significant chances on either goal.
It may be surprising to know that Burnley are quite frequent in the number of their league battles which have been level after 45 minutes. They are ranked joint-second in the Championship for number of their games being draws at half-time. Only Stoke have achieved more. It has been known for them to have issues breaking down stubborn opponents, and although Leeds won’t come looking to ‘park the bus, there’s no denying how strong they are defensively.
Something else which will be a bit of a shock to read is that Leeds’ first-half away record is one of the worst in the league. On that basis, they’d only be in 15th place. Farke’s men have failed to be ahead 76.92% of the time on the road. Again, the importance of the first goal is key, and with Leeds’ record against the currently higher-ranked clubs in the Championship not great, they’d take a draw at the break.
BASHIR HUMPHREYS TO COMMIT 1+ FOULS
After being rested to the bench for the midweek trip to Plymouth, Bashir Humphreys is expected to be recalled into the left back role. Knowing how strong Leeds are in the wide areas, recalling a more defensively sound full back, ahead of the more adventurous Lucas Pires, would be a wise move by Scott Parker.
However, even the best of one-v-one defenders at this level are bound to have issues coming up against the likes of Daniel James or Manor Solomon, or even possibly incoming subs such as Wilfried Gnonto or Largie Ramazani. Humphreys would have to be on the top of his game for the complete 90 minutes, and there are bound to be times he slips up.
The on-loan Chelsea man certainly is not amongst the highest for number of fouls over the season in the Burnley squad, but of late he has started to increase the offenses he has made. Over the season, he has chipped in but he has been guilty of making a foul in the last two games in which he has started.
These came in games against Sunderland and Blackburn, both who entered the weekend inside the top-six. Also, he has only made two or more fouls in one clash this season, which came when Burnley won 1-0 away at Leeds last September.
JOËL PIROE TO COMMIT 1+ FOULS
Being the away side, there will be a good deal of occasions when Leeds will have to sit back and come under pressure. They will arise following a variety of situations, such as losing possession high up the pitch. Joël Piroe is backed to lead the line for Leeds on Monday evening, and he is one not afraid to put himself about on the pitch. Recent statistics have proved this.
The ex-Swansea forward has developed something of a hot streak of late regards to attracting the attention of the referee. In each of his last four games for The Whites, the 25-year-old has committed one foul per game. So much so, in the midweek home victory against Norwich, Piroe collected his first yellow card of the season.
With this likely to be a very tight encounter, Piroe will have a tough job on his hands trying to hold up the ball, particularly against a super strong defensive opponent. It could be either that he just loses his cool for a brief moment, or is happy to commit a tactical foul to deny Burnley breaking forward.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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