The FA Cup 3rd round kicks off this weekend, and we’ve got Aston Villa taking on West Ham in the televised game on Friday night.
Unai Emery’s Villa have now gone seven games without a loss at Villa Park in all competitions, while West Ham have been on the wrong end of two thrashings from Liverpool and Man City of late.
PP tipster Shane O’Brien has scoured the markets and found picks for a value-stuffed Bet Builder. Let’s get his Aston Villa v West Ham betting tips.
Aston Villa v West Ham tips
Aston Villa to win
Both teams to score, yes
Ollie Watkins to have 2+ shots on target
Over 6.5 Aston Villa corners
West Ham to receive the most cards
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 18/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
WHEN: Friday, 10th of January, 8pm
WHERE: Villa Park, Birmingham
TV: ITV
Aston Villa to win
Graham Potter faces an incredibly difficult task in his first game as West Ham boss, with a daunting trip to Villa Park. Aston Villa have been almost flawless at home this season and have not lost at Villa Park in the league since their opening home game of the season against Arsenal.
Villa have taken 13 points from their last five league outings at Villa Park and have taken seven points from three home Champions League games this season, conceding no goals. They were, however, dumped out of the League Cup in a 2-1 home defeat to Crystal Palace in their only other home game in a domestic cup so far this season.
It still represents an incredibly tricky challenge for Potter, who was only announced as West Ham boss on Wednesday and will not have had much time to work with his new squad.
Potter takes over a side that has conceded nine in their last two games and boasts one of the worst defensive records in the division.
This is an excellent opportunity for Villa to kickstart a run in the FA Cup, a competition they have been incredibly disappointing in since reaching the final in 2015. Villa have only managed to progress past the third round on two occasions since losing to Arsenal at Wembley ten years ago – and were knocked out in the fourth round on both occasions.
This is an opportunity to put that right, and they should take it with both hands.
Both teams to score, yes
Neither Villa nor West Ham have proved particularly adept at keeping goals out this season. The Hammers have shipped 39 goals in 20 league outings this season and boast one of the worst goal differences in the league, with only Southampton and Leicester boasting worse records at this stage of the season.
The home side, on the other hand, boasts a negative goal difference despite sitting eighth in the league and has scored and conceded a combined total of 62 goals in 20 games at a rate of more than three per game.
In their last five league games, Villa have scored seven and conceded nine, with both teams finding the back of the net in four of those five games.
Villa ran out 2-1 winners when the sides met at the London Stadium back in August and it would not be a surprise in the slightest if we saw a similar result on Friday night.
Ollie Watkins to have 2+ shots on target
Ollie Watkins has not been as prolific this season as he was last campaign, but he has still managed eight goals at the midpoint of the season, with the vast majority of those coming at home.
Six of Watkins’ eight goals this season have come at Villa Park, and the Villa striker will carry the majority of the goalscoring burden on Friday night in the wake of Jhon Durán’s absence through suspension. Even if Durán was not suspended, Watkins would be more likely to fire a couple of efforts on goal than any other Villa player.
Watkins averages 2.6 shots per game for Villa this season, by far the highest average of any player in the squad.That average rises to a whopping 3.6 shots per game when only home games are taken into account.
West Ham, meanwhile, face over 16 shots per game in the league, the fourth-highest average in the division, and will surely give Villa chances, regardless of how is in the dugout for the Hammers.
Over 6.5 Aston Villa corners
It is unsurprising to learn that West Ham also rank among the top of the league in terms of corners faced this season, given their willingness to allow their opponents to try their luck at will. The Londoners face an average of six corners per game this season, the sixth-highest average in the division.
Villa, on the other hand, average around 6.5 corners per game and attempt an average of 15 shots per home game.
They are likely to put severe pressure on West Ham in Potter’s first game in charge and should win more than a half-dozen corners for their troubles.
West Ham to receive the most cards
The two sides here boast almost identical disciplinary records at this halfway point of the season.
Villa have received 42 bookings and two red cards after 20 games, with the Hammers only faring slightly worse, receiving 45 bookings and two red cards. Even their foul averages are identical, with both sides averaging 11.7 fouls per game in the Premier League.
However, Villa’s home average is slightly lower than West Ham’s away average, and West Ham are more likely to commit fouls worthy of bookings, considering Villa are likely to dominate the ball based on possession statistics.
Aston Villa v West Ham betting tips
Aston Villa to win
Both teams to score, yes
Ollie Watkins to have 2+ shots on target
Over 6.5 Aston Villa corners
West Ham to receive the most cards
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 18/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
READ MORE
- Shoot on over to Paddy Power News for the best Football Betting Tips & News
- Aston Villa v West Ham Tips: Joe Cole’s 3/1 Bet Builder for Friday night
- Introducing Super Sub 2.0: Now with even more markets, including a raft of 2+ and 3+ options!
- Paddy’s Super Sub totaliser: Almost 100,000 EPL bets win from our ace offer so far in 2024/25