Friday’s Championship clash sees Derby make the glamorous trip to Luton. Both sides are struggling for form at the moment, with the hosts winning just one of their last five, and Derby only picking up one victory in their last seven outings.
Our EFL tipster James O’Rourke dives into the markets looking for four winning legs for his Friday night Bet Builder. The weekend is upon us so let’s get his Luton v Derby betting tips.
Luton v Derby Bet Builder tips
Tahith Chong to commit 1+ fouls
Curtis Nelson To Commit 1+ Fouls
Elijah Adebayo to have 2+ shots on target
Jerry Yates to have 1+ shots on target
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 15/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
WHEN: Friday, 20th of December, 8pm
WHERE: Kenilworth Road, Luton
TV: Sky Sports Football
Tahith Chong to commit 1+ fouls
After a brief spell in and out of the team, Tahith Chong has now started the last two games for Luton in a wing back role. One would suspect he retains his place for the visit of Derby on Friday night.
Rob Edwards isn’t blessed with too many options to chop and change his starting eleven, plus Chong on his day can be a dangerman for his side. That is at least offensively as defensively he is not the most reliable.
Given it has been a season mainly of strife for Luton, Edwards has struggled to find ways of making his side tougher to break down out of possession. Chong is not a wing back by trade but playing in that position means having to have responsibilities in both directions.
Only Plymouth have conceded more goals than The Hatters in Championship action this season. Chong will be tested and dragged back into areas he doesn’t really want to be in.
He’ll have no choice to do so if he is to keep his spot in the team, however. Since starting the last two matches as a wing back, the Dutchman has committed a total of three fouls.
Even including when playing in his more preferred advanced midfielder or winger roles, Chong has still regularly made fouls this season. In fact, he has only failed to commit at least one foul in four of the 18 games he has started this season in all competitions.
Curtis Nelson To Commit 1+ Fouls
Ranked joint-fifth in the Derby squad this season across Championship games is Curtis Nelson in relation to number of fouls made. The central defender has played every minute of every Derby league match this season, proving his importance to the team in the eyes of his manager.
Once again we should expect him line up for the Rams in this encounter. The 31-year-old should play as part of a back-five, which is the system Paul Warne tends to change to for away fixtures.
Given how Luton play a very direct style, it means the Rams back line will frequently be put under pressure in this contest. As such, the likes of Nelson will be called upon on a regular basis to bat away balls into the box or aerial deliveries in his general direction.
It is on moments like this where someone such as the former Cardiff City man could easily make a foul or two over a likely testing 90 minutes. He and all of his team mates had an easy night of it last time out when hammering Portsmouth 4-0, but the spell prior to that saw him challenged.
He went four straight games of committing at least one foul, and the same is said of in six of his last eight displays.
Elijah Adebayo to have 2+ shots on target
Elijah Adebayo is starting to produce a consistent return of goals after doing everything but that in the opening months of the campaign. Tree goals in his last four appearances demonstrates he is likely finally over his slump, particularly as the ex-Walsall man fired in only two goals prior to this revival in 2024/25.
He has been a consistent goal threat all season, but just not taking his chances. He has five league goals to his name, however he is ranked first out of all players in the Championship for xG.
Adebayo is roughly five goals short of where he should be on that basis, but he is a firm favourite of Rob Edwards and always stated the goals would return. There is certainly a greater self-belief about him in recent times and the stats have backed that up.
He has three goals in his last four games but what is also noticeable is the striker has recorded two or more shots on target in three of those as well. On eight occasions this season he has managed to work the goalkeeper at least twice, so this is clearly a striker that tends to be in the right place at the right time more often than not.
Jerry Yates to have 1+ shots on target
Rams manager Paul Warne is making regular changes to his starting line-up of late. Derby play a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 system in home games and are now switching to a 5-3-2 shape when on the road.
However, Jerry Yates is a constant in the team regardless. He has worked with Warne before and clearly understands how to perform in the tactical way his manager wants. The ex-Rotherham forward is Derby’s top league scorer with four and recently scored in three successive games.
It is now four without a goal for the recently turned 28-year-old but it hasn’t been for the want of trying. Over his last seven appearances, Yates has had a shot on target in six of them. The one he didn’t was away to a Leeds side that have been practically unbeatable in home matches this season.
45.45% of Yates’ overall shots in league action this season have actually been on target. This is ranked second in the squad of those who regularly play and it proves his accuracy when in front of goal. That should continue away to a Luton side that have leaked goals for fun across the campaign.
Luton v Derby betting tips
Tahith Chong to commit 1+ fouls
Curtis Nelson To Commit 1+ Fouls
Elijah Adebayo to have 2+ shots on target
Jerry Yates to have 1+ shots on target
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 15/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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