Friday’s Championship match sees Derby hosting Portsmouth at Pride Park. The hosts have failed to win any of their last six in the League while Pompey have gone four without a loss.
Our EFL tipster James O’Rourke has dived into the markets with value on his mind and has found five picks for his Bet Builder. Let’s get his Derby v Portsmouth betting tips.
Derby v Portsmouth Bet Builder tips
Curtis Nelson to commit 1+fouls
Liam Thompson to commit 1+ fouls
Freddie Potts to commit 1+ fouls
Half Time Draw
Portsmouth or Draw Double Chance
- A bet builder with these bets pays at approximately 13/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
WHEN: Friday, 13th of December, 8pm
WHERE: Pride Park Stadium, Derby
TV: Sky Sports Main Event/Football
Curtis Nelson to commit 1+fouls
Curtis Nelson is an important cog in the wheel at Derby, so much so that manager Paul Warne practically always selects him when he is available.
The 31-year-old was a major reason for the Rams’ securing what was quite a rare clean sheet this season at Burnley on Tuesday night. That was an energy-sapping evening for all Derby players, given they had to soak up plenty of pressure from their high-flying opponents.
Although that was a good away point, it did extend their winless run to six. Portsmouth at home is the type of match they cannot adopt similar tactics compared to facing Burnley away. The fans will demand a front-foot performance, so it’ll place even more pressure on their defence, knowing more risks will be taken to push on for goals.
Therefore, someone like Nelson will have to stand up and be counted, which, to be fair, he always does.
However, he is a frequent fouler on the team, and recent matches have proved this. The former Cardiff centre-back has committed at least one foul in all of his last four appearances, where his average fouls per game in this period standing at 1.50.
He has also made at least one foul in nine of his previous 12 Derby displays.
Liam Thompson to commit 1+ fouls
It had been a very frustrating season for Liam Thompson, who has struggled with injuries and a real lack of game time in the Championship over the opening few months.
However, Paul Warne has since returned to his reliable squad member to bolster his midfield despite a negative run of results. Thompson has now become one of the first names on the team sheet.
It took until November for the versatile performer to grab his first league start of the campaign. He has since started six of their last seven league encounters. Form regarding team results in that period doesn’t necessarily read too well, but there is no denying he has had a positive impact since his reintroduction. He is particularly handy out of possession with his pressing.
Naturally, when pressing, it can lead to fouls being made. Unfortunately for Thompson, he is no longer an exception in that regard. The 22-year-old is now starting to offer more of an aggressive edge to this side of his game. Across the last three matches, he has committed at least one foul, and he should do the same here.
Freddie Potts to commit 1+ fouls
Like Liam Thompson at Derby, Freddie Potts has had to wait patiently for his chance to get into the Portsmouth team.
He has successfully managed to break into John Mousinho’s plans, and it doesn’t appear that he will drop out of the starting eleven any time soon. The West Ham United loanee spent the first month of the season watching from the bench, but he has since started 13 matches in a row.
He has formed a tidy partnership with Andre Dozzell in the Pompey midfield pivot, and in recent times, this has finally started to gel nicely together. Mousinho’s men are now four unbeaten, and Potts’s role and impact are certainly one contributing factor. The 21-year-old is playing like someone of more advanced years and experience at this level.
Based on his season statistics, he is certainly an all-action type of player. Over those 13 games, only in two of those has Potts himself not been fouled.
More importantly for this selection, in four of his previous five, he has committed a foul against an opponent. Although he likes to get on the ball and dictate, it would appear his manager has asked for more out-of-possession, which is leading to him attracting the attention of referees more frequently.
Half Time Draw
Portsmouth may enter this encounter lower down the table than Derby, but the home side will approach this feeling the pressure a little more.
The main reason is not purely because of their overall winless run, but specifically, their recent home results will have concerned them. Warne’s side are four without success at Pride Park, losing their past two in succession.
Home setbacks to Sheffield Wednesday and Swansea just don’t read very well. Draws against struggling duo Plymouth and Hull don’t look great either. They just aren’t so comfortable taking the game to the opponent in these circumstances, and the lack of balance has become apparent in their home showings.
The away team are slowly improving on the road but we’re not quite at the stage where we can say they’re totally comfortable.
The schedule also has to be taken into account here, meaning this might be a slow burner on Friday night after both played as recently as Tuesday. The onus will be on Derby from the off, while Portsmouth won’t be totally unhappy to sit back in spells.
Portsmouth or Draw Double Chance
The momentum is certainly more in the camp of Portsmouth approaching Friday’s clash. Sure, Derby got a great away point and clean sheet at promotion candidates Burnley on Tuesday, but they know they cannot play on Friday in the same manner.
It gives them something to build on in terms of the result, but they need to prove themselves playing more ambitiously. They’ve not done that of late.
Portsmouth endured a nightmare at the start of the campaign and had been rooted to the bottom of the standings for some time. They’ve turned the corner to a degree in averaging two points a game over their past four, of which they are unbeaten.
Of course, more work is still to be done. However, the impression is that they are trending in the right direction, whereas Derby arguably are not.
A big home crowd will demand a strong showing here. The pressure is on them, whereas Pompey can afford to relax a little more now that their league situation has improved over the last few matches.
Their performances of late have been much-improved and they were a little unlucky not to beat Norwich earlier in the week.
Derby v Portsmouth betting tips
Curtis Nelson to commit 1+fouls
Liam Thompson to commit 1+ fouls
Freddie Potts to commit 1+ fouls
Half Time Draw
Portsmouth or Draw Double Chance
- A bet builder with these bets pays at approximately 13/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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