Football Acca Tips: Tuesday’s tasty 10/1 Championship punt

James O'Rourke is back with a value-packed Acca.

By / Football Tips / 1 month ago

We have seven Championship matches lined-up for Tuesday night. Paddy’s EFL tipster James O’Rourke, has combed through the fixtures and four four value picks for you.

EFL Acca betting tips

*All games kickoff at 7:45pm and are televised on Sky Sports+

Burnley v Derby – Burnley to win to nil
Sheffield Wednesday v Blackburn – Under 2.5 goals
Plymouth v Swansea – Both teams to score, yes
Sunderland v Bristol City – Under 2.5 goals

Burnley v Derby – Burnley to win to nil

Burnley are on a six-match unbeaten run, during which they won four matches and kept five clean sheets. Scott Parker’s side have conceded seven goals in league action this season. Seven—just take that in for a second.

Also, remember this is across 19 matches. Only three of those came at Turf Moor, where they are unsurprisingly unbeaten. Also, there is no shock in the fact that they have the best defensive record in the division.

Of the nine Championship clashes where they have dropped points this season, The Clarets have done so against top-half opponents in four of them. Of the three to bottom-half clubs, two were away, and the other was their big local derby with Preston. Therefore, they generally get the job done at home to the likes of Derby, who are currently 16th in the standings.

Of Burnley’s 11 season meetings to clubs positioned 13th or lower, they’ve retained eight clean sheets.

The comments of Derby boss Paul Warne after the Leeds loss on Saturday did indicate how they approach away clashes against the big teams. Leeds were comfortable 2-0 winners on the day, but afterward, Warne admitted, “I don’t know how we were going to create a chance – I know that sounds negative, but that’s the truth.” Burnley is an equally tough match for them to face, so should we necessarily expect anything different on Tuesday?

Also, Derby’s season won’t be defined by these sorts of matches. They aren’t quite a free hi,t but the reality is that there will be no real backlash should they come off second best here. Furthermore, Warne’s men have lost seven of ten season meetings with top-half teams. Also, they’ve been away to Leeds, Sheffield United, and Sunderland, all in the top-four, and lost to nil.

Sheffield Wednesday v Blackburn – Under 2.5 goals

On Tuesday, Sheffield Wednesday, unbeaten in four, entertain a Blackburn outfit on a four-match winning streak. The difference, however, is that The Owls won’t necessarily enter this contest in high spirits after only drawing at home to out-of-form Preston at the weekend. Manager Danny Röhl classified the result as ‘a defeat’ and stated they ‘deserved nothing’.

It also extended their indifferent run of results at Hillsborough, where they’ve only won two of their previous nine.

Wednesday are also on a six-match sequence where each has contained no more than two goals. Although losing just one of those, they are still one of those sides where you never know what version you’ll get game-to-game. They’ve been in and around mid-table for most of the season, so in that respect, it isn’t a big surprise. They are a side that generally stays in games, and quite often, they turn out to be close affairs. Only four of their league contests have seen either side on the day win by greater than a two-goal margin.

Blackburn have had close games of their own lately but has been successful. It is four wins in succession, three of which by a 1-0 score. The first three were warranted triumphs based on xG, but that wasn’t the case on Saturday. Hull may have slid to the bottom of the table after losing at home to Rovers, but The Tigers had a stronger xG of 0.90 compared to the 0.30 of their opponents. Perhaps it might be a sign this winning streak may not extend much longer, if at all.

John Eustace’s side have only seen an average of 2.10 goals per away league encounter this season. Three of those more recent four would also feature under 2.5 goals. We touched upon earlier how Sheff Wed havent been so convincing at home of late. So the fact 70% of their home league clashes have also been under 2.5 goals probably reflects how tough it has been to dominate at Hillsborough.

Plymouth v Swansea – Both teams to score, yes

Seeing their Saturday home encounter with Oxford get postponed wasn’t really ideal for Plymouth. They’ve been desperate to get back onto the pitch since their latest away day disaster at Bristol City, when losing 4-0.

Home games are something they should relish, as 15 of their 17 points have been claimed at Home Park. Oxford were a beatable opponent on paper, but it does heap more pressure on this clash with Swansea.

Despite clearly being stronger at home compared to on the road, it certainly doesn’t mean Plymouth will get it all their own way here. Having a rest at the weekend may benefit them potentially, but Argyle are just a team not to have maximum faith in.

Wayne Rooney’s side have the worst defensive record in the Championship. They’ve achieved a total of one clean sheet in league action all season. 75% of their home encounters have though featured both teams scoring.

Swansea are another of those clutch of teams around the mid-table section where any outcome wouldn’t be a big shock in any match they play. Their past nine league fixtures have resulted in three wins, three draws, and three defeats. However, there has been a change in more recent times as their previous four clashes have averaged 4.00 goals, and all had both teams scoring.

Those four make up 50% of all their Championship games this season to include each team scoring, so this recent trend could be one to continue for a little while yet. They will still look to dominate possession, like they always do, but it seems they are more prepared to get it forward quicker. This will help this particularly game have more of an open feel to it. Both shall play to win, of that there can be no doubt.

Sunderland v Bristol City – Under 2.5 goals

Six games without a win is now a thing of the past for Sunderland, who resumed winning ways on Saturday at home to Stoke. They’ll hope that will be a springboard to return them to the levels they reached prior to that winless streak. The Black Cats remain unbeaten at Stadium of Light this season, and welcome a wounded Bristol City that suffered a deserved 3-0 loss to Portsmouth at the weekend.

Tuesday’s home side are having the kind of season nobody necessarily expected them to have so far. Therefore, a blip probably came as no major surprise. However, they have had injuries and suspensions hitting them particularly hardly recently, but those issues have started to clear up. Only 2.21 goals on average have been seen in their Championship clashes this season.

Bristol City have been described as somewhat ‘streaky’ for many years now, regardless of the overhaul of players and managers in that period. That again looks to be the case, as a recent eight-game unbeaten run has been and gone, and now they’ve lost four in six. They’ve also failed to score in three of their last four, so Sunderland could be a more than awkward opponent for them right now.

Goals just don’t jump off the page here in what is anticipated to be quite a tactical affair. The Robins prefer to play a patient passing game, but they’ll have issues breaking down this rather stubborn opponent, especially since they have struggled to score late. Also, only three teams in the league have more clean sheets than Régis Le Bris’ side, so they know how to keep things tight at the back.

Tuesday’s EFL betting tips

Burnley v Derby – Burnley to win to nil
Sheffield Wednesday v Blackburn – Under 2.5 goals
Plymouth v Swansea – Both teams to score, yes
Sunderland v Bristol City – Under 2.5 goals

READ MORE

The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now

THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW

What do you think?