Despite the Premier League taking centre stage midweek ahead of a hectic schedule, the EFL is back, as is Matthew O’Regan, who has an acca for the masses.
EFL betting tips
3pm: Plymouth v Oxford United – Over 2.5 goals
3pm: Cambridge United v Shrewsbury – Under 2.5 goals
3pm: Stockport v Exeter – Stockport win and over 1.5 goals
3pm: Wycombe v Reading – Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
3pm: MK Dons v Barrow – MK Dons to win or draw
- An accumulator with these bets pays at approximately 17/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*Since publication Plymouth v Oxford has been postponed
3pm: Plymouth v Oxford United – Over 2.5 goals
Rumours persist that Wayne Rooney is on the brink of being sacked as Plymouth manager as the disconnect between the players and supporters grows. It is being reported that home games against Oxford United and Swansea will determine the England legend’s future.
Rooney will be relieved with this as his side performs much better in front of the Home Park faithful. Plymouth have taken just two points from their eight away games, with their last two coming by a 10-1 margin. However, they are unbeaten in their last six at home.
Of their last six home games, over 2.5 goals have landed five times, with their 18 league games this season seeing an average of 3.11 goals.
Oxford United sit three points clear of safety in their first season back in the Championship. Des Buckingham’s side have also struggled on the road, picking up just two points from eight games. The U’s away games have seen an average of 2.875 goals, with five seeing at least three goals.
It is a must-win for Argyle, so expect them to attack from the off. That may suit Oxford United, who will look to shock the hosts in transition in an end-to-end game.
3pm: Cambridge United v Shrewsbury – Under 2.5 goals
Saturday sees League One’s basement club, Shrewsbury Town, host Cambridge United in a crunch relegation clash.
Draws to Barnsley, Northampton and Bolton made it seem like the U’s were turning a corner under Gary Monk, but a 1-2 home loss in the FA Cup to Wigan and a 3-0 defeat to Reading further dampened the mood at the Abbey Stadium.
Cambridge’s 14 goals scored is the 14 fewest in the league, with seven of their eight home league games seeing under three goals. The exception was a 4-4 draw with Blackpool in the opening stages of the season. This game accounts for 42% of the goals at the Abbey Stadium this season.
Salop were on a six-losing streak before the flamboyant Gareth Ainsworth led them to a shock victory over Birmingham in his first game. However, he could not repeat the heroics at home to Blackpool, with his side losing 1-2.
It was a bizarre game, with Mal Benning scoring a goal from his own half and Blackpool scoring two goals despite being restricted to just 0.16 xG. Ainsworth is known for his pragmatic style of football, and he is looking to implement this at Shrewsbury, with his side averaging just 32% possession in his opening two games.
Shrewsbury have scored just 17 goals this season, with half of their away games seeing under 2.5 goals. Two of these games saw 12 goals- accounting for the other half of the goals involved away from home.
Both sides are feeble in attack, so a cagey, low-margin game is to be expected.
3pm: Stockport v Exeter – Stockport win & Over 1.5 goals
After storming to the League Two title ahead of favourites Wrexham, Stockport County have started their League One campaign in stellar form and currently sit fifth. A 2-0 away loss to title favourites Birmingham City thwarted a three-game winning streak in the league, but The Hatters remain in a strong position.
Edgeley Park has become a fortress, with David Challinors side picking up 17 points from nine home games. Four of the five home wins have seen Stockport score at least twice, except the 1-0 victory over Wrexham, despite dominance from the start.
Exeter are performing well defensively, conceding just 17 goals. However, when looking at the underlying metrics, it is clear that they are massively overperforming, relying on the heroics of on-loan goalkeeper Joe Whitworth.
Gary Caldwell’s team have the second biggest xGa overperformance, conceding 8.24 goals less than they should’ve based on the quality of chances they have conceded.
We are starting to see some regression in the Grecians defensively, conceding at least two in their last three league games. Stockport County and the in-form Louis Barry will fancy their chances of making it four straight games.
3pm: Wycombe v Reading – Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
Wycombe have become a staple of my weekly EFL column, but for good reason. The Chairboys are the league entertainers, scoring a league-high 38 goals as they sit atop the league.
Matt Bloomfield’s side have scored at least one goal in every game and boast a potent, quick and strong frontline. Of their 18 games this season, 11 have seen both teams scoring.
Despite a host of off-field issues, the Royals are still in playoff contention. Saturday may be the last time Ruben Selles is in the dugout for the Berkshire side, as he has been granted permission to speak to Championship side Hull. The Spaniard will look to improve his side’s dismal away record before departing.
The Royals have won seven of their eight home games but have only taken nine points away from home. Their away games are averaging over 3.5 goals, with 8/9 seeing BTTS. They’ve scored in all bar away games and face a Wycombe side who have scored in every game this season, so a high-scoring game is in store.
3pm: Barrow v MK Dons – MK Dons to win or draw
Despite heading into the season as the title favourites, MK Dons started the season sluggishly. Mike Williamson was on the brink of the sack before strugglers Carlisle appointed him as manager, leaving the Dons to appoint Scott Lindsey from Crawley.
The 52-year-old performed miracles in achieving promotion with Crawley last year but was convinced to drop back down to League Two. His decision is paying dividends, with his side storming up to fourth place after six straight wins.
They visit a Barrow side who have lost just twice at home. The Bluebirds are, however, struggling in front of goal at Holker Street, scoring just 13 times in nine games. Paul Clement’s side are also in a poor run of form, winning just one of their last ten games.
They may struggle to take all three points against an MK Dons who have won six in a row, scoring 17 in the process.
EFL betting tips
3pm: Plymouth v Oxford United – Over 2.5 goals
3pm: Cambridge United v Shrewsbury – Under 2.5 goals
3pm: Stockport v Exeter – Stockport win and over 1.5 goals
3pm: Wycombe v Reading – Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
3pm: MK Dons v Barrow – MK Dons to win or draw
- An accumulator with these bets pays at approximately 17/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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