EFL betting tips
12.30pm: Fleetwood v Colchester – Under 2.5 goals
1.30pm: Blackburn v Leeds – Under 2.5 goals
3pm: Bristol City v Plymouth – Bristol City win and over 1.5 goals
3pm: Coventry v Cardiff – Coventry to win
3pm: Norwich v Luton – Norwich to win
- An accumulator with these bets pays at approximately 17/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
12.30pm: Fleetwood v Colchester – Under 2.5 goals
We kick off in League Two as Fleetwood Town host Colchester United at Highbury. Appointed on New Year’s Eve 2023, Charlie Adam was unable to prevent Fleetwood from relegation.
The Cod Army hierarchy kept faith in the Scot who has his side in 13th despite having a couple of games in hand. While their away games have been entertaining with an average of 3.43 goals, their home games have been more understated, seeing an average of just 1.57 goals. Under 2.5 goals has landed in 5/7 Fleetwood home games.
The Cowley Brothers are renowned for their pragmatism and for having well-drilled sides, but they’ve failed to have much impact on Colchester thus far. The U’s sit 20th, four points clear of the drop zone. Away from home their games have seen 25 goals for an average of 3.125 goals.
However, 16 of these came in three of their first four away games against AFC Wimbledon, Walsall and Morecambe. Since the 4-0 loss at Walsall, Colchester away games have seen just seven goals, for an average of 1.75 goals. Under 2.5 goals has landed in five of eight away.
1.30pm: Blackburn v Leeds – Under 2.5 goals
Blackburn made it back-to-back away wins with a shock 0-1 win over Middlesbrough. Dom Hyam scored the only goal of the game after 77 minutes, poking home after a well-worked move. While the goal should’ve been called offside, it was the least that the visitors deserved.
John Eustace’s side now sit eighth, just two points off the playoffs with a game in hand. Rovers started the season in stellar form, winning four of their opening games in an unbeaten seven-match stretch. They also scored 14 goals in this run, only scoring six in the next nine.
Yuki Ohashi’s 11-game goal drought has coincided with Blackburn’s goal struggles. Of their eight home games, five have seen less than three goals – all five the most recent. BTTS No has also landed in these five, with games at Ewood Park tending to be cagey.
Leeds are the rightful favourites for the league table. Daniel Farke is blessed with endless talent in attack, with his side scoring 31 goals so far- the most in the league. Twenty of these goals have come away, with the Whites scoring 11 in eight away games.
Six of eight Leeds away games have seen under 2.5 goals, with the games averaging 2.25 goals. Blackburn’s last five games have averaged just 1.4 goals, so expect another low-scoring affair.
3pm: Bristol City v Plymouth – City win & Over 1.5 goals
Bristol City have had a mixed start to the season in 12th place, with Liam Manning desperate for his side to be more consistent. He would be most annoyed with their home form, with the ten points accumulated at Ashton Gate, the fourth fewest in the league.
However, they have also been pitted against the current top three already, so expect an upturn in form. Wins against Millwall (4-3) and Oxford (2-1) will encourage the City faithful.
They will see a home game against lowly Plymouth as the perfect opportunity to gain momentum. The Pilgrims have developed a reputation as the late-goal kings, scoring seven home goals past the 80th minute.
Away from home, Argyle have failed to replicate the fighting spirit so often demonstrated at Home Park. They have picked up just two away points in nine games, losing 6-1 at Norwich last time, conceding 23 goals and scoring three. Their two away points came against Derby and QPR, which saw them lose 1.09-0.14 and 2.40-0.14 on xG, respectively.
Wayne Rooney’s side average 2.5 goals, 21 shots and 2.26 xGA against per game. Their pitiful away record was demonstrated in the 3-0 loss at Leeds, failing to have a shot at Elland Road.
Bristol City will look to exploit Plymouth’s dismal away record and kickstart the season heading into the new year.
3pm: Coventry v Cardiff – Coventry Win
Coventry made the headlines when they sacked legendary manager Mark Robins after a shock loss home loss to Derby. This decision was questioned even more when Frank Lampard was hired as his replacement.
The Sky-blues currently sit in 17th, just two points clear of relegation in a tight bottom half. However, the Coventry hierarchy are ambitious and will believe they can close the ten-point gap from the playoffs.
There is no obvious reason why they are performing so poorly compared to last season, with Coventry having a strong summer of recruitment, while keeping every key player bar Callum O’Hare. It is believed that the form will turn around, starting with a win against Cardiff.
The Bluebirds sacked Erol Bulut after just one point from the opening six games. Omer Riza steadied the ship, registering 14 points from his first seven games, but recent performances suggest Cardiff are reverting to early-season form.
They’ve picked up just one point in their last four games, coming in a 1-1 draw at Sheffield Wednesday – a game in which the hosts accumulated 2.77 xG. Riza looked deflated and dejected in the press conference – a telling sign that he is struggling with the pressure of holding the forte while the board searches for a permanent manager.
3pm: Norwich v Luton – Norwich Win
Under the guise of inexperienced Danish manager Johannes Hoff Thorup, Norwich have displayed inconsistency as they adapt to a new system. The Canaries have won five games, lost five and drawn seven. A run of seven games without a win was halted emphatically, dismantling Plymouth 6-1 in midweek.
At Carrow Road, Norwich have picked up 13 points from eight home games, scoring 21 goals and losing just once. The three wins have come comfortably, beating Watford 4-1, Hull 4-0 and Plymouth 6-1.
Three of the draws have come against Leeds, Sheffield United and Middlesbrough, so Norwich have had a tough start in front of their own fans. Visiting Carrow Road on Saturday are Luton.
The Hatters look a shadow of the side from previous years who excited so many with their attacking style of play. Rob Edwards’ had a team that would fight for him, but they look devoid of all hope and belief this season.
Luton now sit 16th in the league after a 3-0 away defeat at Leeds in which they were dominated from minute one. The Hatters have now lost their last five away games, conceding 16 goals in the process. Against a free-flowing Norwich side, Luton may be on the end of another heavy defeat.
EFL betting tips
12.30pm: Fleetwood v Colchester – Under 2.5 goals
1.30pm: Blackburn v Leeds – Under 2.5 goals
3pm: Bristol City v Plymouth – Bristol City win and over 1.5 goals
3pm: Coventry v Cardiff – Coventry to win
3pm: Norwich v Luton – Norwich to win
- An accumulator with these bets pays at approximately 17/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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