We were blessed with the return of the Championship on the weekend and have even more second-tier action with five games on Wednesday.
PP’s EFL guru Matthew O’Regan has his best bets for all five games.
Multi-Match Bet Builder picks
7:45pm Cardiff v QPR
Under 2.5 goals
7:45pm Portsmouth v Millwall
Under 3.5 goals
Portsmouth and draw
7:45pm Leeds v Luton
Leeds to win
Both teams to score, no
7:45pm Middlesbrough v Blackburn
Middlesbrough to win
Over 2.5 goals
8pm Derby v Swansea
Ebou Adams to commit 2+ fouls
Under 3.5 goals
- A multi-match bet builder with these bets pays at approximately 23/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Cardiff v QPR
Championship match at Cardiff City Stadium
TV: Sky Sports+, 7:45pm
Under 2.5 goals
Two struggling sides meet at the Cardiff City stadium as 21st-place Cardiff host basement boys QPR.
One point from the opening seven games saw Erol Bulut fired as Cardiff manager, with Omer Riza placed in temporary charge. A 4-1 loss at Hull kicked off his tenure before four wins and two draws in the next six saw them climb out of the relegation places. However, the Bluebirds are now three without a win, having lost 1-0 to Luton, 1-3 to Blackburn, and drawn 1-1 at Sheffield Wednesday.
QPR looked destined for relegation last year under Gareth Ainsworth before Marti Cifuentes came in and steered the club to safety. There was optimism heading into this season that the Spaniard could continue last year’s heroics, but things have failed to materialise for the West London side. Rangers are 13 without a win in all competitions, with just one league win to their name.
Of Cardiff’s 16 games, 11 have seen less than three goals. QPR have seen under 2.5 in 10/16, with five of these coming in seven away games. Both sides’ games are averaging just 2.44 goals. The hosts are the third-lowest scorers with 15 goals, while the visitors have scored the fewest goals (13).
Portsmouth v Millwall
Championship match at Fratton Park, Portsmouth
TV: Sky Sports+, 7:45pm
Under 3.5 goals
Newly promoted Portsmouth meet Millwall at Fratton Park. The hosts sit 23rd, while the visitors are flying high in eighth.
John Mousinho’s side have found adapting to the Championship difficult, winning just two of their opening 16 games. However, a 3-1 win over Preston last time out, coupled with the return of goalscoring machine Colby Bishop, is reason for belief.
Fratton Park was a fortress for Pompey as they won League One last year, but they have struggled in front of their fans this year, picking up just six points. However, they have lost just three of their seven home games, with these coming in tough fixtures against Sunderland, West Brom, and Sheffield Wednesday.
Under 3.5 goals has landed in 10/15 Portsmouth games, as well as 5/7 at home.
Portsmouth and draw
Millwall have defied the odds to climb to eighth. Neil Harris’ side have certainly favoured substance over style, with their last four wins being 1-0. The Lions are unbeaten in eight games, with these games seeing just ten goals.
Their games have seen an average of just over two goals, with under 3.5 goals landing in 13/16 and 6/7 at home. If Millwall are to qualify for the playoffs, they must improve their away form, with their only win on the road coming thanks to a last-minute winner at Swansea.
Harris’ side rode their luck, conceding 17 shots and 1.93 xG, compared to their six shots and 0.37 xG.
Leeds v Luton
Championship match at Elland Road, Leeds
TV: Sky Sports+, 7:45pm
Leeds to win
Leeds started the season as favourites for the league and looked to be justifying that tag thus far. The Whites are currently at the top of a tight Championship on goal difference.
Daniel Farke has been criticized for his poor away record at Leeds, perhaps a major reason they only qualified for the playoffs last year instead of automatic promotion.
However, his record at home cannot be disputed, with Leeds picking up 19 points from eight. They have also conceded just five goals at Elland Road, with three of them coming against Portsmouth, despite the visitors accumulating just 0.15 xG aside from the penalty.
Leeds’s only other home game in which they dropped points was against Burnley, in which Leeds won the xG count 1.24 – 0.66. They have won to nil in five of their eight home games.
Both teams to score, no
Many people expected Luton to bounce straight back up after relegation from the Premier League. However, Rob Edwards’ side has struggled and currently sits 16th, just three points clear of relegation.
The Hatters are unbeaten in their last three home games, drawing 1-1 with West Brom before 1-0 wins over Cardiff and Hull, respectively. However, they continue to perform poorly away, losing 5-1 to Middlesbrough, 3-2 to Coventry, 2-0 to Sheffield United, and 3-1 to Plymouth in their last four outings.
Luton have picked up just four points in seven away games, scoring just five goals. They are accumulating roughly 1xG per away game. Expect this number to be lower at a packed-out Elland Road.
Middlesbrough v Blackburn
Championship match at Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
TV: Sky Sports+, 7:45pm
Middlesbrough to win
Middlesbrough were tipped to improve on last season’s eighth-place finish and push for promotion this year. However, they started the season slowly but finally look to be turning a corner.
1-4, 5-1, and 2-6 wins over QPR, Luton and Oxford, respectively, has showcased Boro’s strength going forward. Michael Carrick’s side currently sit fifth, but their ‘expected position’, according to Opta, is second.
Middlesbrough are now the top scorers in the league and top the xG charts but are still scoring less than their xG figures suggest they should. While they have been more clinical in recent weeks, their early season form dampens their numbers. Now that they have started to click, it will take a lot to stop Boro on their quest for promotion.
Blackburn started the season unbeaten in their first seven but have since petered off and find themselves in ninth. John Eustace’s side are doing well despite off-the-field financial issues, but it would not be a surprise to see them slide down the league in the latter stages of the season.
Over 2.5 goals
Of their seven away games, Blackburn have seen at least three goals in four. Rovers’ away games have averaged 2.4 xG, with cagey rivalry games at Burnley and Preston skewing the numbers.
With the form Boro are in, it would not be a surprise to see them put at least two past Blackburn, with the visitors more than capable of scoring.
Derby v Swansea
Championship match at Pride Park, Derby
TV: Sky SportsFootball/Main Event, 8pm
Ebou Adams to commit 2+ fouls
The loan signing of Ebou Adams in January transformed Derby’s season and saw them promoted automatically to the Championship. Paul Warne then signed the 27-year-old on a permanent in the summer, and he has started 14 of their 16 games this season.
The Gambian displays extreme tenacity and dogged determination, averaging 2.99 tackles won and 2.22 fouls committed per 90. He has committed at least two fouls in all bar one start this season.
Under 3.5 goals
Derby games are averaging 2.5 goals, with 14 of their 16 games seeing under 2.5 goals. Swansea currently sit one point behind Wednesday’s hosts. Despite their dramatic 3-4 loss to Leeds on Sunday, their games are averaging just 1.75 goals, with a league-high 15/16 seeing less than three goals.
Championship betting tips
Cardiff v QPR
Under 2.5 goals
Portsmouth v Millwall
Under 3.5 goals
Portsmouth and draw
Leeds v Luton
Leeds to win
Both teams to score, no
Middlesbrough v Blackburn
Middlesbrough to win
Over 2.5 goals
Derby v Swansea
Ebou Adams to commit 2+ fouls
Under 3.5 goals
- A multi-match bet builder with these bets pays at approximately 23/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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