While it is a quiet slate for League One and League Two teams, Matthew O’Regan delivers his four best bets for the Championship midweek action, including a tasty 9/2 in the Dockyard Derby.
Championship Midweek Betting Tips
Tuesday 20:00 – Plymouth v Portsmouth – Both teams to score, 3+ corners each team and 2+ cards each team
Wednesday 19:45 – Millwall v Leeds – Under 3.5 goals, over 3.5 cards
Wednesday 19:45 – Coventry v Derby – Coventry to win
Thursday 20:00 – West Brom v Burnley – Under 2.5 goals, over 2.5 cards
Tuesday
Plymouth v Portsmouth – Both teams to score, 3+ corners each team and 2+ cards each team
EFL Championship match at the Home Park Stadium
TV: Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Football, 8pm
Two of the Championship’s bottom three in Plymouth and Portsmouth face off in a Dockyard Derby on Tuesday night.
Under Wayne Rooney’s guise, Argyle have struggled this season and sit 22nd in the league, failing to win any of their last four matches.
If Plymouth are to survive this season, it will be their home form to thank, picking up 11 of their 12 points at Home Park. The recent 3-0 drubbing at Leeds epitomised their pitiful away form, failing to have a single shot or even a corner at Elland Road. It made it six away games from seven that they had been unable to score.
At home, however, they have lost just once, picking up 11 points in six games. With 12 goals scored and nine conceded, games at Home Park are averaging 3.5 goals. Both Teams To Score has landed in 5/6 of their home games.
Rooney’s side averages 4.83 corners per home game, hitting at least three in all bar one. Argyle have conceded 3+ corners in 5/6. They’ve also picked up at least two cards in 3/6 and drawn 2+ in 5/6.
Portsmouth sits at the bottom of the table on their return to the Championship but have had a tough start. They also come into this game without a win in three.
Surprisingly, John Mousinho’s side have picked up six of their nine points away from home. Pompey scored ten goals on their travels and conceded 17, for an average of 3.9 goals. Both Teams to Score has landed in 6/7 of their away games.
While Portsmouth have only accumulated 3+ corners in 4/7 away games, they failed against Leeds, Middlesbrough and Burnley – three of the stronger teams in the league. They’ve averaged 2.86 cards per away game, receiving 2+ cards in 6/7 and drawing 2+ in 4/7.
James Bell is refereeing this encounter, averaging 5.66 cards per game. The game is crucial in the relegation battle and to halt both teams’ lousy run of forms, so we should see a feisty encounter in Devon.
Wednesday
Millwall v Leeds – Under 3.5 goals and over 3.5 cards
EFL Championship match at The New Den
TV: Sky Sports+, 7:45pm
Millwall, who are unbeaten in five games, host a Leeds side unbeaten in eight.
Three successive 1-0 wins have seen Millwall climb up to seventh in the league, with a win against Leeds potentially taking them into the top six.
Neil Harris tends to divide opinion, with the Millwall manager often lambasted for his pragmatism. However, the 47-year-old epitomises what it means to be Lions manager and is dragging his side up the table.
With 16 goals scored and 12 conceded in 13 games, Millwall games are averaging 2.15 goals, with 12 coming in the opening two games. Since then, Millwall games have seen just 16 goals for an average of 1.45. They have seen more than three goals in just three matches.
Leeds looks like a hard team to stop now. They have been unbeaten in their last eight games. Like Harris, Daniel Farke has been criticized for his pragmatism away from home.
Leeds have scored seven goals and conceded three in six games for an average of 1.66 goals. At home, the Whites have scored 15 and conceded five for an average of 2.85.
Only one of their away games have seen more than three goals, with this coming away to Sunderland thanks to a freak error from Illan Meslier.
Leeds away games have averaged 5.16 cards, and all six have seen at least four. Millwall home games average 4.43 cards, with 5/7 seeing four or more cards. Refereeing this feisty affair is Leigh Doughty, who is averaging 5.16 cards per game, showing over three in 5/6 league games.
Coventry v Derby – Coventry to win
EFL Championship match at the Coventry Building Society Arena, 7:45pm
Coventry finished last season in ninth place and lost on penalties in the FA Cup semi-final against Manchester United. After a strong summer window in which only Callum O’Hare departed, The Skyblues were confident heading into this season but started the campaign poorly.
Two wins from the opening ten games left Mark Robins’ side in a precarious position, but a draw at QPR and wins against Luton and Middlesbrough has seen them rise to 13th, just six points off the playoffs.
Derby County have had a mixed start to the season and sit 14th in the league, behind Wednesday’s hosts on goal difference. Their home and away form has been starkly contrasted, with Derby County picking up 13 points from six home games while only accumulating two points on their travels.
Paul Warne’s side lacks the quality to attack teams on the road, so the Rams tend to sit in and frustrate hosts. Coventry should have too much quality for Derby and look a good price to continue their mini resurgence.
Thursday
West Brom vs Burnley – Under 2.5 goals and over 2.5 cards
EFL Championship match at The Hawthorns
TV: Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Football, 8pm
Two title-chasing teams, West Brom and Burnley, face off in the only Championship game on Thursday evening.
Despite off-the-field limitations, Carlos Corberan has his side challenging towards the top of the table. The Baggies currently sit sixth despite being winless in their last seven games.
West Brom boasts the third-best defensive record in the league, conceding just eight goals in 13 games. However, they have found goals hard to come by, with 14 goals the fewest in the top 11.
Their games have averaged just 1.69 goals, with all six home games under 2.5 goals. Games at the Hawthorns have been starved of attacking quality, with just three goals scored in six games.
Burnley are also out of form, winning just once in their last five games. Scott Parker has come in for criticism for his side’s feeble attacking presence, accumulating just 0.20 xG in the 1-0 loss at Millwall.
The Clarets have the joint-best defensive record in the league, but fans are becoming frustrated with the side that scored just four times in the last seven games.
Both sides are out of form and struggling in attack, so a low-scoring affair is expected. At least three cards were seen in 10/13 Burnley games and 11/13 West Brom games, and over 2.5 cards were seen in 10/11 Tom Nield games.
Championship Midweek Betting Tips
Tuesday 20:00 – Plymouth v Portsmouth – Both teams to score, 3+ corners each team and 2+ cards each team
Wednesday 19:45 – Millwall v Leeds – Under 3.5 goals, over 3.5 cards
Wednesday 19:45 – Coventry v Derby – Coventry to win
Thursday 20:00 – West Brom v Burnley – Under 2.5 goals, over 2.5 cards
- If you fancy putting these four games into a Bet Builder, it pays out at a whopping 34/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
READ MORE
- Shoot on over to Paddy Power News for the best Football Betting Tips & News
- Football Accumulator Tips: Tuesday night’s 7/1 EFL Punt
- Next Premier League manager to be sacked: Latest sack race odds for 2024/25 season
- Paddy’s Super Sub totaliser: Almost 94,000 EPL bets win from our ace offer so far in 2024/25
The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now
THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
