Was this a pivotal weekend in the 2024/25 Premier League title race? Liverpool will certainly hope so, as the Reds came from behind to beat Brighton, as Arsenal and Manchester City lost.
It was a big week at the bottom too. Southampton collected their first league win of the season, while Ipswich suffered injury time heartbreak for the second week running. Crystal Palace then drew at Wolves, a result which didn’t hugely help either side.
Here’s five things our football tipster and statto Andrew Beasley spotted this weekend which could influence your future betting choices.
City’s not-so shock Bournemouth loss
Two weeks ago, this column noted Bournemouth’s underlying data was very impressive. Even so, they were still around 9/2 to beat Man City before collecting their shock 2-1 win on Saturday.
It could have been far worse for the champions, as the Cherries amassed six Opta-defined big chances, meaning opportunities where you would expect the attacker to score.
In the first 10 games of last season, City conceded 12 big chances. They’re already up to 23 this term, almost as many as the 25 Fulham and Nottingham Forest have conceded between them.
Based on the odds, Bournemouth’s win was the second biggest upset of the season after Forest’s triumph at Anfield. With City’s porous defence, don’t be surprised if they suffer another shock loss soon.
Goals, goals, goals for Gary O’Neil
Coming into the weekend, Wolves’ matches had seen the most goals in the 2024/25 Premier League campaign while Crystal Palace’s had seen the fewest. Something had to give at Molineux on Saturday night, and for much of the game, it was entertainment that gave way.
But then the cork came off the bottle and the goals flowed, with four inside 17 minutes. As the game also ended level, the flurry of chaos likely ruined quite a few bets.
The level of entertainment in Wolves’ matches is unlikely to last. Their average of 4.1 total goals per game would be a new record for the Premier League.
For now, though, if you’re betting on a game featuring Gary O’Neil’s men, expect goals. Their last nine have now seen both teams score, with the previous seven paying out on over 2.5 goals.
Super super Jordan Ayew
There were lots of people baffled by Leicester’s call to pay £5m for 33-year-old Jordan Ayew. He’s repaid that fee in injury time alone this season.
The former Palace man scored in the 94th minute at Ipswich on Saturday, following on from a goal that occurred four minutes later in the 3-2 win over Southampton. Maybe he can only deliver against other recent Championship sides, but Ayew’s goals have earned four of the Foxes’ five away points.
Only Jhon Duran has more Premier League goals from the bench this season. If you’re betting in play on Leicester, keep an eye on whether Steve Cooper has sent Ayew out to warm up. He could be the Super Sub you need.
Salah hits the clutch for Arne Slot
What is there left to say about Mohamed Salah? He moved clear in eighth place on the Premier League goal scorer chart by scoring the decisive goal in Liverpool’s comeback victory over Brighton.
It was the 48th goal he’s scored in the competition which Transfermarkt define as ‘winning’. As well as the obvious sort we saw at Anfield on Saturday, any goal which gives the victorious side the lead counts too. Scored the opener in a 9-0 thumping? You’re in.
The stat highlights how clutch Salah is. He drew level with Sergio Aguero for Premier League winners, despite scoring 20 fewer goals in total, and he’s already passed Andrew Cole, when 23 behind him overall. Few players will have decided more bets than the Egyptian.
Salah is converting a higher proportion of league shots than in any season since his first at Liverpool, a campaign in which he scored 32 times. In the final year of his contract, he’s playing with a point to prove.
Big Ange keeping the Spursy vibes
We should have assumed it wouldn’t be ‘first goal wins’ at Tottenham on Sunday.
Aston Villa have secured 10 points after going behind this season, second only to Man City (13). Behind them now in third are Spurs, with nine.
Ange Postecoglou’s side were second in these standings last season, with their total of points recovered from deficits now 34 across his time in charge. With the inescapable ‘lads, it’s Tottenham’ vibe which haunts the club, Spurs have dropped 25 points from leading positions in that time.
That means 59 points have changed hands in Tottenham games in the Postecoglou era, more than any other side. It’s just how they play, mate, and it means your bet is always up in the air when Spurs are involved.
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