The big story of week eight in the 2024/25 Premier League was that the illuminati that controls English football decided it was time for Arsenal to lose a game. I’d backed them to win, I wish I’d known.
To rub salt in Mikel Areta’s William Saliba-shaped wound, the greatest centre-back in the world (according to Arsenal fans) will miss the visit of Liverpool next weekend. The Gunners also lost thanks to an impressive corner routine. That’s supposed to be their special skill, no fair.
Despite what you see on social media, there were other important matters which took place this weekend. Here’s five things our football tipster and stats man Andrew Beasley noticed.
Card season upon us
It’s not impossible to win away from home when having a man sent off. Aston Villa proved the point at Craven Cottage this weekend.
However, Unai Emery’s boys were already 1-3 up when Jaden Philogene was dismissed in the 93rd minute, not goalless and only about half an hour in like Arsenal were. Villa’s cause was aided by Fulham already being down to 10, while there were red cards for Mohammed Kudus and Ryan Fraser on Saturday too.
The flurry was likely a coincidence rather than referees clamping down, as several were thanks to denials of goal scoring opportunities, not harshly punished fouls.
But across the last 10 seasons, there have now been 13 match weeks which saw at least four red cards. Nine of them occurred by week 10 of a campaign, though, with refs keen to lay down the law early doors. Even if a repeat next weekend is unlikely, bookings are through the roof too. Cards markets are your friend at this time of year.
Bottlers again olé, olé
An article from Opta Analyst earlier this week noted 12 of the first 70 matches this season saw a team come from behind to win. This equates to 17.1% of games, which is above the 16.6% from last season which is the existing Premier League record. They seem to be getting more extreme too.
Leicester came back from 2-0 down to win 2-3 at Southampton on Saturday, just as Brighton did against Tottenham two weeks ago and two teams have done against Everton this term.
This weekend also saw Spurs, Villa and both Manchester clubs recover from a goal down to take three points, meaning the already record-breaking pace has sped up further.
Only Liverpool and Nottingham Forest have yet to be involved in such a game, for good or bad. If you’re betting in play this season, don’t rule out a team bottling it or recovering, depending on your point of view.
Wins on the horizon for Cottagers & Cherries
Bournemouth and Fulham had contrasting results this weekend. They currently sit side by side in mid-table.
Their underlying performances have been far stronger, though. Expected goal data suggests both deserve to be around the top four, rather than level on points with trash like Manchester United.
They have been let down by their finishing, which is why you can’t rely on them to upset the odds every time. Don’t be surprised if both teams win away from home next weekend though. The Cherries and Whites are better than you think.
Haaland’s (mini) goal drought
Manchester City left it late to beat Wolves 1-2 on Sunday, managing to win without Erling Haaland. Don’t get me wrong, he played. But Gary O’Neil’s side became just the third to keep the big Norwegian shotless in a Premier League match.
It means he has failed to score in three consecutive league games in England for the first time. Since he scored the opener against Arsenal, the only attacker to score for City is Jeremy Doku. His goal against Fulham aside, Josko Gvardiol, Mateo Kovacic and John Stones have chipped in two apiece in this period.
Haaland will be back on the goal trail soon enough. The goal scorer markets have rarely been as hard to call for the champions as they are right now though.
Garnacho’s shot count
Alejandro Garnacho was undoubtedly United’s main threat in their 2-1 win over Brentford. He had eight shots while also creating a couple of chances for teammates.
His most notable stat was that he had five shots on target. Half the teams in the Premier League aren’t averaging that many per game this season.
Garnacho also achieved this against Sheffield United in April, meaning he’s done so twice in his last 11 league starts. Only five players have done this more times in the last decade of Premier League football. Mohamed Salah, for instance, has had five shots on target in three matches since joining Liverpool.
From a betting perspective, the Argentina international isn’t yet consistent. He has made 44 league appearances (35 starts) since the start of 2023/24 and has had a shot on target in 22 of them. But when Garnacho is on it, he keeps opposition goalkeepers very busy indeed.
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