Croatia v Scotland predictions: @footyaccums' best bets

Domestic action stops for another international break and we’ve got Nations League games to enjoy (kind of!). The Tartan Army travel to the Maksimir Stadium in Zagreb and a lot of eyes will be on Croatia v Scotland.

Scotland have lost their opening two matches against Poland and Portugal so Steve Clarke will demand a performance from his side.

Twitter (that’s X for the dweebs out there) tipsters @FootyAccums are back again looking to help you pocket some pennies. Here are their best bets!

Croatia v Scotland predictions

Both teams to score
Correct score: Croatia 2-1 Scotland

WHEN: Saturday 12th of October, 5pm
WHERE: Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb, Croatia

Two sides who are deemed to be underperforming go head-to-head as Scotland travel to Croatia in the UEFA Nations League.

Steve Clarke takes his Scotland side to Zagreb in the knowledge that they are in need of a positive result, having gone six games without a win. There have been some difficult games in that run but losing their first two Nations League games, both to late goals, won’t have done their already low confidence any good.

Hosts Croatia earned a much-needed win against Poland last time out, their first since before Euro 2024 where they exited at the group stages.

The key man for the Tartan Army is undoubtedly Scott McTominay. His displays for his country have been exceptional, with three goals in his last four, with Clarke often getting credited for knowing how to get the best out of the midfielder where different Manchester United managers couldn’t. McTominay’s summer move to Napoli hasn’t done him any harm either, with two goals and an assist in his last three certainly catching the eye as Antonio Conte’s men top Serie A.

The Scottish star will face a midfield that contains Croatian veterans Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovacic who still remain key for Zlatko Dalic’s side. 39-year-old Modric scored the decisive goal in Croatia’s victory against Poland in the September international break and whilst Kovacic has never been prolific, his three goals for Manchester City this season mean he is already on his 3rd highest-scoring club campaign of his career.

Whilst those two remain constants in Dalic’s side, the midfield has been an issue with his team too often exposed during the summer, making them susceptible to counter-attacks which is where Scotland can thrive with those lung-bursting runs from McTominay particularly dangerous. The trio of Kovacic, Modric and Marcelo Brozovic was broken up by Brozovic’s summer retirement from international footbal, although his 2023 move to Saudi Arabia did appear to harm the quality in which he could operate.

Since then, Dalic has played around with different midfield options with Borna Sosa, Marko Pjaca, Mario Pasalic and Martin Baturina all getting chances to stake their claim, however, some of those don’t actually play in those positions for their clubs, making for a somewhat disjointed set-up. There is a need to freshen up an ageing squad as well with the likes of Andrej Kramaric, Ante Budimir and Ivan Perišić all still involved but all aged 33 or above. Their experience is valuable, but the notable drop-off in quality replacements will give Scotland hope.

The decision to move to a back three appears to be with strengthening the side at the back as the key focus, but early goals conceded to Portugal as well as Poland missing some big chances during the last break suggest there are still teething problems.

Scotland’s backline still possesses Liverpool defender Andy Robertson, but his club form has been mixed and has brought into question how many years he has left at the highest level. Centre-back Grant Hanley and first-choice goalkeeper Angus Gunn both play in the Championship, whilst Anthony Ralston isn’t first choice for Celtic. The Scotland midfield has enough top-level quality, but they seem too weak at the back to keep out this Croatia side.

Croatia Team News

There are no notable changes or absences for the Croatia squad going into this game.

Scotland Team News

Scotland are without John McGinn, which is a big loss for them, whilst there are doubts over goalkeeper Angus Gunn’s availability, meaning veteran Craig Gordon could be back between the posts.

Back-up left-back Greg Taylor will also be absent having picked up an injury against Borussia Dortmund for Celtic in the Champions League, whilst Tommy Conway and regular Scott McKenna are also injured.

Nicky Devlin, Liam Lindsay and West Ham summer signing Andy Irving have all earned their first call-ups, whilst Che Adams is back in the squad having missed the September internationals.

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Form Guide

Croatia

Hosts Croatia picked up a win in their last match with Poland, which was their first competitive win since beating Armenia in qualifying for Euro 2024. Dalic’s men failed to win any of their three Euro 2024 fixtures, losing to Spain and drawing with Albania and Italy to see them eliminated at the group stages.

Croatia beat Portugal just before the summer tournament in a warm-up friendly but lost to Roberto Martinez’s side last month in their Nations League opener.

Scotland

Scotland are winless in six since their 2-0 win over Gibraltar in early June. Clarke’s men have lost four of those games and drew with Finland and Switzerland.

These two teams met in Euro 2020 (played in 2021) where Croatia ran out 3-1 winners.

Croatia v Scotland betting tips

Despite neither of these teams arriving into the game in the best form, both certainly have the capability of scoring whilst both have fragile defences. Croatia’s clean sheet against Poland last time out was their first since a 3-0 win over North Macedonia back in June whilst Scotland’s only clean sheet in the last year was also back in early June when they defeated Gibraltar 2-0.

Both Teams to Score has landed in five of Scotland’s last six and four of Croatia’s with Dalic’s men only failing to score against eventual Euro 2024 winners Spain in that time. The hosts should have too much quality for Steve Clarke’s men here but Scotland have netted against the likes of Portugal, Switzerland, Germany, France and England since September of last year so against a questionable Croatia defence, they should get chances here.

Results for the Tartan Army against opponents of similar quality have been tight with a 1-1 draw with Switzerland and a narrow defeat to Portugal as the most comparable so we forecast a narrow defeat here. Our prediction: Croatia 2-1 Scotland.

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