Sunderland v Leeds Tips: Goals at a premium in our 27/1 Bet Builder

Will Sunderland's sensational start to the season continue?

By / Championship, Football Tips / 3 months ago

We’ve got Championship action to get stuck into on Friday night as top-of-the-table Sunderland host Leeds.

The Black Cats have been the surprise package of the season so far, lying one point clear at the top of the league after eight games. Leeds, who are still the heavy favourites to win the division, are back in fifth.

A win by two or more goals would send Daniel Farke’s side to the top of the table though, and our tipster James O’Rourke has studied the markets to find a value Bet Builder. Check out his Sunderland v Leeds betting tips below.

Sunderland v Leeds Tips

Under 2.5 goals
Sunderland or draw (double chance)
Dan Niel to commit 2+ fouls
Jobe Bellingham to commit 1+ fouls
Largie Ramazani to have 1+ shots on target

WHEN: Friday 4th of October, 8pm
WHERE: Stadium of Light, Sunderland, England
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Football

Under 2.5 goals

Sunderland and Leeds have been two of the stronger performing teams over the opening section of the Championship season. Of the 16 combined league matches the two clubs have played, there have only been three defeats, those all being by a thin one-goal margin. Considering that has been the case, it would be no surprise at all if few goals were scored in this Friday night battle. This clash is also between two of the best and most organised defensive units in the division and that fact tells a story of what might be to come.

Besides their 4-0 victory against Sheffield Wednesday, Sunderland have generally played in close games, certainly in relation to the score. They are having to work hard in every game, plus Leeds is a rather unique test, so The Black Cats will have to be really on the point defensively, which in turn could take something away from them offensively. They’ve won every home match this season without conceding, so it could be that Leeds also have something to think about to see how they win this one. Six of Leeds’ eight league encounters this season ended under 2.5 goals, so they really do know what it is like to be in a tight contest.

Double chance: Sunderland or draw

As mentioned, Sunderland have won every match they’ve had at The Stadium of Light this season. To do so without conceding in the process is all the more impressive from Régis Le Bris’ side, who have one of the league’s best Expected Goals Against returns, but it still isn’t as strong as Leeds’. Nevertheless, Leeds may have lost only once in league action this season, but there is the slightest of slight question marks on them away from home.

It is harsh to say that, however they are facing what is currently a top team in the form of Sunderland. Leeds are still unbeaten on the road in league action, but it does include two draws against West Brom and Norwich, who have been their toughest away fixtures to date. The other two were routine wins over teams in and around the bottom places, so Sunderland is a big step up. Draws were no bad results there for Daniel Farke’s side and a draw wouldn’t necessarily be a poor result to take away from Sunderland. The Black Cats have taken a big step forward this season and there is the concern Leeds will really miss the injured Ethan Ampadu here, who holds the team together so well from midfield.

Tactically, it may easily turn out that both cancel one another out considering they have similar strengths, certainly defensively. For all that there is plenty of attacking talent on display within each starting eleven, it won’t be so straightforward to carve out significant scoring opportunities.

Dan Niel to commit two or more fouls

Having come through the ranks at the club, it was a proud day when Dan Neil was appointed as Sunderland captain for this season. Some may say the armband pumped him up a little too much in their 31st August home win over Burnley as he was shown a third career red card. Nevertheless, it demonstrates not only his commitment to the cause but a sheer willingness to get involved in the thick of the action. He has shown in the past that he can do the neat and tidy stuff, but this edge to his game makes him who he is, and is why Neil is a key part of the jigsaw in the Sunderland starting eleven.

Leeds is always a big game for any opposing player because of who they are. The Sunderland support will be really up for this given it should be a packed Stadium of Light on Friday night. That may get into the head of Neil knowing how important a win would be to everyone. Also, Leeds are an impressive outfit with plenty of talented individuals. They will have spells of pressure throughout, which will bring Neil firmly into the game. The 23-year-old has committed two or more fouls already on three occasions this season, so he has history.

Over the course of this season in all competitions, Leeds have drawn an average of 13.67 fouls per game. Knowing Neil is one of the more combative players within the opposing team, there is every chance the central midfielder will be involved heavily in trying to regain possession, especially considering Leeds average that high amount of fouls on them.

Jobe Bellingham to commit one or more fouls

Neil’s central midfield partner this season has mainly been Jobe Bellingham. He appears to have found a home in this area of the pitch having been largely utilised higher up throughout his career. Manager Régis Le Bris certainly hasn’t restricted him from still getting into advanced areas, proved by scoring in Tuesday’s home victory over Derby, but he does have additional defensive duties that he is perhaps still adjusting to. Given Sunderland have had a great season so far, he has clearly done a good job from this central position, but Leeds will be a stern test of his game management.

The former Birmingham City man has played every minute of their league campaign so far, which means that as someone likely to play a full match, it increases every possibility for him, including committing fouls. Despite only just turning 19, he is another Sunderland midfielder demonstrating a real edge to his game. A common theme has emerged from across his matches in 2024/25 and that is he has committed at least one foul in every single encounter. There is no reason why this should necessarily change, plus he has confirmed his all-action nature by being fouled himself in all bar one clash this season, too. Jobe may not quite be the top footballing talent in the Bellingham family at this point but this is a player very much on the up and has been set a key role in trying to get Sunderland back to the Premier League.

Largie Ramazani to have one or more shots on target

Largie Ramazani has made a huge impact during his short time at Elland Road. Leeds would have parted with a handsome sum of money to lure the Belgian from Spanish side Almería and he is already proving to be a more than handy recruit. One plus for him is he arrived match-fit having had a full pre-season with his now former club and clearly he has taken to the Championship quicker than most others coming from an overseas league tends to do so. An injury to Daniel James has probably fast-forwarded his way into Daniel Farke’s starting eleven and is currently enjoy a three-game run in the side.

Within those three contests the former Manchester United man has scored twice and provided an assist for another. Farke will no doubt keep him in the team should he continue to have such an impact. What does look certain is he’ll start at The Stadium of Light on Friday, which is something Sunderland right back Trai Hume won’t necessarily be looking forward to that much.

Ramazani clearly is a forward that likes to simply get on with things. There isn’t really a patient side to him, meaning that when he gets the ball in the wide areas then his first thought is to drive forward. This therefore increases his chances to fire in shots on goal and have an immediate impact in the final third. Over the last three games, which he started, that kind of approach can be reflected in his statistics. The 23-year-old has had a total of seven shots within that period, as well as recording at least one shot on target in each match, despite not playing the full 90 minutes in any. With an international break to come, he’ll look to give one last big effort to try and get on the scoresheet once more.

Sunderland v Leeds Bet Builder Tips

Under 2.5 goals
Sunderland or draw
Dan Niel to commit two or more fouls
Jobe Bellingham to commit one or more fouls
Largie Ramazani to have one or more shots on target

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

READ MORE

The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now

THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW

Paddy Power Football Tipsters

What do you think?