The Championship returns on Friday night when Wayne Rooney’s Plymouth host Rob Edward’s Luton Town at Home Park.
Our tipster, James O’Rourke, has dived head-first into the market to find a value-heavy Bet Builder. Let’s get into his Plymouth v Luton betting tips.
Plymouth v Luton tips
Luton to win
Under 3.5 goals
Carlton Morris to score
Morgan Whittaker to have 1+ shots on target
Joe Edwards to commit 1+ fouls
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 13/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
WHEN: Friday 27th of September, 20:00
WHERE: Home Park, Plymouth
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football
Luton to win
Luton most certainly experienced a hangover after relegation from the Premier League after starting this campaign with no wins in five in all competitions. However, they look to have turned the corner on a count of back-to-back victories against Millwall and Sheffield Wednesday, respectively. However, they only beat Sheff Wed at home mainly because their opponents received a red card when The Hatters were one goal behind, so maybe another three points on Friday would indicate truly being over their funk.
It is not a foregone conclusion that they will do so, although Plymouth have recorded one win over their previous six in all competitions, which includes losing three of their past four. It was hoped the home success over a then-unbeaten Sunderland would propel them forward, and although performances have improved, they are falling short more often than not, albeit only narrowly.
However, the main difference comes in terms of creating chances. There is a notable distance regarding Expected Goals, with Luton well ahead of their opponents. Rob Edwards’ side have had issues taking those until recently, whereas Plymouth haven’t kept a league clean sheet all season. Therefore, the visitors should fancy their chances of making it three in a row.
Under 3.5 goals
Goals were often the name of the game for Luton in the Premier League last season. In 2023/24, those contests would average 3.61 goals, plus they topped the league in relation to matches featuring both teams scoring. However, a big reason for that was they would frequently be punished defensively, whereas they are less likely to be so playing in the league below. So much so, this season, only one of their games in the league or cup contained a minimum of four goals, which came in their first match of the campaign.
Plymouth have played mainly in tight affairs and have more often than not, come off second-best. They suffered a heavy 4-0 loss at Sheffield Wednesday on the opening weekend, which is the one outlier, and manager Rooney had to react to this given it was a nightmare 90 minutes for them. Since then, only one game involving them ended over 3.5 goals, which was the win over Sunderland. Given how Luton have had issues taking their chances and not living up to their Expected Goals figure, this game is less likely to blast into a goal-fest. Plymouth especially know they cannot open up too much given how the Sheff Wed game turned out, which left a big scar on the team.
Carlton Morris to score
One player who suffered from Luton’s disappointing and below-par start to the campaign was Carlton Morris. Given he has been their top-scorer for two years running, he is essentially the man tasked with scoring the goals, but he wasn’t. Zero goals five games in saw Rob Edwards drop him to the bench for the Millwall contest, which they won 1-0. He would then appear off the bench in the next match, against Sheffield Wednesday, with something of a point to prove, and he did exactly that. The former Barnsley man entered the contest on the hour mark and would net two goals in the final 30 minutes to secure the points for him and his teammates.
He will certainly hope that will act as a positive turning point for him that will see him find the back of the net more regularly, as he has been used to during his time at Luton. His strike partner, Elijah Adebayo, is still searching for his first goal of the campaign despite having 15 shots in the league so far, so the goals need to come from somewhere. Morris has only had seven shots, yet found the target with four of those, proving that it could have been he wasn’t getting the chances instead of missing them beforehand. A confident Carlton Morris is a big, big problem for Plymouth.
Morgan Whittaker to have 1+ shots on target
The biggest asset within the Plymouth ranks is Morgan Whittaker, and it is perhaps more of a surprise than anything that he is still with them. It wasn’t so long ago that Lazio had a serious interest in the winger. But to his credit, he remains focused on doing good things for Argyle. He would be almost irreplaceable if he did move on, however he hasn’t quite had the start to the season he’d have wanted. Whittaker has just one goal to his name, albeit it was a long-range screamer away at QPR, but clearly, he wants more.
Although lacking in goals, it hasn’t been for the want of trying. He has had far and away more shots than any of his teammates across their fixtures in all competitions this season. The former Swansea man has 25, whilst the next in line is striker Ryan Hardie with 12, despite Whittaker not starting every match. Also, he is the only member of the squad to have reached double-digit shots on target. This is a player desperate to score more goals. Given the forward banged in 19 Championship goals last season, he will be hoping to reach those standards again, and Luton shall undoubtedly have to keep a firm eye on one of the league’s best players.
Joe Edwards to commit 1+ fouls
It has been a funny old season already for Joe Edwards. The 33-year-old is the club captain at Home Park and has been on the books with them since joining in 2019. However, manager Wayne Rooney said early in the campaign that he wouldn’t necessarily be the first-choice right-back, mainly considering his age, and yet fast forward a few months, and he is precisely that. Edwards has started each of the last five Championship clashes and even helped himself to a rare goal when smashing in the winner against Sunderland on September 14th.
However, he will only be judged on what he does defensively, given he is part of the back four, and it is perhaps this area where Rooney may have a little doubt over him. Given that the modern-day winger is often tricky, skilful, young, and a continual threat, Edwards, a central midfielder by trade, is presented with a big challenge. Across his appearances this season, he is averaging 2.00 fouls per game. Interestingly, he has been fouled himself on average 1.67 times, proving he is an offensive threat and is prepared to get forward. Getting up and down the pitch at 33 is not so easy today and given he clearly has a habit of committing fouls, he should make at least one on Friday night.
Plymouth v Luton tips
Luton to win
Under 3.5 goals
Carlton Morris to score
Morgan Whittaker to have 1+ shots on target
Joe Edwards to commit 1+ fouls
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 13/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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