Sunday’s Serie A offering sees the first Milan derby of the season take place with Inter hosting AC Milan at the San Siro.
Top social media tipster, Oli Nixon loves a bit of Italian football and has dug into the stats for Sunday’s monster clash. Let’s get into his Inter v AC Milan betting tips.
Inter v AC Milan Bet Builder tips
Fikayo Tomori to commit 2+ fouls
Theo Hernandez to commit 2+ fouls
Theo Hernandez to be fouled 2+ times
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 9/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
WHEN: Sunday, September 22nd, 19:45
WHERE: The San Siro, Milan
TV: TNT Sports 1
Inter stormed to the Serie A title last season with a whopping 19-point lead over Milan in second place. Simone Inzaghi’s team held Manchester City a midweek 0-0 Champions League draw and they are unbeaten so far this season in domestic action.
One of the fiercest derbies in European football takes centre stage on Sunday evening as Inter and AC Milan clash in the Milanese derby. Even with this fixture taking place early on in the season, it’s a game where fireworks usually occur and with the last meeting between them bringing 3 red cards, it’s to the fouls market we head as I expect a fiery affair.
Recent battles have two things in common: Inter victories and a shedload of fouls. Inter have won the last 6 meetings which is their longest winning streak ever in the derby and those matches had an average of 31.8 fouls per game. Man in the middle Maurizio Mariano last officiated this match in the first of those six wins and awarded 30 fouls, so all things considered, fouls feel an obvious place to start.
Inter v AC Milan tips
Fikayo Tomori to commit 2+ fouls
Fikayo Tomori is our first pick to commit two fouls as this is something he’s managed in each of his last four appearances against Inter, and been booked in the last 3. He’s yet to commit a foul this season, and only averaged 1.11 fouls per 90 minutes last season, but for a game of this stature, a players’ head-to-head record often gives an insight on how well they handle the pressure of the occasion.
Another key reason for this uptick in fouls in this fixture lies in his direct opposition of Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram. The duo were fouled a combined total of 15 times across the 2 meetings last season and this should come as no surprise as they were felled 1.95 and 1.58 times per 90 respectively last season.
Theo Hernandez to commit 2+ fouls
Rivalries need characters to give them extra spice and it’s safe to say Theo Hernandez provides that. A career spanning just eight years has seen the French wing back collect 67 yellow cards and five reds, so his involvement where fouls are concerned, should come as no surprise. We need him to commit two fouls for the second leg of this Bet Builder, and like Tomori, his recent history in this fixture suggests we can expect it.
He’s offended nine times in the last four meetings, including being sent off in the most recent game, for a clash with Denzel Dumfries that saw both dismissed. A spat between them on social media added fuel to the fire and so hopefully Dumfries is in the starting line-up to fire up Hernandez more than usual.
Theo Hernandez to be fouled 2+ times
The final leg also involves the all-action Frenchman and it’s for Hernandez to be fouled two or more times. I’ve already mentioned the Dumfries rivalry and should he start, his foul average of 1.47 per 90 last season and the fact he is opposing Theo should mean fouls. Hernandez has been a target for Inter fouls throughout his 15 appearances against them, with a massive 35 against, at an average of 2.3 per game.
So far this season he’s been fouled two or more times in all three starts and with the head-to-head data as well as the Dumfries matchup, everything points to him drawing fouls.
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 9/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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