Man United v Barnsley Tips: A 22/1 goal-scoring flutter for tonight

The League Cup returns on Tuesday night with Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United hosting League One’s Barnsley. What could possibly go wrong for the Red Devils, eh?

Our tipster Oli Nixon has poured over the stats and has unearthed some potential value in the goal-scorer markets. Let’s get into his Man United v Barnsley betting tips.

Man United v Barnsley tips

Marc Roberts to score (best bet)
Marc Roberts to score first (optional extra)

WHEN: Tuesday, September 17th, 8pm
WHERE: Old Trafford, Manchester
TV: Sky Sports Main Event/Football

EFL Cup games at this early stage of the competition throw up some interesting team selections which can make choosing bets a challenge. Throw in an international break last week and it makes predicting Erik ten Haag’s lineup even more difficult and so I’ll be steering clear of them.

The landscape for Barnsley is somewhat different though and they will surely be going full strength. I can only imagine they have been heavily prioritising this glamour trip to Old Trafford and that played a part in their 3-0 humbling at the mighty Stevenage on Saturday…

Having combed the props markets for value, I’ve landed on Tykes experienced centre back Marc Roberts to score anytime or to score first. On the face of it, backing a defender who has only scored once in the last 3 years to score for a League One side travelling to Man Utd might be considered brave or perhaps even stupid.

Erik Ten Hag

Hopefully I can convince you it’s the former with some data… Barnsley’s system under Darrell Clarke is centred around their set piece threat. They have wing backs in Barry Cotter and Corey O’Keefe who have excellent delivery and more crosses into the box tends to lead to more corners as their average of 6.89 per game can attest to.

They’re also highly effective from these corners, scoring 3 goals from set pieces already in the league this season and another in the first round of the EFL Cup with our man Roberts responsible for one of those. They’re not just a threat from corners though, they also utilise long throws from both sides of the pitch and this again has produced plenty of goalscoring opportunities for their defenders.

Roberts himself has had shots in 4 of his 6 starts whilst centre back partner Donovan Pines has also had 4 shots and scored twice. To get to this stage of the competition, Barnsley have knocked out Wigan and Championship side Sheffield United and so are certainly capable of springing a surprise and across those two matches, they’ve racked up 1.06xg from set pieces along the way, further emphasising the threat they pose from such situations.

Darrell Clarke

One of the biggest factors in this bet for me though is that the aforementioned Pines suffered a concussion at the weekend and so will play no part in this fixture. He’s undoubtedly their biggest threat with a goal every 158 minutes in his Barnsley career so far and with him missing, I expect Roberts to be the beneficiary as he becomes the focal point for all set pieces.

There’s also always the chance that Man Utd rotate players and select young, inexperienced centre backs who can be attacked from set pieces, especially as their first-choice players in this position seem to be made of glass and so could do with the rest. Whenever I back goalscorer selections, as well as being on the anytime price I usually back the player to score first as well.

We’re getting treble the price for first goalscorer and when Roberts is only likely to be a threat from set pieces, if he does score then there’s no reason it can’t be early. In any case, we can have a small stakes interest bet here backed with decent data that allows us to cheer on the underdog and get excited every time Barnsley get a corner, wide free kick or even a throw in within the attacking third of the pitch.

I think we can all agree that Barnsley winning this 1-0 with a late back post header from Roberts would be incredibly on brand for Ten Haag!