The Premier League is back! No international football for a whole month now folks, as the day job returns on Saturday lunchtime.
Getting stuck into this one is Oli Nixon, who has been through the stats to serve up his Southampton v Man United betting tips for the clash on the south coast.
Southampton v Man United Bet Builder tips
Kobbie Mainoo to be fouled 2+ times
Noussair Mazraoui to be fouled 1+ times
Kyle Walker-Peters to have 1+ shots
Joshua Zirkzee to commit 1+ fouls
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 8/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
WHEN: Saturday 14th of September, 12.30pm
WHERE: St Mary’s, Southampton
TV: TNT Sports 1 TNT Sports Ultimate
Kobbie Mainoo to be fouled 2+ times
Southampton’s return to Premier League life under Russell Martin has been a tumultuous one. Saints are sat on zero points after three games having lost to ten-man Newcastle as well as Nottingham Forest and Brentford, conceding 43 shots across those two games.
Opponents Man United have had their own struggles with Erik Ten Hag’s new high-energy press yielding just one victory. Therefore, the Saturday lunchtime kick off is an intriguing one with both sides looking to kickstart their season and it’s the player props markets that hold some value.
The first part of our Bet Builder is for teenage midfielder Kobbie Mainoo to be fouled two or more times. Fresh off a central role in Lee Carsley’s new look England, Mainoo has started the season in good form, getting on the ball as often as possible and looking to dictate play.
This increase in time on the ball has led to him drawing more attention from opposition midfielders and in turn has seen him draw seven fouls in just three games. This line landed against both Fulham and Brighton whilst Mainoo drew just one foul against Liverpool.
His direct opponent here will be Flynn Downes, who has committed six fouls across his three appearances this season, following on from averaging 1.49 fouls per 90 minutes last season. Midfield partners Will Smallbone and Joe Aribo are also no strangers to fouls, having committed eight fouls between them this season, so there are plenty of clumsy players to bring Mainoo down.
Noussair Mazraoui to be fouled 1+ times
Another United player who has been getting a kicking is Moroccan right back Noussair Mazraoui, drawing one foul in each game so far this season. This is generally in line with his career average of 0.7 fouls drawn per game for club and country, but again, it’s his direct opponent that makes this selection stand out.
Kyle Walker-Peters has been playing at left wing back rather than his usual right-sided role and has averaged one foul per game. He’s consistently good for a foul committed, as emphasised by his average of 0.78 fouls per game last season, where Saints were able to dominate most games in the Championship in terms of possession.
All three of Southampton’s opposing right backs have drawn at least one foul this season and Mazraoui looks a good bet to continue that trend.
Kyle Walker-Peters to have 1+ shots
Talking of Walker-Peters, I’m banking on him to be involved at both ends of the pitch and to have at least one shot. He’s no stranger to having a pop at goal and averages close to a shot a game across his career, but when playing on the left hand side, his productivity increases with him able to cut inside on to his favoured right foot.
So far this season, he’s managed six shots in total, with at least one in all three games and his shot maps demonstrate he’s happy to have a go from anywhere with three of his six shots coming from outside the box and five from open play.
Whilst United have tightened up at the back this season, they face a Southampton side who average fourteen shots per game so far and having averaged nearly sixteen per game at St Mary’s last season. They’ll be looking to attack their home games if they’re to have any chance of survival.
Joshua Zirkzee to commit 1+ fouls
The final call is for Dutch giant Joshua Zirkzee to commit a foul. The 6’4″ striker has made a bright start to his Old Trafford career and having scored the winner off the bench against Fulham on opening day, he was rewarded with a first start last time out against Liverpool.
In that game he was clearly eager to impress, and in looking to press Liverpool’s back four, he’d committed two clumsy fouls by the 22nd minute and was booked for one of them. If United are to get the win, their press will be key to unsettling Southampton’s patient build up, so we can expect Zirkzee to be busy again.
Strikers against Southampton have committed at least one foul in 12 of their last 14 games and, with Zirkzee averaging 0.9 fouls per game last season for Bologna, he looks a prime candidate for fouls. The caveat to this is with Rasmus Hojlund back in training, Zirkzee is definitely a sub risk, however, we can benefit from Paddy’s Super Sub offer as the bet carries over to Zirkzee’s replacement should he not make a foul before being hauled off.
With the Dane averaging 0.87 fouls per 90 minutes last season, we’re getting a nice extra bit of value, if he comes on for Zirkzee.
Southampton v Man United betting tips
Kobbie Mainoo to be fouled 2+ times
Noussair Mazraoui to be fouled 1+ times
Kyle Walker-Peters to have 1+ shots
Joshua Zirkzee to commit 1+ fouls
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 8/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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