Saturday footy acca tips
- All 3pm Saturday kick-offs
Charlton v Rotherham – Under 2.5 goals
Wrexham v Shrewsbury – Wrexham (-1)
Chesterfield v Grimsby– Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
Crewe v Morecambe– Under 2.5 goals
Notts County v Accrington Stanley– Notts County and both teams to score
- An acca with these bets pays at approximately 37/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Charlton v Rotherham – Under 2.5 goals
The most eye-catching game on Saturday’s League One card that didn’t fall due to international call-ups comes from The Valley where two promotion hopefuls go head-to-head. Charlton have certainly become much harder to beat under Nathan Jones but they are aiming to bounce back following a 2-0 loss to Reading last time out.
Rotherham recorded their maiden league win of the campaign when scoring late to defeat another expected promotion candidate in Huddersfield last weekend. Everything points towards this being a tight encounter, mainly for tactical reasons.
Millers boss Steve Evans may say his side will play to win this match, but deep down a draw wouldn’t be a bad outcome at all. The Addicks are actually unbeaten in home league action since Jones took charge, whilst Rotherham have a 100% losing away record this season.
Therefore, a point on the board at a tough venue like The Valley would be more favourable in the eyes of the visitors. With that being the case, Charlton, who are strong defensively themselves, may have to be patient.
Charlton have the best Expected Goals Against figure in League One and keeping three out of four clean sheets further proves their defensive prowess. They play a counter attacking style, proved by the fact only three other teams in the league have a smaller average ball possession.
This in turn means Rotherham, as the away side, will also have to be patient in trying to get goalscoring chances of their own. A 0-0 couldn’t be confidently ruled out here, such is the likely tactical game that is set to play out.
Wrexham v Shrewsbury – Wrexham (-1)
Wrexham have taken to life in League One like a duck to water and already they are showing why there is every chance a third consecutive promotion cannot be ruled out. One more, home advantage is clearly going to remain a huge advantage to them, just as has been the case for the last few seasons at lower levels.
It is back-to-back victories at STōK Cae Ras, scoring three goals on each occasion, too. Recent away assignments at Bolton and Peterborough returned four points and two clean sheets, which is more than enough to prove them mean business in League One.
Shrewsbury may have got a win last time out against Leyton Orient at home but they face the severest of tests when travelling to Wales on Saturday. They’ve suffered two losses to nil in both away fixtures this season and given they only scored an average of roughly 0.70 away league goals per game last season, it shows something of an inferiority complex on their travels.
Wrexham are in high spirits after winning their last two matches, both by at least a two-goal margin. This was also the case in 11 of their 17 home league wins from last season, which further enhances their home dominance status.
A team averaging 2.00 goals in all competitions facing one with the third-worst Expected Goals return in the league suggests a rather comfortable Wrexham success may well be on the cards.
Chesterfield v Grimsby: – BTTS and over 2.5 goals
It has been a decent but not a spectacular start to life at a higher level for Chesterfield, who were amongst the pre-season favourites to secure a second consecutive promotion. Of course there is no panic or necessarily any real unhappiness given it is early days, but manager Paul Cook will be looking for them to kick on now the transfer window has closed.
A home encounter with Grimsby presents an opportunity for them to complete a Lincolnshire double having beat League One Lincoln City in the EFL Trophy on Tuesday. It is two wins and two losses for Grimsby four league games in, with both victories coming at home, so they now need to prove themselves on the road.
That will be easier said than done given how much of a fortress SMH Group Stadium is to The Spireites. Since the start of last season, they’ve suffered only one defeat here, which came towards the end of the previous campaign when they had already confirmed the National League title.
They’ve had two draws here in league action this season, which again reflects the improved quality of opponent they now come up against. They’re ranked sixth in the division on Expected Goals and Chesterfield will expect to score again considering they’ve netted in every single home match since a 1-0 loss to Oldham in February 2023.
Defensively, Cook’s side have been excellent this season and that is reflected in their Expected Goals Against figure. However, it will be hurting them not to have won at home yet, plus even last season when dominating their division there was only one other team to have had more matches involve both teams scoring.
Also, Grimsby’s matches this season in the league have been averaging 3.50 goals, and a big reason is because of their style of play, which is similar to that of Chesterfield. Both teams like to get the ball down and play, and given it is often high risk, it can lead to rather cheap turnovers, which always raises the prospect of both teams scoring and also goals in general.
Crewe v Morecambe – Under 2.5 goals
Things can surely only get better for Morecambe. Four games into the new League One season and four 1-0 defeats leaves them rooted to the bottom of the standings.
They are one of only two clubs in the entire EFL yet to claim a point this season. However, the midweek cup victory over Wigan could see them have more of a spring in their step this weekend, but points are what they are after.
A trip to last year’s losing play-off finalists Crewe presents a tough challenge, however they only have one league triumph to their name so far. Therefore, neither club have begun as they’d have wanted, so some nerves could be on show.
Crewe were heavily beaten at Blackpool in the EFL Trophy on Tuesday, which can happen given the amount of changes teams make in this competition, so they won’t let that bother them too much. They did inflict defeat on Bromley when last in league action, a match they was losing until the 83rd minute, so they will be hopeful of further improvement to come.
The stark reality is that this contest puts together two teams really struggling for goals; Morecambe with zero and Crewe only two in the league so far. This could turn out to be a bit of a slog.
Backing against goals does appear to be the safest way to approach this particular game. This is a bottom-five clash based upon League Two Expected Goals, meaning creating decent goal-scoring opportunities has not come easily for either club.
There is pressure on them both for different reasons; Crewe given they face a winless opponent and for Morecambe because they are winless. This is not likely to be a good watch necessarily and just scrapping out a result is the priority here.
Notts County v Accrington Stanley – Notts & BTTS
Notts County go in search of a third consecutive victory when they welcome Accrington Stanley to Meadow Lane on Saturday. The visitors are still searching for their opening win of the season in league or cup, meaning the pressure is starting to ramp up.
One common trend that is continuing for County is the number of goals in their games. A team with individual quality such as Dan Crowley, Alessana Jatta, Jodi Jones and David McGoldrick should have no issues scoring goals, but they kind of have to be given they aren’t so reliable in keeping clean sheets.
They are on a four-match run in all competitions of games ending with both teams scoring. Whilst the match presents an in-form team against an out-of-sorts one, some may suggest this should be a routine victory for Notts County.
Whilst that may end up being the case, it is worth noting that Accrington actually have accumulated a higher Expected Goals amount in league action compared to their weekend opponents, despite having six points fewer. The clear and obvious difference however comes defensively, as although Stanley also have a better Expected Goals Against figure in comparison, they have shipped 11 goals so far.
Conceding an average of 2.75 goals simply is not good enough, although they may argue they have been somewhat unfortunate in that regard. Nevertheless, when conceding goals becomes a habit then it is hard to build a strong case on that particular team.
Notts County are averaging 2.00 goals per League Two game this season, but the fact they’re conceding an average of 1.75 goals over their previous four in all competitions means they will likely have to outscore Accrington if they’re to win, and they should do at home.
EFL betting tips
- All 3pm Saturday kick-offs
Charlton v Rotherham – Under 2.5 goals
Wrexham v Shrewsbury – Wrexham (-1)
Chesterfield v Grimsby– Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
Crewe v Morecambe– Under 2.5 goals
Notts County v Accrington Stanley– Notts County and both teams to score
- An acca with these bets pays at approximately 37/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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