Premier League Tips: Paddy’s epic trader Cheat Sheet for the new season

This one is completely dependent on the result of Man City’s hearing in Autumn, but assuming there is no points deduction this season, I can see this being a very close race again between them and Arsenal.

The Gunners finished with 16 wins from their last 18 last season and suggests they will push City all the way again. With that potential deduction looming over City, I’d rather be backing ARSENAL at the prices.

I think this is the year for Arsenal. They have come very close two years in a row. The third time’s the charm they say. Arsenal were on top of all the attacking and defending statistics with the most goals scored and least conceded to name a few.

Hopefully with the addition of a few more players they can come out on top this season and with the possibility of Man City’s possible points deduction, it could be ARSENAL’s year.

Arsenal have given everything the last two seasons and still have not managed to finish on top. They even celebrated a draw at the Etihad in a match where a win would arguably have made them champions-elect. They will fall short again.

There’s uncertainties about how Liverpool and Chelsea will fair and United need more time. MAN CITY are a cracking bet.

This looks to be a two-way market with Man City the rightful favourite. However, they’ve sold Julian Alvarez with no obvious replacement on the way, and will be relying on Savinho and Oscar Bobb to fill in. That is a clear drop-off in quality, especially compared to World Cup-winning Alvarez. We also have the issue of 115 charges being looked at this year which is a complete curveball when analysing this market.

In terms of Arsenal’s squad, they have strengthened with Riccardo Calafiori and his ability to play across the back line and pass out well. Along with Jurrien Timber’s recovery, they look set to be hard to beat again. The Gunners had the best defensive record last season, and I expect that to be the same this year. The only question mark is their mental fragility as they seem to have failed to capitalise on winning positions in the last two seasons, but I’m siding with ARSENAL to get the job done.

Assuming MAN CITY wrap up the 115 charges against them with their legal team for another season and face no points deduction, I would pick them to win their fifth Premier League title in a row.

I expect Arsenal to keep it interesting again – they scored 18 goals from set pieces last season (most in the league) but I think this will be hard to replicate as the other teams will be more aware of their threat from set pieces.

With Erling Haaland odds-on for the second consecutive season, DOMINIC SOLANKE and JEAN-PHILLIPE MATETA would be the two I’d be having a look at in this market.

With his move to Spurs complete, Solanke should give you a very decent each-way run in this market. He scored 19 league goals last season, and with Spurs having the 3^rd highest xG from open play, I’d expect him to get far more chances in front of goal this season.

Mateta finished with 16 goals, 13 of which came after the arrival of Oliver Glasner in February. If we view that period only, he was the top goalscorer in the league, and had a very successful Olympics, bagging five.

OLLIE WATKINS is a good price. He had the best season of his career last season with 19 league goals. He finished fourth in the standings but with Aston Villa only getting better and with the addition of a few good players he could go even better than last season’s tally.

An outsider is KAI HAVERTZ and he is a very appealing price also. It took him a while to get going last year but he finished with 13 Premier League goals in his first season with Arsenal. If he continues playing that striker role under Mikael Arteta, I think he could bag plenty.

ALEXANDER ISAK is a natural goalscorer. He is on pens, and provided Anthony Gordon stays, he has class around him to supply assists, with Bruno Guimaraes and Harvey Barnes chipping in too. A cracking each-way bet in a lopsided market with Erling Haaland.

With the goal tally (19) DOMINIC SOLANKE accumulated at a high-pressing Bournemouth (similar style to Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs) he can match that if not better it. I would like to see him take pens but that looks likely to remain with Heung-Min Son. Nonetheless, he is also a great each-way bet.

This is a difficult market considering Erling Haaland’s price and pedigree, so we’re looking for someone to get around 18-20 goals and bag us an each-way place at the very least.

Judging by last year, we can’t look past JEAN-PHILLIPE MATETA. After Roy Hodgson left in February, Mateta scored 15 league goals, an unbelievable run of form. He also scored five in the Olympics showing us he has no intention of slowing down!

DOMINIC SOLANKE scored 19 goals in the Premier League last season for Bournemouth and has now secured a move to Spurs which will provide him with even more chances. Although we would expect Son to still be on penalty duty, only four of Solanke’s 19 goals were from the penalty spot.

Erling Haaland is rightfully the favourite to retain the Golden Boot but he won’t play every game given Man City’s busy fixture schedule.

I see Man City and Arsenal as certainties in this market (assuming no major points deduction for the former). But outside of that, it feels like a bit of a free-for-all, where any team outside of those two may struggle for big points tallies this season.

For that reason, I’d have a look at a bigger price in WEST HAM. The squad has buckets of talent in it, and with their activity in the market and the experience of Julen Lopetegui at the helm, there is the feeling they could push for a big season.

Big Ange showed glimpses of how good TOTTENHAM can be last season. They weren’t a million miles off competing for the Top Four and they had a lot of injuries to key players with their squad depth was tested.

I think if they get some good players in and can keep them fit, they have a good shot.

NEWCASTLE spent a large period of last season with barely enough players fit to field a starting XI yet they finished seventh having contested in Europe also.

If they remain injury-free and have Nick Pope, Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak fit for large periods they will give their fans a lot to cheer about and can nick the fourth spot.

A case can be made for and against any of the top teams in this market, but we can assume that Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool will make up the top 3. For fourth place, I have to go with TOTTENHAM.

They were only two points off fourth last season and with Villa having a busier schedule, I’d expect them to drop a few more points this season.

Then we have Chelsea with their new manager and style of play and that will take time to bed in, especially looking at their poor pre-season performances and results. Other than that, we have Man Utd and Newcastle and neither can be backed with any confidence.

The top four seems more achievable for most clubs at the start of this campaign as Jurgen Klopp has left Liverpool and Aston Villa have Champions League fixtures to contend with.

It’s hard not to like Ange at TOTTENHAM, he seems to have good buy-in from the players and fans and I think they will score plenty of goals this season.

Again, I’m going for a big price here which may surprise most, but BRIGHTON look far too big a price for me in this market. They’ve been a breath of fresh air to the Premier League since joining, playing with freedom and selling on their bargain finds for astronomical figures.

I have always felt selling their best players would catch up with them, and with the season falling apart somewhat in the second half last season, losing Pascal Gross along with their biggest asset of Roberto De Zerbi being replaced by 31-year-old Fabian Hurzeler with only one senior club job on his CV, I feel this season will be a bigger struggle than most are expecting.

In recent times it seems to be the promoted team from the following season going back down.

BRENTFORD have been great to watch in the Premier League, but last season they were largely poor and had Ivan Toney missing for the majority.

He’s rumoured to be leaving before the window closes and they could be in big trouble if he does. They have a small squad and if they get a few injuries to key players could easily be relegated.

Dominic Solanke’s departure makes BOURNEMOUTH a serious bet in my opinion. Take away his goals and they are going to struggle. They might be able to stay up finishing 16^th or 15^th but the price is far too big.

Similarly BRENTFORD should they lose Ivan Toney will struggle and there is also talk of Bryan Mbeumo leaving too which would weaken an already-thin squad. Both teams do not have huge resources and their prices look too big.

While there’s no doubt IPSWICH were mightily impressive last year, it looks like their squad won’t be strong enough to stay up. They’ve spent around £75m already but on untested youth rather than experience.

While Omari Hutchison, Liam Delap and Jacob Greaves have potential, this season might be a year too early. If Ipswich play similarly to how they did last year in the Championship then I can see them being an updated version of Vincent Kompany’s Burnley, some bright attacking play but not solid enough defensively.

It seems to be getting harder and harder for the promoted sides to stay in the Premier League and at the time of writing I don’t think SOUTHAMPTON have done enough in the transfer market. They need an experienced striker to give themselves a fighting chance.

CRYSTAL PALACE won seven of their 13 games under Oliver Glasner, the fifth highest in the league since his arrival. Losing Michael Olise is damaging, but I still see them as capable of finishing inside the top half under Glasner.

Finishing with the highest xA last season and adding a clinical striker to the front line, HEUNG-MIN SON is worth a go in the top assist market.

WEST HAM have been making big moves in the transfer window bringing in some exciting attacking and defensive players on top of their already decent squad. With them not in Europe this season and the appointment of Julen Lopetegui I think the Hammers could crack the top six.

FULHAM are great to watch under Marco Silva. This is their third season in the Premier League since being relegated back in the 20/21 season. In their first season back, they finished 10^th and last season missed out on the top half by two points. There’s been a few nice additions to the squad notably Emile Smith-Rowe and I think a top-half finish is a great bet.

WEST HAM have arguably done the best business of the transfer window and there’s not much else to say but that they look VERY good for a top-half finish.

Under new manager Julen Lopetegui expect WEST HAM to play a much more expansive game this year, especially compared to the much-maligned (perhaps unfairly) David Moyes. Judging by Lopetegui’s previous seasons in charge of Porto, Sevilla and Wolves, they will play an attacking passing game that West Ham fans have been crying out for and with it, a possible improvement in league position.

Last year Moyes’ team finished ninth despite injuries, poor league form and a long European season reaching the Europa League quarter-final. Without Europe this year, and with great signings in Niclas Fullkrug, Crysencio Summerville, Max Kilman and Jean-Clair Todibo they look set to improve on that position from last year.

Phil Foden is still only 24 years old. He should be coming into his prime years soon which is a frightening prospect for the rest of the Premier League.

The 2023/2024 Player of the Season will be looking to continue his fine form this campaign back in a more central position behind Erling Haaland after a frustrating Euros playing out wide on the left.

With Kevin de Bruyne now aged 33 his minutes will be managed so I think PHIL FODEN in the most assists market is great value here.