Spain v England tips: Andrew Beasley’s Super Sub selections for the Euro 2024 final

Our footie tipster Andrew Beasley fancies Alvaro Morata to stop it coming home on Sunday.

By / Euros, Football Tips / 6 months ago

Spain v England tips

ANDREW BEASLEY’S FOUR MAIN SUPER SUB SELECTIONS

Harry Kane to Score
Dani Olmo To Have 1 or More Shots On Target
Lamine Yamal To Score Or Assis
Alvaro Morata To Be Shown a Card

It’s coming home, it’s coming home, it’s coming. Football’s coming home! Unless, as Spanish comedian Ignacio Lopez noted, it’s retiring in Spain like most English people.

Paddy Power is on Lopez’s side, with Spain strong favourites to win the final. They have better statistics than England and have accumulated them when facing harder teams to boot.

But who are going to be the key players? Here are some player prop bet suggestions, with a best selection in each market for the match and an alternate choice if you’d rather place a wager on the other side.

Sunday 8pm: Spain v England
Euro 2024 final match, Berlin
TV: BBC1/ITV1 and RTE 2

Every bet here is eligible for Paddy Power’s Super Sub offer, whereby your bet is passed on to the substitute who replaces your chosen player if he goes off.

For example, Cole Palmer replaced Phil Foden against the Netherlands and then laid on the assist for THAT Ollie Watkins goal. So, anyone who backed Foden to score or assist, or just have an assist, saw that bet land due to the Chelsea man’s exquisite pass. Now that’s team-work!

Still not sure what we’re rattling on about? Well, it’s all laid out in great detail in this Super Sub explained article.

Anyway… to the final!

Player to Score: Harry Kane

Gareth Southgate’s side are having such a strange tournament, with Kane central to that. The England captain doesn’t look fit, has dropped so deep his average position is in the centre circle and is also the joint-top scorer at Euro 2024.

The issue for Southgate and bettors alike is that it’s hard to make a case that anyone else will score for the underdogs here. Over 40 per cent of England’s non-penalty expected goals have fallen to Kane, the third-highest proportion of any player for any country at the tournament. We’ve seen magical moments from the likes of Jude Bellingham and Watkins but only the Bayern Munich man is regularly getting chances, so back Kane to score.

SPAIN CHOICE: ALVARO MORATA

The opportunities have been spread far more widely among Spain’s squad. One of their leading men has been Alvaro Morata, who flopped in English football. He’d love to score on Sunday, and with nine shots since his last goal at the tournament, he easily could here.

Player To Have 1 or More Shots On Target: Dani Olmo

Dani Olmo is a risky choice here as he has only started two of Spain’s six games. Can Luis de la Fuente leave him out after he scored the winner in the semi-final, though?

He shouldn’t. Despite a relative lack of playing time, Olmo has had six shots on target, the most for anyone from either side and sixth most of any player at Euro 2024. It may be wise to see if he makes the starting XI before placing a bet, but the RB Leipzig man will at the very least be a Super Sub asset from the bench.

ENGLAND CHOICE: PHIL FODEN

Phil Foden looks like the best-value England option here. Kane is the only member of Southgate’s squad with more shots on target, with the Manchester City attacker topping the shot count against the Netherlands with three.

 

To Score Or Assist: Lamine Yamal

Lamine Yamal is a ridiculously talented youngster. He was only about a year old when Spain won Euro 2008, while teammate Jesus Navas had already won the Europa League twice by the time Yamal was born.

He looks like a fantastic value selection in the ‘score or assist’ market. Regarding the latter half of the equation, the 17-year-old has amassed the most expected assists of any player at Euro 2024 and has set up the joint-most goals.

But he can potentially score too, as he displayed in stunning style against France last time out. Yamal is Spain’s top man for expected goals and shots, with only Kane matching him for those metrics. He should still have a paper round yet the Barcelona youngster could easily decide this final.

ENGLAND CHOICE: PHIL FODEN

For England, Foden has finally started to look like his old self. He had the Three Lions’ best non-penalty chance on Wednesday night, later hitting the woodwork. Foden looks like a good choice to score or assist as only Kieran Trippier has generated more expected assists.

Player Shown a Card: Alvaro Morata

Card bets are always risky in finals as referees can be reluctant to be seen to be spoiling a showpiece occasion. Our key man here is Francois Letexier. He has averaged 3.7 yellow cards per game across his career, 3.3 in three matches at Euro 2024, and issued three this season in the finals of the UEFA Super Cup and French FA Cup.

It may be a coincidence but in every one of those games he booked at least one forward. This summer, Letexier’s notebook includes the names of Jonas Wind, Aleksandar Mitrovic and Alvaro Morata.

The latter has committed the joint-most fouls of any player at Euro 2024, being penalised at least twice in all five matches he has started, so he looks a good bet for a yellow card in the final.

ENGLAND CHOICE: JUDE BELLINGHAM

Jude Bellingham does too. He’s already been booked twice this summer, and no England player has committed more fouls. With Spain likely to edge possession, Bellingham will need to battle hard, so could easily get booked for his trouble.

Spain v England prediction

ANDREW BEASLEY’S SUPER SUB SELECTIONS

PLAYER TO SCORE OPTIONS: Harry Kane or Alvaro Morata
PLAYER TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET: Dani Olmo or Phil Foden 
PLAYER TO SCORE OR ASSIST: Lamine Yamal or Phil Foden
PLAYER TO BE SHOWN A CARD: Alvaro Morata or Jude Bellingham

All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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