Netherlands v England Bet Builder Tips
Memphis Depay to Score
Cody Gakpo to have 1 or more Shots on Target
Kieran Trippier to Assist
Denzel Dumfries to be Shown a Card
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 141/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Wednesday 8pm: Netherlands v England
Euro 2024 semi-final match, Dortmund
TV: ITV1 and RTE 2
He can’t keep getting away with it. Jesse Pinkman took a keener interest in England at Euro 2024 than we can have ever imagined.
Gareth Southgate leads a charmed life. Charmed to be managing the most valuable squad in world football, charmed to be getting away with sub-par performance after sub-par performance. He’s also lucky that five minutes of semi-coherent pressing against Switzerland can leave the BBC pundits drooling over the otherwise usual dross from his England side.
Anyway, they’ve somehow made it to the European Championship semi-final, where they will face the Netherlands. We’ll mostly be focussing on that match here, but there will be some suggestions for the first tie between Spain and France too. All the tips listed can be combined in a Bet Builder if you’re feeling lucky too.
And remember, every selection here is part of Paddy Power’s Super Sub offer. If the man you back is substituted, their replacement then carries your bet, as well as the hopes of their nation. No pressure, lads.
Here are five player prop selections for the match. They all come under Paddy Power’s Super Sub offer, so if the player you back is substituted, their replacement then carries your bet.
Memphis Depay to Score
Picking an England goal scorer is an impossible task. Almost half of the team’s meagre expected goal total has fallen to Harry Kane, but he hasn’t looked fit enough to do much with it a lot of the time.
Southgate has also benefited from Bukayo Saka converting his only shot on target and Jude Bellingham casually dropping a 95th-minute overhead kick on Slovakia’s ass.
The latter is England’s second top player for xG behind Kane, yet Memphis Depay, Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen and Tijjani ‘the red nose’ Reijnders have all had more than Bellingham.
Memphis looks like the best value selection from that quartet. He has had at least two shots in every match at the tournament, an average of 3.4, and has one goal from two expected. Depay also plays centrally, just as Switzerland’s scorer Breel Embolo did against England.
In the other match, look at Antoine Griezmann and Kylian Mbappe. Both men have amassed 1.9 xG without scoring at Euro 2024, but it might take some Mbappe magic to break down a very decent Spanish backline. The new Real Madrid forward has also had the second most shots at the tournament, so a goal must be coming soon.
Cody Gakpo To Have 1 or More Shots On Target
There is something about international tournaments which brings the best out of Cody Gakpo. The lower standard of football, probably.
He scored in three matches at the 2022 World Cup and has repeated that trick here. More importantly from our perspective, Gakpo has had the most shots on target of any player left in the competition – joint-third most overall – and has had at least one in all five Netherlands matches.
England don’t even have a player with five shots on target, much less the Liverpool forward’s tally of eight. With the Dutch having had a harder schedule than England, according to the FIFA rankings, Gakpo looks great value in this market.
On Tuesday night, the value man is Fabian Ruiz. He didn’t have an effort on target last time out but had at least one in his preceding three appearances. That’s enough to make him Spain’s joint-top player for shots on target.
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Kieran Trippier to Assist
While Luke Shaw made his long-awaited return in the Switzerland match, he hasn’t completed more than 45 minutes for five months. He may be useful from a Super Sub perspective, but Southgate’s caution should see Kieran Trippier start this match.
In a very low-quality field, he has been England’s most creative player at Euro 2024. It says everything for the dryness of the Three Lions’ attack that Trippier has set up at least three chances more than any other England player and still only comes in at joint-15th in the tournament standings.
He may have an edge against the Dutch though. They have looked weak from set plays, conceding to Poland and Turkey in that manner. With Trippier on corners, he could collect an assist thanks to Netherlands’ weakness rather than England’s strength.
Spain are the likelier winners in semi-final one, so consider backing Lamine Yamal to register his fourth assist of the tournament. While he has overachieved against his underlying numbers, the 16-year-old has recorded the joint-most expected assists of any player.
Denzel Dumfries to be shown a Card
We should be guaranteed a few cards in the second semi-final. Referee Feliz Zwayer has brandished at least four in his three other games at Euro 2024. This includes Netherlands’ 3-0 win over Romania, in which he booked Denzel Dumfries and Malen.
There are some interesting candidates. Virgil van Dijk leads the Dutch squad for fouls at Euro 2024, while Xavi Simons received the most cards of any Netherlands player in Europe’s top five leagues this season.
But Dumfries looks like the best selection. The opposition starting right (wing) back has been carded in three of England’s last four matches. Their left side has been largely impotent but with teams happy to let them have the ball there, fouls and therefore cards in that area are inevitable.
I’d be looking at Theo Hernandez in the first semi-final. Among players in the French squad, he received the most bookings in the big leagues in 2023/24, and he will be up against livewire winger Yamal, assuming the match is not past his bedtime.
Netherlands v England Bet Builder Tips
Memphis Depay to Score
Cody Gakpo to have 1 or more Shots on Target
Kieran Trippier to Assist
Denzel Dumfries to be Shown a Card
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 141/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
READ MORE
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