Spain v Germany Betting Tips
Germany +1 (Handicap Betting)
Jamal Musiala to have 1 or more Shots on Target
Marc Cucurella to commit 1 or more Fouls
Spain Goalkeeper to make 3+ Saves
Spain to commit 12+ Fouls
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Friday, July 5: 17:00 – Spain v Germany
Euro 2024 Quarter-Final match – Stuttgart
TV: ITV1/RTE2
Germany +1
Germany have strung together a series of impressive results under Julian Nagelsmann and should be backed to at least take this game to extra-time.
Weaker versions of Die Mannschaft have frustrated Spain in recent times, after all. Three of the last four matches between these nations have finished as 1-1 draws. Nagelsmann, meanwhile, has this team purring as they have gone undefeated in eight, winning six.
Spain may have won all four matches to date, but they have arguably not faced such an impressive team. Croatia, though eliminated in the group, were arguably their toughest rivals, and even if their game finished 3-0 in La Roja’s favour, they were outdone in terms of xG by their opponents on that occasion. Don’t expect Germany to be so profligate.
Jamal Musiala to have 1 or more Shots on Target
Jamal Musiala has starred for Germany at Euro 2024, scoring three times in four matches for his country.
He has blossomed at the international level under Nagelsmann and is playing with a good deal of confidence. The Bayern Munich man has scored three goals, and though these efforts have come from just 0.9 xG, his success with relatively low-quality chances should encourage him to try his luck some more against Spain.
Musiala has 1.21 shots on target per 90 at the Euros, and such is the faith that Nagelsmann has in the winger, he is likely to play much of the game if it is tight.
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Marc Cucurella to Commit 1 or more Fouls
Chelsea defender Marc Cucurella will receive his toughest test to date in Euro 2024 when he potentially faces up against Musiala.
The Germany winger has won nine fouls across his four appearances, picking up two fouls in three of his four outings to date, including a personal tournament-high of four against Denmark last time out.
Cucurella is set to have his hands full. He may only have given up four fouls in the competition to date, but this translates to 1.48 per 90 minutes. Indeed, he has given away at least one free kick in each of the three games he has played.
Against a slippery opponent like Musiala, this is likely to continue.
Spain Goalkeeper to make 3+ saves
Unai Simon is likely to be the man in Spain’s goal for Friday’s game, and the Athletic Bilbao keeper is likely to find himself heavily involved.
Germany, after all, ranks second for shots on target in the tournament, with only Spain clear of them. The host nation have mustered 27 in total (excluding penalties) at an average of 6.75 per game.
Nagelsmann’s side have tended to try their luck from distance, with their non-penalty xG per shot a relatively small 0.09.
These are the types of effort that Simon should cope with comfortably; he has a save percentage of 83.3 and boasts +2.5 goals prevented (xGOT faced – goals conceded), meaning that he is keeping out more than expected.
Spain to commit 12+ fouls
Spain may be a classy side in possession, but at least some of their defensive solidity has been based around a ruthlessness out of it. With 57 fouls committed, only Austria have committed more sins than Luis de la Fuente’s side
Their last-16 match against Georgia saw them post a team tournament low of 11 fouls, but as they controlled 75% of the ball in that game, they were rarely under the type of defensive pressure that leads to giving free kicks away.
They will come under more scrutiny against Germany, a side that has become increasingly adept at winning fouls as the Euros have worn on. They were fouled 13 times against Switzerland in their final group match and on 14 occasions against Denmark in the last 16.
Spain v Germany Bet Builder Tips
Germany +1
Jamal Musiala to have 1 or more Shots on Target
Marc Cucurella to Commit 1 or more Fouls
Spain Goalkeeper to make 3+ saves
Spain to commit 12+ fouls
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 8/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
FRIDAY’S EURO 2024 BETTING TIPS
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