England v Slovenia Betting Tips
Harry Kane to Score
Bukayo Saka to Have 1+ Shots on Target
Adam Gnezda Cerin to be Shown a Card
Jaka Bijol to Commit 1 or More Fouls
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 18/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Tuesday 8pm: England v Slovenia
Euro 2024 Group C match at the RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
TV: ITV and RTE
International football is a tough racket. Teams play so few matches that truly matter that if they perform badly when they do, all hell breaks loose.
England are ranked fifth in the world and were heavily criticised for drawing 1-1 with the 21st best side, Denmark. If Tottenham draw with Leicester next season, it’s basically the same thing (in English football terms, obviously, not in a global sense).
While that is fair comment, dear lord, Gareth Southgate’s side were abysmal for much of the clash with the Danes. England’s attack is dysfunctional – only Scotland generated fewer expected goals in their first two matches at Euro 2024 – while the midfield and defence invite too much pressure.
They will surely be fine against Slovenia, a nation against whom they have five wins and a draw from six past matches. But who is going to be the Three Lions’ hero, sparking their flagging tournament into life?
Here are our four best player prop bets which come under Paddy Power’s Super Sub offer, meaning that if your selected player is substituted, the person who replaces them then carries your bet.
Harry Kane to Score
The last time these teams met, Harry Kane scored just his 11th international goal. He netted in stoppage time to secure a 1-0 win in 2017 which confirmed England’s place at the World Cup in Russia.
Kane and Kyle Walker started that game and will do so again here. But Southgate must surely shuffle the starting XI after using the same line up to disappointing effect in the opening two games. The problem is that the manager rolled the dice with his squad for this tournament and appears to have got snake eyes for his trouble.
England have bagged just eight goals since the last World Cup where the assist provider and the goal scorer are both in the Euro 2024 squad. Southgate could turn to Jarrod Bowen or Eberechi Eze or Anthony Gordon or Ivan Toney or Cole Palmer but none of them have scored a non-penalty goal or set one up for England. It doesn’t mean they can’t but there’s no history to build upon.
As such, we’ll pick Kane here. He was replaced by Ollie Watkins in the second half against Denmark and the Aston Villa man does at least have three international goals so can keep the bet alive.
Bukayo Saka to Have 1+ Shots on Target
It’s a similar sorry tale for shots on target, at least in terms of the qualification matches for Euro 2024, for which data is available.
Fifteen men recorded at least one across the eight games, but seven of those players aren’t in the squad in Germany. Kane, with 11, led the way and is again the obvious choice. It’s a bit boring if we keep selecting him every time though.
Let’s take Bukayo Saka instead. He’s let us down on this front in the last two games, but he was the second top England player for shots on target in qualifying.
Saka also leads the team at Euro 2024 for both shots and touches in the opposition penalty box. An effort on target is coming, I can feel it.
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Adam Gnezda Cerin to be Shown a Card
Slovenia midfielder Adam Gnezda Cerin must have a face which appeals to referees. He has pulled off some kind of magic trick by not being booked yet at Euro 2024.
He was penalised for five fouls in the opening game against Denmark, then added another four to his tally in the second match versus Serbia. In the whole of the 2023/24 Premier League there were only 19 players who had at least two games in which they committed more than three fouls without being booked, yet Gnezda Cerin has matched that in the last 10 days.
His luck must surely evaporate here. Gnezda Cerin will likely have to pick up some combination of Kane, Jude Bellingham and Conor Gallagher, England’s three most fouled players in the opening two matches. If he escapes a card again there will need to be a government inquiry.
Jaka Bijol to Commit 1 or More Fouls
There are two other Slovenians who committed at least one foul in both of their first two games in Germany: the central defensive partnership of Jaka Bijol and Vanja Drkusic.
The former has a bigger sample of international matches for us to assess, but the latter has committed fouls more regularly in his lesser playing time for Slovenia. If we look at who had more club matches in which they gave away a free-kick this season, Bijol leads by 17 to 15, so let’s take him for our final wager.
England v Slovenia Bet Builder Tips
Harry Kane to Score
Bukayo Saka to Have 1+ Shots on Target
Adam Gnezda Cerin to be Shown a Card
Jaka Bijol to Commit 1 or More Fouls
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 18/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
READ MORE
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- Crouchy expecting a big performance in this 11/1 punt for his England v Slovenia Betting Tips
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