Croatia v Italy Bet Builder Tips
Croatia to commit 12+ Fouls
Croatia to receive the most Cards
Italy Goalkeeper to make 3+ Saves
Over 2.5 Corners for Croatia
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Monday 8pm: Croatia v Italy
Euro 2024 Group B match at the Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
TV: BBC and RTE
CROATIA TO COMMIT 12 OR MORE FOULS
Croatia have averaged 11 fouls per game across the past two seasons in International football. They committed 15 fouls against Albania and 13 against Spain in their two Euros games so far, interestingly, Italy only drew 7 fouls against Albania but 16 against the Spanish.
Croatia have only failed to register less than 12 fouls in a game on two occasions in their last ten games, which makes this pick look even more appealing. Italy will want to win the game but could still progress into the knockout phase with a point, while Croatia absolutely have to win.
I can see Italy frustrating them with good technical play in forward areas and trying to strangle the game by drawing fouls.
CROATIA TO RECEIVE THE MOST CARDS
From a statistical perspective, Italy received an average of 1.6 cards per game from a 10 game sample, compared to Croatia’s 1.1. In the two Euros games so far, Croatia have received less bookings than their opponents, however, the game state is very much the reason for this selection, as the odds lines presume that a familiar pattern will play out in this game.
I expect a reasonably high card count but the onus is on Croatia to attack. We’ve seen how Albania and Spain have both exposed Croatian defending so far and I can envisage the Croatians having to resort to some last ditch cynical fouling to keep their hopes alive against a direct Italian front line.
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ITALY GOALKEEPER TO MAKE 3 OR MORE SAVES
Gianluigi Donarruma was in outstanding form against Spain, having to make 8 saves to keep Italy in the match with his heroics, while in Spain’s first match, Unai Simon had to make 5 saves to keep Croatia at bay.
In a warm-up friendly against Portugal just before the tournament, Portuguese goalkeeper Diogo Costa also had to make 5 saves and conceded 2 goals in an impressive Croatian performance. This shows that they will create chances against an Italian side who don’t possess the vintage defensive pairings of the days of old, and the numbers indicate a promising narrative for this leg of our builder.
OVER 2.5 CORNERS FOR CROATIA
Croatia hit 7 corners in their last warm up game against Portugal but managed just 3 against Albania. Over a 10 game period, Italy have conceded an average of 3.2 corners per game and have conceded 3 or more corners in 8 of those games, it’s a likely occurrence given the narrative around this game and the must win scenario that Croatia find themselves in.
We can expect a combination of frequent shots at the Italy goal, the Italian goalkeeper being forced into saves and Italy trying to force the Croatians wide to nullify Modric, Kovacic and Brozovic’s threat in central areas.
All in all, a likely winner that is somewhat correlated to the other selections in the builder.
Croatia v Italy Bet Builder Tips
Croatia to commit 12+ Fouls
Croatia to receive the most Cards
Italy Goalkeeper to make 3+ Saves
Over 2.5 Corners for Croatia
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 10/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
READ MORE
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