Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid Bet Builder Tips
Vinicius Junior to Score
Rodrygo to have 1 or more Shots on Target
Karim Adeyemi to Commit 1 or more Fouls
Niclas Fullkrug to be Fouled 1 or more Times
Emre Can to be Shown a Card
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All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
Champions League Final at Wembley, London
TV: TNT Sports, Saturday, 8pm
The 2024 Champions League Final pits together the winners from 1997 and 1998. The problem for the former, Borussia Dortmund, is that they’ve only been to the final once since, whereas Real Madrid have won it seven times in the last quarter century.
The 1998 semi-finals provided the first meeting of these teams and they’ve clashed 14 times over the years. Dortmund won just three of those matches and Jurgen Klopp was their manager for all of them. If they can manage to get him off Instagram, maybe he could get substituted in?
Madrid are predictably hot favourites to win at Wembley on Saturday. With the result looking a foregone conclusion, we’ll be picking some player bets. And don’t forget Paddy Power’s Super Sub offer in certain markets, if the player you select is substituted, the one who comes off the bench then carries your bet.
Vinicius Junior to Score
If you need evidence of Real’s voodoo hold on this competition, it was Stoke and Newcastle flop Joselu scoring a brace from the 88th minute onwards to save their semi-final against Bayern Munich He’s the favourite in the anytime goalscorer market but Vinicius Junior has the stronger pedigree and better recent form, so makes for a much better selection.
Liverpool fans won’t need reminding that the Brazilian scored the winner in the 2022 final when Madrid were outplayed by the Reds. He’s also joint-fourth on Real’s Champions League goal scorer chart, and he won’t be outshone by Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema or Raul this weekend. Vinicius scored eight goals in his last 10 league games, the third most in La Liga in that period, so looks a very solid pick here.
Rodrygo to have 1 or more Shots on Target
It won’t surprise you to learn that Kylian Mbappe has had the most shots on target in the Champions League this season, with 23, nor that Erling Haaland rattled in 20 to take the silver medal position.
Would you have had Real forward Rodrygo third though? It isn’t even close either, with his total of 19 at least six more than the chasing pack and eight more than anyone who will be taking part in this match.
Playing German clubs away from the Bernabeu may be his kryptonite, as he didn’t test the goalkeepers of RB Leipzig or Bayern Munich on the road in the earlier rounds. But with two shots on target in all four of Madrid’s other knockout phase matches, Rodrygo should be able to fire off at least one against Dortmund.
Karim Adeyemi to Commit 1 or more Fouls
It’s natural to focus on defenders or holding midfielders in the foul-committing markets. Eduardo Camavinga has been penalised for the third most fouls in the 2023/24 Champions League and is the favourite to commit one or more in the final.
However, top of the fouls chart is Kai Havertz and he’s hardly the most imposing presence. The same could be said for Dortmund’s attacking midfielder Karim Adeyemi. He’s a good presser, only 11 players in the Bundesliga averaged more final third regains per 90 minutes this season, and the cost of doing that business is the occasional foul.
Adeyemi has given away a free kick in nine Champions League matches this term, the joint most of any player. He won’t commit many fouls but he’s a reliable source of at least one.
Niclas Fullkrug to be Fouled 1 or more Times
The most fouled player from either side in the Champions League in 2023/24 is Jude Bellingham (who is the fifth most overall). The England midfielder has been impeded in nine games, a tally only Harry Kane can match. Watch for that in Germany this summer.
Only one behind Bellingham in the latter stat is Niclas Fullkrug. He started all six knockout matches and was fouled in four of them, while also drawing a free kick in 22 of his 29 Bundesliga starts this term. With Madrid likely to be defending a lead for at least some of the match, we can expect Fullkrug to be fouled.
Emre Can to be Shown a Card
One player who won’t foul Fullkrug is his Dortmund teammate Emre Can. He faced Madrid in the 2018 final, though if you can remember anything about that match that isn’t Loris Karius based then fair play.
Can didn’t pick up a booking that day but only Ousmane Dembele has more yellow cards in the competition this season. The former Liverpool man is also one of just four players who committed three fouls without being booked at least twice in the knockout phase.
If that doesn’t mean Can is due a booking, it at least shows he’s lucky not to have received more. Match referee Slavko Vincic has averaged four yellow cards per game across his Champions League career. One should be heading in Can’s direction at Wembley.
Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid Bet Builder Tips
Vinicius Junior to Score
Rodrygo to have 1 or more Shots on Target
Karim Adeyemi to Commit 1 or more Fouls
Niclas Fullkrug to be Fouled 1 or more Times
Emre Can to be Shown a Card
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 17/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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