The 2023/24 Premier League season draws to a close this Sunday. In theory there are a few issues to resolve, but we all know what will happen: Manchester City will win the league and Luton will be unable to overturn their goal difference disadvantage of 12 to stay up. City might score 12 against West Ham, I suppose.
But the Champions League qualifiers are settled, Tottenham should finish fifth and Chelsea sixth. A few mid-table places may change hands, but other than that everything looks done.
That doesn’t mean we can’t have a bet though. The results of games with nothing riding on them are hard to predict, so let’s look at some player props instead.
With Paddy Power’s Super Sub offer, if the player you select in certain markets is substituted, the person who replaces them takes on your bet.
So don’t despair if your player of choice gets the hook from their manager, all is not lost. Here’s a selection for all 10 matches for you to consider.
Arsenal v Everton
Bukayo Saka To Have 1 or More Shots On Target
Bukayo Saka has had 31 shots on target this season, the joint 15th most in the division. He’s one of only six men to have had at least 100 efforts in total too.
While that shows his shooting isn’t the sharpest, an Everton defence with nothing to play for should cough up better chances than usual. Saka has had at least one shot on target in his last five matches so should have one here too.
Brentford v Newcastle Utd
Alexander Isak To Score Or Assist
Newcastle striker Alexander Isak is in fine form with nine goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances, even though he failed to net in the previous two. He has also created 10 chances without an assist in his last eight games, so may set a goal up rather than score one at Brentford.
But if not, we may be saved by Harvey Barnes. He is the joint-top scoring sub in the top flight this season and only five players have delivered more assists from the bench. With 14 substitute run outs and only six starts, Barnes could be the man to replace Isak if he’s having a bad day.
Brighton v Manchester Utd
Diogo Dalot to be Shown a Card
Diogo Dalot enters the weekend just outside the Premier League top 20 for fouls committed this season. However, there are 69 players with more yellow cards.
He appears to have been fortunate recently with 27 fouls committed since his last yellow, and in four of the matches he fouled at least three times. With card-friendly Craig Pawson running the show at Brighton, Dalot’s luck might be about to run out.
Burnley v Nottingham Forest
Chris Wood To Score Anytime
While Nottingham Forest are effectively safe, Nuno Espirito Santo will want his side to win at Turf Moor to finish the season well. With Burnley having the second worst home defence in the Premier League, they should at least score.
No man in the division is more due a goal than Forest forward Chris Wood. In his last four games, the Kiwi has had 13 shots worth a total of 2.9 expected goals and drawn a blank. That run should end against the Clarets. Cheers!
Chelsea v Bournemouth
Marcos Senesi to be Shown a Card
Of the 10 referees selected for duty this weekend, the one with the highest yellow cards per game average this season is Anthony Taylor, and he’s off to Stamford Bridge.
He should find Bournemouth’s Marcos Senesi waiting for him. The Argentine central defender has collected 12 bookings in 2023/24, just one fewer than the leading bad boy, Joao Palhinha.
With Chelsea in form and liable to do most of the attacking, Senesi could easily collect a card from Taylor. The Bournemouth man has only completed 17 of his 25 starts so this could be one where Super Sub saves you too.
Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
Ollie Watkins To Score Anytime
Aston Villa has never had one of their players score 20 goals in a Premier League season. Christian Benteke fell one short in 2012/13, then later represented Crystal Palace, where he fell very short indeed.
Ollie Watkins has 19 goals this season and only Diego Carlos stopped him getting his 20th against Liverpool on Monday night. But he should get opportunities at Selhurst Park and can take one to set an outright club record.
Liverpool v Wolves
Mohamed Salah To Score Anytime
In his last six Premier League matches, Mohamed Salah has had as many touchline spats with Jurgen Klopp as he has scored goals.
His 16 shots in those games were worth a collective 2.7 expected goals, though, so another goal is coming. Salah has scored in Wolves’ last four visits to Anfield and as they have conceded the joint-most penalty goals in 2023/24, he could get a chance from the spot too.
Luton Town v Fulham
Carlton Morris To Commit 1 Or More Fouls
With 49 fouls committed, at least 14 more than any of his teammates, Carlton Morris is Luton’s dirtiest player in the eyes of referees.
As our man in black here, Matt Donohue, oversees just his second Premier League match, he may not have an opinion on Morris yet. But he whistled for 28 fouls on his top flight debut, so with that hit rate the Luton attacker should be penalised at least once.
Manchester City v West Ham
Kevin De Bruyne Anytime Assist
Advising you to back Kevin De Bruyne to set up a goal is a bit of a no-brainer, isn’t it? He’s joint second in the assist standings for 2023/24 despite featuring in less than half of the matches.
But in his last 10 league games, De Bruyne has created chances worth 7.9 expected assists and only six of his passes have been converted. He’s red hot and still due an assist, with West Ham very unlikely to offer much resistance.
Sheffield Utd v Tottenham
Dejan Kulusevski To Commit 1 Or More Fouls
Sheffield United have been so poor this season, Tottenham players shouldn’t need to foul them too often. But if they do, Dejan Kulusevski is the man for the job.
He was only a sub against Manchester City in midweek, so should come back into Ange Postecoglou’s starting XI here. Every time Kulusevski has started in the 2023/24 Premier League, he has committed at least one foul. Don’t spoil your perfect record, Dejan, put the boot in.
- From the above list, the four Super Sub bets that most take my fancy are:
Alexander Isak To Score Or Assist
Chris Wood To Score Anytime
Marcos Senesi to be Shown a Card
Mohamed Salah To Score Anytime
- A Bet Builder with these four selections pays at approximately 33/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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