Football Tips: Leeds v Norwich to go the distance in this 35/1 Bet Builder

Football tipster James O'Rourke finds five value picks for Thursday's Championship play-off semi final second leg.

By / Football Tips / 4 months ago

Leeds v Norwich Bet Builder Tips

Method of Victory: Either Team on Penalties
Under 3.5 Goals
Norwich to Have Three or More Shots On Target
Junior Firpo to Commit 1 or More Fouls
Jack Stacey to Commit 1 or More Fouls

All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Leeds v Norwich (Agg: 0-0)
Championship Play-Off Semi-Final Second Leg match at Elland Road, Leeds
TV: Sky Sports Main Event, Thursday, 8:00pm

Method Of Victory: Either Team On Penalties

A tight and cagey first-leg tie on Sunday produced an overall xG of 0.76 and the neutral will be hoping for more goal-mouth action in Thursday’s second leg. It could be argued it should be even closer here given the carrot of Wembley is so tantalising near and one major error could be all it takes. It should be more eventful, however, come full time there shouldn’t be much to separate these.

It may be that spot kicks are what it takes after 120 gruelling minutes of action. Anyone who watched the first leg would not be surprised to see this happen. Leeds being at home will have a go here, but they’ve recently lacked a bit of bite in attack and may again have issues in and around the final third. The away side will be quite happy to play more on the break, but Leeds are so strong defensively.

Under 3.5 Goals

Leeds will again be missing Patrick Bamford through injury and his absence does affect the balance of Daniel Farke’s team. Joël Piroe didn’t start the first leg, with Farke electing to push Georginio Rutter into a striker role. Although he has experience playing here, he has undoubtedly excelled more in the 10 position whilst at Leeds. He took up areas of that nature in the first leg, whereas Bamford would take on more typical centre-forward space. This reduces Leeds’ goal threat.
Norwich started the first leg well and, arguably should’ve been ahead at halftime. However, they retreated into their shell after this and that could be telling for how they’ll approach the match at Elland Road. Injury concerns over Josh Sargent and Ashley Barnes are particularly concerning and David Wagner will be desperately hoping both are fit.

Norwich To Have 3 Or More Shots On Target

Playing for extra time and penalties is always a very risky strategy in these sorts of occasions and Wagner surely won’t be looking for his team to do that. Their second-half showing in the first leg was a bit of a concern given they did sit back and offered little going forward, but that cannot be the way forward.

The likes of Gabriel Sara, Borja Sainz, Jon Rowe and the should-be-fit Sargent excel when defence quickly turns into attack and can catch Leeds cold. The hosts should be quite aggressive in their offensive approach and it’ll open up avenues for The Canaries to exploit. Only five times in all competitions in 2024 have Norwich not hit three or more shots on target. Plus, if they fall behind, they’ll have to open up and Leeds would face considerable pressure.

Junior Firpo to Commit 1 or more Fouls

This part of the season is simply high pressure and when that is the case a lot is learned about players. In the case of Junior Firpo, his recent fouling figures suggest he doesn’t necessarily keep his cool so well when a lot is riding on the match. Over Leeds’ previous six matches, which were all huge given they were chasing automatic promotion and then played a play-off last time out, the former Barcelona man is averaging 1.66 fouls per game. Over the last three, he has produced two or more.

In the seven games before the recent six-match swing, Firpo only made three fouls, which is when the pressure was not as great given there weren’t so few fixtures remaining.

Jack Stacey to Commit 1 or more Fouls

Similarly to Firpo, Jack Stacey has not coped too well recently with the situation of needing results. In the first leg, he committed two fouls, something he also did on the final day of the league season when they lost at Birmingham. Before this, it would be back in March when he last conceded at least two fouls in a match.

From a tactical perspective, he will likely have a busy night on Thursday. Leeds are a big threat in the wide areas, especially down the left through Crysencio Summerville and Stacey, who isn’t afraid to get forward, could be caught out. This opens the door for a tactical foul or two, as well. Only in five games since the start of February has Stacey not produced at least one foul in a match.

 

LEEDS V NORWICH BETTING TIPS

Method of Victory: Either Team on Penalties
Under 3.5 Goals
Norwich to Have Three or More Shots On Target
Junior Firpo to Commit 1 or More Fouls
Jack Stacey to Commit 1 or More Fouls

All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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