Football Tips: Diaz on target in this 27/1 Liverpool v Tottenham Bet Builder

Our tipster Andrew Beasley studies the numbers for Sunday's big game.

Liverpool v Tottenham Betting Tips

BET BUILDER

Liverpool To Win
Both Teams To Score
Luis Diaz To Score
Over 12.5 Corners
Over 4.5 Cards

The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now

Sunday 4:30pm: Liverpool v Tottenham
Premier League match at Anfield
TV: Sky Sports Premier League

“Well done, boys. Good process.”

When the 2023/24 Premier League season’s story is written, it will include those five words. Liverpool supporters have been compiling examples of weird refereeing and VAR decisions which went against them this season, and while there have been a few, disallowing Luis Diaz’s goal at Tottenham was the granddaddy of them all.

He was incorrectly given offside at the ground, confirmed as onside by the VAR. But still, the goal wasn’t awarded. Still, referee Simon Hooper was happy with the outcome, the infamous five words above.

The Reds also had two men sent off and lost to a 96th-minute own goal. Larry David has optioned the film rights. While none of this was Tottenham’s fault, injustice burns deep. Never mind that the Reds are out of the title race, they and their fans will be gunning for a big win here.

Liverpool To Win

Liverpool’s form has collapsed. The Reds accumulated eight wins and a draw from the nine games before their FA Cup defeat at Old Trafford. They’ve won just four of nine since, losing three times, proving that being beaten by a Manchester United team this bad knocks the world off its axis and spells doom.

The main issue has been finishing rather than a complete collapse in performance though. In their 16 league and European matches since a loss at Arsenal three months ago, Liverpool have only lost the expected goal count once. They can confidently dominate against Tottenham, who haven’t won at Anfield since 2011. The Reds will also be far more well-rested, with Spurs playing at Stamford Bridge on Thursday night.

That game hasn’t happened at the time of writing, so let’s assume both teams received three red cards and Chelsea won 5-4. It wouldn’t be weirder than the last time they met. Ange Postecoglou has returned fun and vibes to Tottenham after the misery and flat-back-six of many of their recent managers, but results haven’t improved massively. With Spurs having the slog of a rare midweek game in a campaign without European football, pick Liverpool to win Jürgen Klopp’s penultimate Anfield match.

Both Teams To Score

While the Reds will win, they will also concede. It’s just what they do. Liverpool have kept nine clean sheets in the league this season. Even if they finish with 12, which feels unlikely, it will be their joint fewest in a full campaign under Klopp. But even if the Reds were in rock-solid form, you’d back Tottenham to get at least one goal.
Both teams have scored in the last seven meetings and the previous six at Anfield. With Liverpool joint-top of the Premier League for victories while conceding this season – usually because they go behind – we can expect both teams to score on Sunday.

Luiz Diaz To Score

None of Liverpool’s forwards have been in form over the last few weeks. Mohamed Salah was so annoyed that he had a barney with Klopp on the touchline last weekend. Their liveliest attacker has been Luis Diaz. In his last six league outings, the Colombian has had 17 shots worth a combined 2.6 expected goals and only scored once. He’s due a goal. Diaz also has a good record against Spurs. He’s scored all three times he has played them, it’s just VAR incompetence that has given him one blank in the record books.

Over 12.5 Corners

These teams have gone corner crazy this season. There were 17 last time they met, though Liverpool hanging on for dear life with nine men contributed to that. Even so, they are both among the top four Premier League teams for corners per game and Tottenham are joint-second for matches which saw at least 13 of them. With a recent meeting at Anfield having featured 16, we can reasonably expect Over 12.5 Corners this time.

He’s not that card-happy and we’ll take the Under here.

Over 4.5 Cards

This will be an emotional occasion for Klopp, as it will surely be his last meeting with Paul Tierney, the referee with whom he has said he has a problem. Much of that stems from a meeting of these teams in north London in 2021. Harry Kane committed a foul by jumping in two-footed on Andy Robertson but was not sent off by Tierney. You would think Klopp had been in this country long enough to know England captains receive special treatment.

Maybe the Liverpool manager has a point anyway. In his Premier League career, Tierney has averaged 3.4 yellow cards per game, a slightly higher 3.7 in the last three seasons. Yet in his previous eight games at Anfield, he has averaged 5.6 cards and only shown fewer than five once. Tierney will brandish Over 4.5 Cards here and Klopp will probably knock him out at full time. Glorious Barclays.

Liverpool v Tottenham Bet Builder Tips

Liverpool To Win
Both Teams To Score
Luis Diaz To Score
Over 12.5 Corners
Over 4.5 Cards

All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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