Aston Villa v Chelsea Bet Builder Tips
Aston Villa to Win
Over 3.5 Goals
Ollie Watkins Anytime Goalscorer
Under 10.5 Corners
Under 4.5 Cards
- A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 24/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Premier League match at Villa Park, Birmingham
TV: TNT Sports, Saturday, 8pm
Saturday night football this week takes us to Villa Park, and a match that will put the last three years into sharp focus. On the final day of the 2020/21 season, Aston Villa beat Chelsea 2-1 and finished 11th in the league. It didn’t matter to Thomas Tuchel’s Blues, who were in the top four and would win the Champions League final the following weekend.
If the tables haven’t quite turned entirely, they’re heading in that direction. Villa are odds-on for a top-four finish and favourites to win the Europa Conference League this season. Chelsea, meanwhile, should finish above 11th but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they didn’t.
Aston Villa to Win
After their dismal 5-0 loss at Arsenal on Tuesday, the words ‘billion’, ‘blue’ and ‘bottle jobs’ sprang immediately to mind. “It costs a lot of money to look this cheap.” Do you know which philosopher said that? Dolly Parton. She must have a season ticket at Stamford Bridge. If she does, Dolly would’ve seen Villa win 0-1 there in September and 0-2 the season before.
This is a match-up that has heavily favoured the away side in recent years, with Chelsea winning on their last three trips to this claret and blue corner of the West Midlands. But that’s the only factor that suggests Mauricio Pochettino’s men will win this match. They have been largely abysmal on the road against the top half of the Premier League this season.
Aside from their win against nine-men Tottenham and a point at the Etihad, they have lost at Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester United, and West Ham by an aggregate scoreline of 18-4.
Unai Emery’s side will be well-motivated for this match too. A win would put them nine points clear of fifth-placed Spurs, and while Ange Postecoglou’s boys will have three matches in hand, they must face the top three teams in the table before the season is out. Villa have been a little inconsistent at what was fortress Villa Park recently. In the last six league games there, Manchester United and Tottenham have won while Brentford earned a 3-3 draw. They have to win this one, though, they have to. Have you seen Chelsea this season?
Over 3.5 Goals
Despite everything we’ve said, there’s a possibility that the visitors make a game of it. Chelsea are only behind the top three teams for expected goals this season, it has been finishing which has let them down. And the same could happen here, but four of the last five meetings at Villa Park have seen both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals.
That has also been the case in 20 of the Villans’ league matches this season, with only Tottenham (23) and Luton (22) seeing that outcome more times. Bear in mind too that Villa and Chelsea are two of only four teams to see at least four goals in over half of their Premier League matches. As that’s the case, we’ll add Over 3.5 Goals to our Bet Builder.
Ollie Watkins Anytime Goalscorer
The man most likely to grab at least one of them is Ollie Watkins. He and Cole Palmer have both been in fine form recently. Across their previous 10 league matches, they’ve scored eight and 11 goals respectively.
“Cold” Palmer might be a bit green around the gills for this match, though, having missed the Arsenal match on Tuesday night due to illness. Perhaps he just had a premonition regarding how the match would go? You don’t need to be psychic.
Watkins has four goals and two assists over his last five appearances at Villa Park, so is in great form in front of his adoring faithful. He can keep that run rolling with a goal here.
Don’t forget about our new Super Sub offer where if you back a player in certain markets, if they’re substituted their picks transfer over to who they’ve been replaced by. Read more about Paddy Power’s Super Sub offer here.
Under 10.5 Corners
By whatever method Watkins scores, it probably won’t be from a corner. Both sides are below league average for the total corners in their games in 2023/24. There also haven’t been that many in the recent meetings hosted by Villa, with the last two league clashes seeing no more than eight.
That trend has played out this season too, with only Brentford and Brighton seeing fewer home games pay out on Over 10.5 Corners. So, you know what to do: take the under.
Under 4.5 Cards
Paddy Power expects there to be a lot of cards shown in this match. With both teams riding high in the total yellow cards table this term, that’s a logical enough position to take.
Yet only one of the five Villa Park meetings since the home side was last promoted featured more than four bookings. Our match referee Craig Pawson is one of the more card-shy in the Premier League too. He’s shown 3.6 per game in the top flight, a slightly higher 4.0 in the last three seasons.
By this logic, we should finish with an Under 4.5 Cards selection.
Aston Villa v Chelsea Betting Tips
Aston Villa to Win
Over 3.5 Goals
Ollie Watkins Anytime Goalscorer
Under 10.5 Corners
Under 4.5 Cards
- A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 24/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
THIS WEEKEND’S FOOTBALL TIPS
- Football Tips: Friday’s 12/1 QPR v Leeds Bet Builder
- Football Accumulator Tips: Friday night’s 37/1 Flutter from the UK & Europe
- Football Accumulator Tips: Saturday’s 3pm 13/1 Championship Wager
- Football Accumulator Tips: Saturday night’s 23/1 MLS Wager
READ MORE
- Shoot on over to Paddy Power News for the best Football Betting Tips & News
- Premier League Sack Race: Which Manager is Next to get the Boot in 2023/24?
- Introducing Paddy’s Bet Builder All Stars! Sign up now to bag a free bet & win prizes
- Paddy’s Hall of Fame: Monster 23-fold footie acca nets a mammoth £2,539 off £1 stake for Paddy Power punter
- Premier League Title Race: Odds, fixtures and table as Liverpool lead the pack
- Introducing Paddy Power’s Super Sub – where your bet rolls over if your selection goes off!
THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
