Brentford v Man Utd Bet Builder Tips
Manchester United To Win
Both Teams to Score
Marcus Rashford To Score Anytime
Under 10.5 Corners
Over 4.5 Cards
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Saturday 8pm: Brentford v Manchester United
Premier League match at the Gtech Community Stadium
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League
Hello, good evening and welcome to the Brentford Community Stadium for one of the biggest matches of the season, the xG versus Vibes derby. In the red corner, we have Brentford, whose goal difference is 13 worse than expected goals suggests it should be.
They are facing Manchester United, the team which should be third in the table based on money invested in the squad, but who instead start the weekend in sixth and deserve to be 10th according to the underlying numbers. If matches were decided by xG, these teams would be two points apart instead of the 21 which they are in the Premier League table. What the hell is going to happen in this match?
Manchester United To Win
You probably recall that Brentford smashed United in the corresponding fixture last season, racing into a 4-0 lead in the opening 35 minutes. The Red Devils have won the two meetings since, but neither was achieved in particularly convincing fashion: it was 1-0 at Old Trafford last season, then 2-1 in October thanks to 93rd and 97th minute goals from Scott McTominay.
As you might guess from the introduction, the data suggests the Bees are a very good value price to win against a side whose numbers are deeply unimpressive. Unfortunately for Thomas Frank, Brentford’s recent record is just as underwhelming.
They sit bottom of the six-game form table, which is quite some going when Luton haven’t won for eight matches and Everton 11. If the Bees can take anything from this recent poor run, it’s that their one point was earned in a home draw against Chelsea, another heavily financed and underachieving outfit.
But United have done well in matches such as this. A defeat at Nottingham Forest aside, they have won every match against sides currently in the bottom six, home or away.
They should be buzzing from knocking Liverpool out of the FA Cup too, even if the international break will have dampened momentum from that triumph a little. Nonetheless, this should be a victory for vibes. United to win.
Both Teams to Score
But that’s not to say Team xG won’t also find the net at least once. Brentford are joint-top of the division for home games in which both teams scored, with it occurring in 12 of their 14 games in front of their own fans.
The only instance in which the Bees failed to score was against Arsenal, the team with the best defensive record in the land. United are nowhere near close to their level at the back (or the front) and as Brentford have scored in both home games against them in the Premier League, both teams will score here.
Marcus Rashford To Score Anytime
Marcus Rashford has not had a good season overall in 2023/24 but he has scored in United’s last three matches, the only player for whom that is the case. He also netted the only goal of the game when these sides met in April last year and was among the scorers in the Red Devils’ 3-1 win at Brentford in 2022.
Best of all, Rashford largely had the international break off, only emerging from the England bench for the final 15 minutes of the loss against Brazil. Rashford is rested and in form, so should score on Saturday evening.
Under 10.5 Corners
The match up of these teams is rare in a corner sense, as all five meetings in the last three seasons have seen at least 10 (with an average of 12.6). That general trend has been even stronger for United in 2023/24, with them having had the joint-most games pay out on Over 10.5 corners.
Yet Brentford have had the joint-fewest home games where this has been the case. As such, the odds for there to be Under 10.5 Corners look worth including in our Bet Builder.
Over 4.5 Cards
Games at Brentford have fluctuated wildly on the card count – there were none when they hosted Crystal Palace, but 10 yellows and two reds when Aston Villa came calling. United’s road games have been a bit more reliable, with only their previous match, at the Etihad, seeing fewer than three cards, and 10 of the 14 trips featuring at least four.
As the last two meetings of these teams saw five bookings and match referee Simon Hooper has averaged 4.6 per game this season, Over 4.5 Cards is our final selection. Now, pass me my xG scarf, they need my backing for this game.
Brentford v Manchester United Betting Tips
Manchester United To Win
Both Teams to Score
Marcus Rashford To Score Anytime
Under 10.5 Corners
Over 4.5 Cards
- A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 27/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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