Subs are more important than ever in the Premier League – here’s why

Subs are more important than ever - and not just because of Paddy's new Super Sub offer!

By / Football News, Football Tips / 2 months ago

Substitutes in the Premier League

Football is more of a squad game than it ever has been before. The Premier League finally caught up with most other top leagues by permitting managers to make five substitutions ahead of the 2022/23 season, and the impact was immediate. 

Last season, there were 132 goals scored by subs in the English top flight, which equates to 0.17 per game. The maximum across the previous six Premier League campaigns was 111 and the average was 102, so the rise was significant.

But it was nothing compared to 2023/24. Substitute benches have already contributed 112 goals (0.22 per game), meaning there will be 165 by the end of the season at the current rate. Where it traditionally took 21 subs for a goal to be scored, that figure has dropped to 18 this season.

If you look up how many minutes non-starters are getting, their playing time hasn’t changed. But that’s because data sites only count to the 90th minute, and referees are now stricter with their timekeeping than ever before. An article in The Guardian this month noted that Premier League added time has clocked in at 11:41 on average this term when it was 8:27 last season.

More substitutions mean that players remain fresher throughout the campaign, and those who come off the bench are getting longer to make an impact. This all inevitably has an influence on the outcome of your bets in markets like Match Odds, Over/Under Goals, and Both Teams to Score, and will certainly be relevant to Paddy Power’s new Super Sub offer.

Super Subs

One issue when making a goal scorer bet is that your chosen player may not complete the 90 minutes. According to FBRef, Jarrod Bowen is the only forward in the Premier League who has averaged 90 minutes per start this season, whereas the Brazilian pair of Richarlison and Gabriel Martinelli play 75 and 74 minutes on average respectively. 

Although the Tottenham man has scored four fewer goals than his West Ham counterpart, by playing less it means his goals have come along more frequently. But on any given Sunday, or whatever day they get ordered to play by TV companies, Bowen is perhaps more likely to score simply because he is far likelier to see out the game. 

This is where the Super Sub offer comes in. If you place a bet on an Anytime Goal Scorer and that player is substituted, the man who replaces them becomes your selection. The game has changed. 

And with goals from subs having gone through the roof as we have seen, there has never been a better time for punters to take advantage of this offer.

An article on BBC Sport in October noted that Premier League added time clocked in at 11:33 on average at that point this term when it had been 8:27 last season.

More substitutions means players remain fresher throughout the campaign, and those who come off the bench are getting longer to make an impact. This all inevitably has an influence on the outcome of your bets in markets like Match Odds, Over/Under Goals and Both Teams to Score, and will certainly be relevant to Paddy Power’s new Super Sub offer.

Clubs and Players to watch

It’s no surprise that over the longer term, the bigger clubs get the most goals from substitutes. Since 2016/17 and the beginning of the Pep Guardiola era, Manchester United have drawn the most goals from their bench in the Premier League (68), ahead of Liverpool (65), Arsenal (64) and Manchester City (58). Fergie must be proud of how his successors are using the added time named in his honour. 

However, give a smart manager a half-decent squad and they can have an edge in the smaller sample of a single season. Brighton lead the division for substitute goals in 2023/24 with 12 and Wolves (nine) are fourth, with Mikel Arteta dancing out of his technical area and past Jürgen Klopp (10) into second place with 11. 

With an eye on this weekend, Brighton, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Wolves are all away from home, so they could be looking for goals as the clock ticks down. Their subs might save the day, and your Anytime Goal Scorer bet at the same time.

In terms of players, the Seagulls’ Joao Pedro and Man United’s Scott McTominay lead the way having both scored four times as a sub this season, while Martinelli and Leandro Trossard each have three. Perhaps McSauce will need to contribute at the Etihad on Sunday, to score from the bench against City just as he did in 2020?

His and Pedro’s four goals may not sound like many but there were only three instances of a player scoring more in the preceding seven campaigns. Olivier Giroud scored six in both 2016/17 and the following season, while Edinson Cavani bagged five from the bench in 2020/21. 

Of course, by scoring those goals Pedro has earned himself a spot in the starting XI, so his days of being held back for the second half may be over. But remember, with Paddy Power’s Super Sub offer, you would get Pedro’s replacement if he starts but comes off, and as Evan Ferguson and Ansu Fati are Brighton’s joint-most used substitutes, they might then carry your goalscorer bet. 

As always, data can be your friend here. It’s easy to find which players come off the bench every time they’re on there, and this season that group includes Cody Gakpo, Callum Wilson, and Chris Wood. 

They’re maybe not the most reliable scorers (else they’d be starting every week) but if you’re making an Anytime Goal Scorer bet after teams are announced and those players are among the substitutes, you know there’s a good chance they’ll replace a starting forward at some point. Paddy Power has made it easier for your selection to pay out, so do your research and make the most of it. 

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