Football Tips: Wilson on Target in our 25/1 Nottingham Forest v Newcastle Bet Builder

Football tipster Andrew Beasley has Toon taking Forest down.

Nottingham Forest v Newcastle Bet Builder Tips, Premier League, saturday 10th February 2024

By / Football Tips / 10 months ago

Nottingham Forest v Newcastle Bet Builder Tips

Newcastle to Win
Both Teams to Score
Callum Wilson to Score
Under 9.5 Corners
Under 4.5 Cards

    Nottingham Forest v Newcastle
    Premier League match at The City Ground, Nottingham
    TV: Sky Sports Main Event, Saturday, 5:30pm

    These are dark days for Nottingham Forest. A potential points deduction hangs over the club and with Luton on the march it can ill-afford to lose any. As the Hatters are at home to Sheffield United earlier in the day, Forest might be below them when this match kicks off at 5:30pm on Saturday.

    While the home side have taken a modest seven points from six games since Nuno Espirito Santo replaced Steve Cooper, three of them came via a very impressive victory at Newcastle. Another win over Saudi FC would kickstart the home side’s survival bid.

    Newcastle to Win

    Paddy Power understandably has Newcastle as favourites to win this match, yet the expected goal data for 2023/24 paints Forest as the likelier victor. But the thing is, after Liverpool set a Premier League xG record against the Magpies at Anfield, the away stats for Eddie Howe’s side will always look ugly.

    Forest might have been a bit better than their points tally suggests and a little unlucky in a few games, but they can’t put teams to the sword like the Reds can. Indeed, they have the lowest home xG total in the division, squeaking narrowly above Burnley on a per-game basis.

    Nuno’s boys were also a little flattered by the scoreline in the reverse fixture in the northeast, with Newcastle scoring once from 2.4 expected goals and squandering three Opta-defined big chances.

    The visitors may still be suffering shell shock from their remarkable 4-4 draw with Luton last weekend. But they come into this game on the back of three consecutive away victories in all competitions and won the previous City Ground meeting 2-1 in March.

    Newcastle have also had a full week to prepare for this match while Forest had an FA Cup replay against Bristol City on Wednesday night. With this advantage plus the small matter of better players, Newcastle should win.

        Both Teams to Score

        Newcastle’s matches top the division for average goals while Forest are joint-fifth bottom. Can we expect a goal fest or a snooze fest as we get ready for our Saturday night out?

        Five of the last six meetings saw both teams score and over 2.5 goals, so the head-to-head form book is in favour of some entertainment.
        Forest’s record since it’s managerial switch says the same. They have scored and conceded in all six league matches under Nuno and only the 1-1 draw at Bournemouth last weekend paid out on under 2.5 goals. Everything points towards both teams scoring, so pop that on your Bet Builder.

        Callum Wilson to Score

        Callum Wilson has endured an injury-hit campaign, but as he has yet to be an unused substitute in 2023/24, we can be confident he’ll figure here, and maybe even start.

        The England international hasn’t scored in any of his last six Premier League matches, amassing 1.35 expected goals in those games. Indeed, across their last four games, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the only player in the division to amass more xG without finding the net. Wilson scored against Forest last season and he can do so again here.

        Under 9.5 Corners

        Clearly, you don’t need me to tell you that Forest have had the fewest home corners in the 2023/24 Premier League, everybody knows that. But did you know that they’ve also allowed the third most?

        Even so, the total is low, and only Brighton have recorded fewer total corners on the road than Newcastle this season. The three meetings since Forest were promoted all hit double figures in the corner count but everything else suggests this match will not. Take the Under 9.5 Corners option.

        Under 4.5 Cards

        Yellow cards also look likely to be thin on the ground, again because Forest don’t get many at home.

        There have been five red cards at the City Ground this season, 12 per cent of the Premier League total and far more than the stadium’s fair share, but sendings off are too random to predict. As Forest have had more matches payout on over 3.5 cards on the road and Newcastle more at home, it makes sense to aim low for this one.

        The one random factor is Anthony Taylor, part of the PGMOL’s Illuminati of bald referees. He showed 10 yellow cards in Arsenal’s win over Liverpool last weekend, so his presence increases the chances of bookings. Even so, we should be safe for Under 4.5 Cards thanks to the placid nature of the teams.

        Nottingham Forest v Newcastle Bet Builder Tips

        Newcastle to Win
        Both Teams to Score
        Callum Wilson to Score
        Under 9.5 Corners
        Under 4.5 Cards

        All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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