Football Tips: Aston Villa to edge out Newcastle in our 29/1 Bet Builder

Our tipster Sam Farley is backing Unai Emery's men to get the job done.

Aston Villa v Newcastle Betting Tips:

Aston Villa to Win
Under 2.5 Goals
Bruno Guimaraes to Commit 2 or More Fouls
Ollie Watkins to Score or Assist
Ezri Konsa to be Fouled 1 or More Times

    Aston Villa v Newcastle
    Premier League
    Villa Park, Birmingham, Tuesday, 8:15pm
    TNT Sports 1

    We’ve got five Premier League games on Tuesday, the pick of which has to be Aston Villa vs Newcastle. Unai Emery’s team sit fourth in the Premier League, just five points behind top place Liverpool and very much in the title race. Meanwhile Newcastle look to halt their slide that’s seen them drop to 10th in the Premier League.

    The best way to enjoy a bet on this game has to be with a Bet Builder, so don’t miss our 29/1 Bet Builder on Aston Villa vs Newcastle.

    Aston Villa to win

    This hasn’t been the best run for Aston Villa, winning just two of their past five in the Premier League but it’s streets ahead of Newcastle’s league form that has them losing four on the spin. That run of poor form has seen Newcastle drop to 10th in the Premier League table while Aston Villa are still in the title hunt.

    There’s a gulf in class between these teams right now, with Villa now only scoring more than Newcastle but being tighter at the back also. They’ve been exceptional home too, and if you look across the Premier League at each teams form in their last eight home games it’s Villa who are top, with seven wins, a draw and 22 goals scored, to just seven conceded. Unai Emery has crafted a smart team who will be able to show their class and secure the three points here.

    Under 2.5 goals

    I’m expecting a low scoring game at Villa Park. The home side have the fourth best defensive record in the Premier League, while Eddie Howe is surely going to try and halt his team’s slide down the table by taking a defence first approach on the road against one of the better teams in the division.

    Across Villa’s past four games at home they’ve seen Under 2.5 goals on three occasions and have managed to keep clean sheets to both Man City and Arsenal in that time span too. This is an elite team who have the capability to shut down the opposition.

    Ollie Watkins to score or assist

    It’s been another impressive season for Ollie Watkins who has arguably now cemented himself as the second best English striker behind Harry Kane. He’s the perfect forward for Unai Emery’s team. He’s got great movement and positioning that allows him to not only create chances for others but also to score.

    In 21 Premier League games he’s scored a total of nine goals and assisted another eight. We’re seeing him contribute towards a goal in nearly every single fixture. That said in his past three games, two of which were in the FA Cup, he hasn’t managed to score or assist, so he’s surely due one now.

    Bruno Guimaraes to commit 2 or more fouls

    Newcastle’s Brazilian midfielder Bruno Guimaraes is the heartbeat of his team. It’s between him and Anthony Gordon as the team’s best performer this season but one thing the 26-year old hasn’t been able to shake is his tendency for giving up fouls.

    We’ve seen Guimaraes give up an average of 1.6 fouls per game in the Premier League this season, so we’re going to back him to commit 2 or more here. That’s slightly above his average but he’s going to have a tough afternoon against a talented Villa midfielder with Douglas Luiz and Boubacar Kamara capable of making this a physical battle, while the likes of John McGinn and Leon Bailey might need to be taken down to stop Villa breaks.

    Ezri Konsa to be fouled 1 or more times

    To wrap up our Bet Builder we’re going to bet on Villa’s rightback Ezri Konsa getting fouled one or more times. Konsa has become a vital part of Emery’s team and gets up and down the flank, he’s forays forward have meant that he gets fouled 1.8 times per game in the Premier League. That’s tied for the most on the team with John McGinn and displays how important he is to the team.

    On that right flank he’s going to be up against Anthony Gordon and Dan Burn, both players who may struggle to combat him without bringing him down illegally just once. With that in mind we’ll be taking the bet on him getting fouled one or more times.

    Aston Villa v Newcastle Betting Tips:

    Aston Villa to Win
    Under 2.5 Goals
    Bruno Guimaraes to Commit 2 or More Fouls
    Ollie Watkins to Score or Assist
    Ezri Konsa to be Fouled 1 or More Times

    *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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